benlessard Posted November 12, 2013 Report Share Posted November 12, 2013 Ive rarely played prec where 1D contained a bal range so ive wonder how often opener is bal ? If you play neg free bid 1D-(1S)-??? Do you bid 2H on AxxQTxxxKxxxx on the assumption that hes very often balanced ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted November 12, 2013 Report Share Posted November 12, 2013 I think partner will have an 11-13 NT about 62% of the time. That assumes 2C shows six, 4414 opens 2D, no 10hcp openings and no off-shape 1NT openings, so I suspect it's higher than that in practice unless you open a lot of unbal 10s but few balanced 10s. I would bid 2H, yes. Even if partner is unbal they don't have to have a stiff heart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted November 12, 2013 Report Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't have exact numbers, but it's a lot, way more than 50%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrecisionL Posted November 12, 2013 Report Share Posted November 12, 2013 From an old spreadsheet on classic Precision (NT Opening of 13-15) 1♦ = balanced hand 10-12 of 30 %. Adjusting (roughly) for 14-16 NT, add 1/3 more for 13 hcp hands excluded = 40% for balanced hands that must open 1D. Hmmm .... this seems low. Going back to basic math / probabilities, I recalculate and get 71.5 %. I just talked (calculated) myself out of playing 14-16 NT and letting the opponents overcall 1D with 1 of either Major. :<( 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackshoe Posted November 13, 2013 Report Share Posted November 13, 2013 Seems like a good argument for mini-NT. B-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted November 13, 2013 Report Share Posted November 13, 2013 Seems like a good argument for mini-NT. B-)Not really, because including a strong NT in your 1♦ opening has severe consequences... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrecisionL Posted November 14, 2013 Report Share Posted November 14, 2013 Not really, because including a strong NT in your 1♦ opening has severe consequences... Maybe, maybe not. IMO 16 hcp hands can be upgraded to 1♣ opening or down graded to 15 and opened 1♦ K-S Style. Opening 1NT with a 11-14 hcp range (per K-S) is workable and great for matchpoint pairs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_clown Posted November 14, 2013 Report Share Posted November 14, 2013 If I played neg free bid, I would certainly bid 2♥. Double +2♥ is forcing so I cant see what else we can do 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mycroft Posted November 14, 2013 Report Share Posted November 14, 2013 I have to admit I hate opening 1♣ on boring flat 16s. I'm willing to trade the problems with having to deal with non-standard NT ranges, having to invite on hands that the room is either bidding 1NT-3NT or 1m-1M-1NT-p on, *and* if playing a mini-NT, having to deal with "11-15 if unbalanced, 13-not great 16 if balanced" 1♦, to not have to worry about flat 16 opposite flat 8 (or an ace and a king) trying to avoid the hopeless game. Maybe I'm weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted November 15, 2013 Report Share Posted November 15, 2013 I wrote a short program and generated the following counts: Weak NT: 440752Three suiter with diams: 57250(*)Three suiter short diams: 16812Five-five minors: 22574(*)Six-plus clubs: 110733Six-plus diamonds: 102422(*)5C-4M-short diams: 225535C-4M-3D: 234985C-4M-22 weak NT: 284725C-4D unbal: 241955C-4D-22 weak NT: 150305D-4x unbal: 672765D-4x-22 weak NT: 41934(*)5D-4x-22 14/15 high: 12947 Assuming that the * hands do not open 1D, we have: Weak NT: 440,752 (53.5%)Semi-balanced weak NT: 85,436 (10.4%)Six-plus diamonds: 102,422 (12.4%)Other unbalanced: 194,793 (23.7%) Obviously this depends a bit on which hands open 1D and what you call "balanced" but it seems like the number will be around 64% balanced hand for a fairly standard precision system with these notrump ranges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted November 15, 2013 Report Share Posted November 15, 2013 I wrote a short program and generated the following counts: Weak NT: 440752Three suiter with diams: 57250(*)Three suiter short diams: 16812Five-five minors: 22574(*)Six-plus clubs: 110733Six-plus diamonds: 102422(*)5C-4M-short diams: 225535C-4M-3D: 234985C-4M-22 weak NT: 284725C-4D unbal: 241955C-4D-22 weak NT: 150305D-4x unbal: 672765D-4x-22 weak NT: 41934(*)5D-4x-22 14/15 high: 12947 Why are the 6+club and 6+diamond figures so different? These numbers don't look right to me. My estimate was wrong too, I forgot to remove 5M332 from the 1D opening, which gives me 57-58% - but that was without removing 5D422 14-15, so I'd expect your method to produce a higher figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhm Posted November 15, 2013 Report Share Posted November 15, 2013 If I played neg free bid, I would certainly bid 2♥. Double +2♥ is forcing so I cant see what else we can doI think it is better to double and forget the hearts if partner can not bid them.With ♠Axx it is quite likely you belong in 1NT from opener's side if he can not bid 2♥ I also think opener should bid 2♥ when he would have raised with a 3 card suit over 1♦ - 1♥If you make a negative free bid of 2♥ with a five card suit, the suit should be better. Rainer Herrmann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted November 15, 2013 Report Share Posted November 15, 2013 I also think opener should bid 2♥ when he would have raised with a 3 card suit over 1♦ - 1♥ 1D-(1S)-?? xxKJxAxxxJxxx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted November 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2013 Im very fond of neg free bids so the idead of bidding a 5 card suit at the 2 level was alien to me especially a shitty 5 card suit. But according to Kit Woolsey its pretty standard to assume that partner is rarely short in H (do like he opened 1Nt) . Im not really convinced because 4135,4144,4153,3154,3145,2155,2164 seems like a lot of hands here 2H would be awful. http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/the-highest-level/ Its was BAM format. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhm Posted November 16, 2013 Report Share Posted November 16, 2013 1D-(1S)-?? xxKJxAxxxJxxxIf this is the hand of the 1♦ opener I bid 2♥ in response to a negative double. If this is responders hand I pass. I know this is a minority view. I agree with Jdonn's comment on a different hand" I passed as I usually do on these, but the only thing I really can't stand is double. When partner has 4 hearts you can just never recover." Rainer Herrmann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted November 18, 2013 Report Share Posted November 18, 2013 If this is the hand of the 1♦ opener I bid 2♥ in response to a negative double. If this is responders hand I pass. I know this is a minority view. I agree with Jdonn's comment on a different hand" I passed as I usually do on these, but the only thing I really can't stand is double. When partner has 4 hearts you can just never recover." Rainer Herrmann It's different in precision, you get buried less often when partner has hearts (nothing horrible is going to happen), and you have far more hands that have no bid since you cannot really raise the minor. In standard this hand is no problem obviously since you can just raise partners minor. Passing with all 2353 2335 2344 hand types with 8-10 points is just going to lead to all pass too often when they have a 7 or 8 card fit and almost half the deck (where in standard, all of those hands could at least attempt to raise the minor). That seems like a disaster to me even though your LHO will often save you with a raise, your partner is rarely going to save you if LHO passes since he will rate to have length. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted November 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2013 Can we say that since there is some neg double without 4H, with 5H you should stretch to bid 2H (if NFB) ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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