Defensive leading problem 2 of 2

[mr1303]

54

J73

Q6542

753

 

You're on lead to the following auction.

 

1NT 2S 3H P

P 3S 4S P

6H P 7H P

P X all pass.

 

Partner wasn't looking too happy after 6H after he'd balanced but appears happier now. However, he'll soon be miserable if you lead the wrong suit. What'll it be?

[PhilKing]

Low diamond. Partner is not ruffing, so I cash his ace. Declarer has a lot of shape, and if his second suit is clubs, pards putative club ace will not go walkies, but the diamond ace may.

 

Conversely, leading the short suit is better when it is likely pard has doubled for a ruff, since the oppo tend to have a big undisclosed side suit when they bash grand.

[Lord Molyb]

I'll go with a diamond as well.

[wyman]

Another vote for a diamond here

[Fluffy]

good job partner, who wants 16 for -260 when you can get 17 for +200 on a right guess.

[the hog]

54

J73

Q6542

753

 

You're on lead to the following auction.

 

1NT 2S 3H P

P 3S 4S P

6H P 7H P

P X all pass.

 

Partner wasn't looking too happy after 6H after he'd balanced but appears happier now. However, he'll soon be miserable if you lead the wrong suit. What'll it be?

 

Is partner a fool? He had a chance to pass out the hand in 3H and is now defending 7.

Anyway I lead a D - probably the last lead I ever make with this partner.

[mr1303]

This was a problem our opponents faced. They were a pick up partnership. Yes, bidding 3S was a clear error, but that was what happened at the table.

[Cyberyeti]

This was a problem our opponents faced. They were a pick up partnership. Yes, bidding 3S was a clear error, but that was what happened at the table.

 

I'd have bid 3♠ first time on the other hand, bidding it slowly was the bad mistake.

[HighLow21]

It all depends on what partner means for his double, so if you aren't sure, I would recommend interpreting as Lightner, requesting you lead your longest suit (or really, in this case, lead a minor).

 

If it turns out a club is right, then those are the breaks. Partner's double means one of three things, only two of which are reasonable:

1. They aren't making 7♥ and he knows it. If declarer knows what he is doing, this is unlikely.

2. He's afraid if you make the normal lead of a spade they will MAKE the contract, so lead something else.

3. He's upset at how his 3♠ rebid turned out and is doubling out of anger or is gambling.

 

If it's #1, it doesn't matter terribly much what you lead. You're going plus 95% of the time no matter what you lead.

If it's #2, then it does matter what you lead and the diamond is probably the best lead under most circumstances. (1) Partner may be ruffing. (2) Partner may have the ace.

Both are possible with a club lead, but (1) is more likely with a diamond lead because you have 5 of them.

If it's #3, you should leave the table and not play with this partner again.

 

In theory if it is #2 and partner is right (about a spade lead giving them the contract), you only have to guess right about 10%-20% of the time for his double to show a profit in the long run.

 

Still, I'm inclined to distrust this partner's judgment for bidding 3♠.