ggwhiz Posted November 1, 2013 Report Share Posted November 1, 2013 Why do you think we all agree? I think a top heart is much more likely to be better than a spade if partner has a minor. I don't care if a poll of peers is split 50-50, a major suit lead is NOT suggested by the UI and a heart honor lead with a chance to switch to partners minor (or spades) in time is more indicated than a spade if you are looking to take advantage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted November 1, 2013 Report Share Posted November 1, 2013 You are stuck in partner having a solid suit, without looking at the consequences.Why did you say that, when I had just discussed the possibility that partner has a five-card suit headed by two honours? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted November 1, 2013 Report Share Posted November 1, 2013 The possession of the nine is strong reason to think that a top heart would normally be led. Indeed, I recall a Woolsey article where he argued leading a top card from KQ8x(x) was theoretically best. So what?, heart honor is normal, low heart is normal, which one is the offending side leading?, obviously not the succesful one. I am talking in case you are adjusting. 9 tricks makes no sense, its either 10 or 7 EDIT: Actually once 9 tricks are assured, declarer might take a club finese for 11, so perhaps 11 is the answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 Instead you should think along the lines of:- It is most likely clubs, that bans a club lead. If South has clubs, what other leads are than suggested by the UI?No I shouldn't. I should think along the lines specified in Law 16. That is, I should:- Identify the LAs.- For each pair of LAs, decide whether one is suggested over another.- From this, identify the subset of LAs that are not suggested over any other.- Choose one of these. When, as part of this analysis, I compare the LAs of a small spade and a small heart, there are two relevant questions:- How likely is it that partner was considering bidding spades or doubling for spades? I think it is quite likely, though not as likely as that he has clubs. Our length in spades makes it more likely that partner has a minor, but that is counterbalanced by responder's failure to investigate a spade contract.- If partner was considering bidding a minor or doubling for a minor, how does that affect the probabilities of success for these two leads? I think the answer is that it reduces both to a near-zero chance of defeating the contract. Hence the net effect is that a small spade is suggested over a small heart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinidad Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 Why do you think we all agree? I think a top heart is much more likely to be better than a spade if partner has a minor. So what is your conclusion? That a heart lead could have been demonstrably suggested over a spade lead by the UI? Is that a relevant question when North led a spade? (Other than that it says that the spade lead was not demonstrably suggested over a heart by the UI.) The relevant question is whether a spade lead could have been suggested over a heart by the UI. Others have argued that it was, since South could have solid spades, but not solid hearts. I have said that the spade lead was not suggested over a heart lead. I assume that the two of us agree on that and that neither of us would adjust. Rik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 I have said that the spade lead was not suggested over a heart lead. I assume that the two of us agree on that and that neither of us would adjust.No, I do not agree and I would adjust. Partner need not have a minor, as gnasher states. The one thing that he does not have is hearts, and leading those is an LA. Leading anything else is demonstrably suggested by the UI. And I have nothing more to add. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 I am talking in case you are adjusting. 9 tricks makes no sense, its either 10 or 7If a low heart is led, it would be 10 tricks, but I think that the top heart is normal, and declarer will not risk the club finesse at IMPs. I do not mind a weighted score, but, post-Reveley, any part of a spade lead is not allowed if you adjust. I have no idea if Holland allows Reveley rulings! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 No, I do not agree and I would adjust. Partner need not have a minor, as gnasher states. The one thing that he does not have is hearts, and leading those is an LA. Leading anything else is demonstrably suggested by the UI. And I have nothing more to add. Partner can have hearts, it's just less likely than other options. Wouldn't you think with say ♥ AJ10xxx and a minor 4 or 5 card suit to an honour at this vul ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinidad Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 Why do you think we all agree? I think a top heart is much more likely to be better than a spade if partner has a minor. So, in your opinion, the UI suggests a heart lead over a spade in the vast majority of