Opening Lead Problem

[ArtK78]

Yesterday, my team won the Lancaster PA Regional Swiss Teams. It was my first regional win in some time, and it took the sting out of losing in the second round of the Saturday-Sunday KOs the night before.

 

Here is a highly unusual opening lead problem. The stakes are high, as it is the last board of the last round of the Swiss Teams, and your team is leading by 2 VPs. The first six boards have been reasonable, but they were all part score hands so it is likely that the match is close.

 

You hold:

 

Q86xx

9xx

Axx

Tx

 

Your opponents, who are very experienced players, are playing Blue Team Club, which means that the auction that you are facing is far different from the auction at the other table. Both vul, and the opps have the following uncontested auction:

 

RHO.....LHO

 

..1♠......2♥

..2NT....3NT

 

A very simple auction, but a whole lot of inferences. I have played Blue Team Club, but everyone has their own "flavor" of Blue Team, so I asked a lot of questions. First, the 1♠ opening is often on 4 cards. If opener is 2-suited, he will often open a four card suit and bid a longer suit second (Canape). And, since opener did not open 1♣, opener is limited to less than 17 HCP.

 

The 2♥ response is not game forcing, but shows at least 10 HCP. If responder has a strong hand with 2 suits, he will bid the shorter suit first and the longer suit next. So, responder may have a 4 card heart suit (in rare instances, responder could have a 3 card heart suit, but in that case he would have a strong hand with a long second suit).

 

The 2NT rebid by opener denies a 5 card spade suit. Opener MUST rebid spades with 5. He also did not bid a second suit, so opener is balanced (or he is not bidding the longer second suit because he does not have enough to force to game). The opps 1NT opening range is standard strong NT, so opener's typical range on this auction is 12-14. 2NT is not forcing.

 

Responder's 3NT shows enough to bid game opposite opener's nonforcing 2NT rebid, and tends to be balanced. Certainly, responder has no slam ambitions.

 

With all of that information, YOUR LEAD.

 

In the poll, I have only asked which suit you will lead. If you have any comments about which card in a suit you want to lead, feel free to comment. At the table, my partner and I play basic methods against NT contracts - 4th best from length and standard honor leads.

[Fluffy]

The auction at the other table won't be that different, if they play weak NT it will be:

 

1NT-2♣

2♠-3NT

 

At IMPs its a clear diamond lead IMO

[Lord Molyb]

♣10

[ggwhiz]

Just a guess but it's definitely between the minors and if we are going to beat this partner has to have more points than I do.

 

Partner rates to be 2-4 or 2-3 in the majors and if I'm going to hit them a club is more likely to do the job. 5 of those or 4 with decent spots works and they may well have only 3 diamonds.

[fromageGB]

A heart as this is likely to be partner's suit, and he has more values than I. Partner will not assume I have any heart honours. Hopefully he can see them all, but his length and strength will tell him I am not trying to set up my long suit, but am leading his.

 

The 9 because if we are playing lavinthal signals it may deter a club return for the second lead through dummy. As partner knows it is not my suit, I would lead a low x if my Ace was in clubs.

[HighLow21]

Anything but ♠ could be right, and I lead the 10♣ because it's the minor without the Ace. Partner, if he has 5 ♥, is going to have the same problem I have in ♠ -- the LHO holds them.

 

I should know after trick 1 whether the opening lead was right, and if I get in with a spade early I can judge where to switch if it was wrong.

[ArtK78]

OK. I read all of the posts. In my opinion, ONLY a spade could be right, and I led a spade. It was, without a doubt, the winning lead. The whole hand was:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sj92hk74dkt52ck72&w=skt73hqj5dq743ca5&n=sq8654h932da96ct3&e=sahat86dj8cqj9864&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1sp2hp2np3nppp]399|300[/hv]

 

Based on my experience with Blue Team Club, I believe that a strong case can be made for spades being the weak spot in the opponents' hands on this auction. I led a spade, declarer winning in dummy, my partner playing the 9. Declarer went after clubs by playing A and another, my partner winning the K. My partner played the ♠J, and declarer, after much thought, decided to win the K (of course it did not matter). Now declarer tried to make his contract by running the ♥Q, losing to the K. Three spades and the AK of diamonds followed.

 

If you lead either a heart or a club, declarer has gained a tempo on you and can establish 5 clubs, three hearts and at least one spade. After a diamond lead, things are less clear. I am not sure which side will prevail.

 

I can't tell you why East did not bid 3♣ at his second turn to bid. Perhaps he decided that 3NT was the likely best game contract and he didn't want to give away any additional information. In any event, 3♣ was the last guaranteed positive score for EW, and I don't believe they can stop in that spot (nor would they want to, as 3NT is a pretty good contract).

[ArtK78]

Anything but ♠ could be right, and I lead the 10♣ because it's the minor without the Ace. Partner, if he has 5 ♥, is going to have the same problem I have in ♠ -- the LHO holds them.

 

I should know after trick 1 whether the opening lead was right, and if I get in with a spade early I can judge where to switch if it was wrong.

You have your opponent's directions wrong. My RHO opened 1♠ and my LHO bid 2♥.

[ArtK78]

The auction at the other table won't be that different, if they play weak NT it will be:

 

1NT-2♣

2♠-3NT

 

At IMPs its a clear diamond lead IMO

Yes, if the opponents play weak NTs this might be the auction, but, as you can see from LHO's hand, that is far from clear with 4 hearts AND 6 CLUBS.

 

Besides, in the US, strong NT openings, even at the highest level of play, are still far more common than weak NT openings.

[ggwhiz]

Very interesting take with the Blue Club inferences (that I of course got totally wrong).

 

What about the other table?" I can imagine anything from 1♦ - p - 1♥ - p - 1♠ (or 1nt) etc. to a loose 1♠ overcall with your hand. Many possibilities that would lead to a much different lead problem or a 3♣ contract.

[ArtK78]

I never did find out exactly what happened at the other table, other than the result. My teammates were -200 in 3NT, so we won 3 IMPs.

[HighLow21]

Yes, if the opponents play weak NTs this might be the auction, but, as you can see from LHO's hand, that is far from clear with 4 hearts AND 6 CLUBS.

 

Besides, in the US, strong NT openings, even at the highest level of play, are still far more common than weak NT openings.

 

Art my apologies for misunderstanding -- I sometimes have trouble reading descriptions like this because everyone has their own style of notating them, and I read your column headers (wrongly) as "LHO" and "RHO."

 

If the spades are on your RIGHT, then the spade lead is unquestionably the right one in my view, given the info that you have. If partner has at least 2 spades and the J♠ or A♠ we are off to a really good start.