Find 2 discards

[Cyberyeti]

[hv=pc=n&s=s86hakq5dakjcakt8&n=sq5ht762dt84cj542]133|200[/hv]

 

You play in 3N opps manage to block the spades but they do cash 4 of them leaving W on lead, what do you discard ? 8♣ and ?

[JLOGIC]

ten of clubs seems quite normal, it only costs on 4-1 hearts (not stiff J) and Qx of clubs compared to pitching a diamond, and it gives us the chance to cash AK of clubs and fall back on the diamond finesse among other things.

[Free]

Combine your chances and discard ♣T. You can try to drop ♣Q doubleton or fall back on the ♦ finesse. We need ♥T as an entry to either cash ♣J or finesse the ♦.

[Cyberyeti]

This was my first thought as well, team mate discarded the J♦ and went off when discarding the club was the winning action (♣ Qxx offside).

 

I thought the odds were quite close when I tried to do the calculation:

 

Pitch the club works when:

 

Hearts are 3-2 or stiff J, and (Q♣ drops singleton or doubleton or the diamond finesse works)

 

Pitching the diamond works when:

 

Hearts are 3-2 or stiff J and the Q♣ is onside or singleton offside, or Hearts misbehave and Q♣ drops doubleton (but not singleton in theory unless the man with 9xxx pitches one)

 

This appears to be (67.83 + 5.65)[(5.65+27.13) + 0.5(1-5.65-27.13)] = 48.78%

 

vs (67.83 + 5.65)(2.83 + 50) + (1-67.83-5.65)(27.13) = 46.01%

 

so slightly in favour of the club pitch, but not by much, and this narrows further if (as was the case) the field isn't great and the hand with ♣9xxx might pitch one.

[JLOGIC]

if LHO has Qxxx of clubs and the diamond hook is on a club pitch wins also.

[JLOGIC]

]

 

Pitching the diamond works when:

 

Hearts are 3-2 or stiff J and the Q♣ is onside

 

Also I don't know MATH but it seems like you're counting Qx of clubs onside with hearts splitting as a win for pitching a diamond, but that is not true, a club pitch is fine in that case. Also if Qxx of clubs are on and the diamond hook is on, then pitching a club is fine. It seems like you count that also as a win for pitching a diamond.

 

If you did not count those scenarios as wins for pitching a diamond and just misworded it then apologies. If you did count those and still found a club pitch to be superior then hopefully it is obvious how superior a club pitch really is.

[Cyberyeti]

Also I don't know MATH but it seems like you're counting Qx of clubs onside with hearts splitting as a win for pitching a diamond, but that is not true, a club pitch is fine in that case. Also if Qxx of clubs are on and the diamond hook is on, then pitching a club is fine. It seems like you count that also as a win for pitching a diamond.

 

If you did not count those scenarios as wins for pitching a diamond and just misworded it then apologies. If you did count those and still found a club pitch to be superior then hopefully it is obvious how superior a club pitch really is.

 

I wasn't counting anything as a win by virtue of it working when the other scenario didn't, I was just trying to calculate the absolute chance of each line working.

 

I think I've accounted for the scenarios you listed