cases. No, I do not agree and I would adjust. Partner need not have a minor, as gnasher states. The one thing that he does not have is hearts, and leading those is an LA. Leading anything else is demonstrably suggested by the UI. And in a tiny minority of cases, the UI suggests a spade lead over a heart. And then you base your decision on what is going on in the tiny minority of the cases? Rik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 Partner can have hearts, it's just less likely than other options.Therefore a non-heart lead is demonstrably suggested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinidad Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 Therefore a non-heart lead is demonstrably suggested.But if South has a long minor (obviously most likely) then -at least according to you- a heart lead is demonstrably suggested over a spade. So you just ignore the most likely possibility? Rik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 But if South has a long minor (obviously most likely) then -at least according to you- a heart lead is demonstrably suggested over a spade. So you just ignore the most likely possibility? RikIt may be obvious to you, but not to others. As gnasher states, the lack of Stayman suggests that partner has spades. Your minor-suit length suggest that partner has a minor. A heart lead is unlikely to be successful if partner has a minor, although a spade lead is less likely still. I would guess that the chance of beating the contract with a heart lead is maybe 5% and with a spade lead maybe 40%, using the UI. Without the UI I would expect the heart lead to be maybe 25%, the spade lead maybe 10% and others very poor indeed, less than 5%. So, all leads other than a heart are infractions, as they are breaches of both 16b and 73C. If North was an experienced player, I would consider a PP for a spade lead. And I don't want to answer any further questions on this, as I stated before, and I will not post again on this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinidad Posted November 2, 2013 Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 I am afraid that I can't follow you.Your:Your minor-suit length suggest that partner has a minor. A heart lead is unlikely to be successful if partner has a minor, although a spade lead is less likely still.is immediately followed by:I would guess that the chance of beating the contract with a heart lead is maybe 5% and with a spade lead maybe 40%, using the UI. saying the exact opposite. 1. A heart lead has a better chance of succes than a spade lead given the UI that suggests partner has a minor.2. A spade lead has a better chance of succes than a heart lead given the UI. If North was an experienced player, I would consider a PP for a spade lead. Then I'm glad you weren't the TD. and I will not post again on this thread. That's fine with me. Have a nice weekend! Rik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted November 4, 2013 Report Share Posted November 4, 2013 So what?, heart honor is normal, low heart is normal, which one is the offending side leading?, obviously not the succesful one. I am talking in case you are adjusting. 9 tricks makes no sense, its either 10 or 7 EDIT: Actually once 9 tricks are assured, declarer might take a club finese for 11, so perhaps 11 is the answer. I am talking in case you are adjusting. 9 tricks makes no sense, its either 10 or 7If a low heart is led, it would be 10 tricks, but I think that the top heart is normal, and declarer will not risk the club finesse at IMPs. I do not mind a weighted score, but, post-Reveley, any part of a spade lead is not allowed if you adjust. I have no idea if Holland allows Reveley rulings! Lol, so I make a post explaining you why you should never award 9, yet you quote the part of my text with the conclusion avoiding the explanation to tell me once again your same wrong conclussion you told me before, arguing with you is very hard, you must be a very tough tournament director. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 22, 2013 Report Share Posted November 22, 2013 unless they are communicating via a medium, which is a breach of 73B2.I was going to ask why bridge laws are dealing with communication to the spirit world but after... I'm not ruling on this without more information. Including, perhaps, how long EW have been telepaths, since they apparently can read North's mind....it all became clear. :blink: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted November 22, 2013 Report Share Posted November 22, 2013 The UI tells us, for example, that partner is more likely to have a five-card suit containing three honours. If that's what he has, it's not in hearts but it might be in spades. Therefore this possibility suggests a spade lead over a heart lead. The UI also tells us that partner is more likely to have a five-card suit containing two honours. If that's what he has, it's more likely to be in spades than in hearts. Again, this possibility suggests a spade lead over a heart lead. Q.E.D. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.