First Trick: Ace or Duck ?

[TWO4BRIDGE]

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Trick 1 : ♥5, ♣2, ♥Q, ??

[ggwhiz]

I have to duck and pray that lho has 3 clubs to go with the heart king.

[mikeh]

It doesn't matter.

 

Say you duck...win the continuation (if a club, win in hand).

 

Cash the spade winners, pitching a low club. Cash the diamonds.

 

You need LHO to hold 3+ clubs and you're playing him for the heart K, so at the point of cashing your last diamond, winning in hand, you've played 4 spades, 4 diamonds and one heart, and maybe a second heart or a club, depending on what RHO played at trick 2. In any event, LHO can't hold onto the club guard and the heart K.

 

But say you win trick one.

 

Run the spades, pitching a club, then the diamonds ending in hand.

 

You have played 9 cards, so have J9 in hearts in hand along with Ax in clubs and dummy has Kxxx in clubs.

 

LHO has to have stiffed the heart K to keep 3 clubs, so you exit a heart, establishing the J.

 

You will probably even be able to read the position, since LHO may have had to pitch the heart 10 in the end position. In fact, you can't really go wrong.

 

It ought to have been entirely foreseeable that diamonds would be better, and surely it ought to have been possible to find the fit? 7♦ is better than 6N, which ought to tell you something about the bidding.

[helene_t]

Win the first trick. If it appears that rho has the clubs you still have the chance that he has another heart honour and that you can guess which one.

[gszes]

Mikeh and helene_t both point out the importance of winning trick 1 since ducking does not

help and could easily hurt if rho returns a club at trick 2. There seems to be an extremely high

degree of probability that rho has 3 clubs---their p opened 2h at favorable and rho is looking

at 4 possibly 5 hearts and close to zero defense yet they failed to make a blocking bid. This

is probably because their hand is very balanced increasing the likelihood of their holding 3

clubs.If this is the case we can still come home playing the hand the way Mikeh shows by

carefully counting the heart pitches. If the heart T comes tumbling down we always make

by continuing with the heart J at trick 10. If the heart T does NOT come down we can choose

to play rho for 3 clubs and the heart T or 3 clubs and the heart K (far less likely imho).

 

The squeeze against lho operates automatically but against rho you have to guess which heart

honor they have left. If lho pitches down to 1 heart assume they hold 3 clubs and lead the heart 9

at trick TEN. If lho shows no pitching problems assume rho has the 3 clubs and lead the heart

J at trick TEN hoping to pin the heart T.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

As long as LHO has 3 cards ♣ ( Q or not ) , I see from Mikeh's answer that it doesn't matter whether you win-or-duck the first trick:

 

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[mikeh]

As long as LHO has 3 cards ♣ ( Q or not ) , I see from Mikeh's answer that it doesn't matter whether you win-or-duck the first trick:

 

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Technically, I think that winning the 1st trick is better, but the difference occurs only on hands on which LHO opened 2♥ with K8xxxx(x), and precisely 2 clubs.....I see that as vanishingly unlikely. Even if he did, ducking trick one costs only if RHO switches to a club, which would be a remarkably good play, considering that many 3 card holdings he may have will look very dangerous to him. QJx? I don't think so. Q10x? Maybe, but still dangerous. Jxx? ugh.

 

To see why, imagine he does switch to a club.

 

You have to win in hand, since you need to preserve dummy's A as the entry should you squeeze someone out of the long club guard.....if dummy has no entry, they can throw the long club with impunity.

 

So: you win in hand and run the pointed winners, ending in hand with void J9 void x and dummy has void void void Axx

 

If LHO held the club length and the heart K, he is down to stiff K and 2 clubs. You can establish your heart J by exiting the J, but he wins and leads a club and your good heart never takes a trick.

 

If RHO holds the club length, then there is no squeeze unless RHO also holds a second heart card....far more likely to be the 10 than the K, and the same problem exists...you exit the J, to smother the 10, but LHO wins and leads his last club. Note that this is why you are ok if clubs were 1-4, since LHO will be down to nothing but hearts.

 

Thus my first response, altho almost certainly true in real life, is technically incorrect. By winning the first trick, you prevent the damaging club attack at trick 2.

 

Incidentally, this point is a fairly standard theme in squeeze defence: the defence will often be very well-advised to attack communication in the squeeze suit. I seem to remember a Blue Team hand on which a defender sitting behind dummy who held a suit similar to AKJ9x, looking at xxx in the suit, correctly led the suit. His partner, with Q10xx, was about to be squeezed down to Q10x, after which the simple finesse gave the contract.

[awm]

I don't follow the reasoning where ducking is wrong. Say they switch to club and I win in hand. I run winners leaving me in hand with heart jack and a club. Dummy has club Ax. If the long clubs are with HK I am home.

 

One problem with ducking is the possibility that RHO has heart KQ with three clubs; this will be tough to determine from the discards if opponents are good.

[mikeh]

I don't follow the reasoning where ducking is wrong. Say they switch to club and I win in hand. I run winners leaving me in hand with heart jack and a club. Dummy has club Ax. If the long clubs are with HK I am home.

 

One problem with ducking is the possibility that RHO has heart KQ with three clubs; this will be tough to determine from the discards if opponents are good.

 

 

What you have missed (I think) is if RHO has Q10xx in hearts and the club length.

 

In the end position, he can pitch his hearts and you have no squeeze.

 

If you had won the first trick and then determined, through a fairly trivial count process, that he had 3 clubs, you'd have to play him for either Q10xx or KQxx, the latter seemingly impossible on the auction.

 

If the former, you cannot establish the clubs, but he has to have stiffed the heart 10, so you can drive out the K, by playing the J. And you have the club K to get back to your hand should LHO be able to exit a club.

[awm]

Thanks, this makes a lot more sense than the claims about a club shift disrupting the squeeze and the example layouts with the wrong number of cards appearing earlier in the thread. :)