UI or not UI

[Sjoerds]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakq865ht6d8ck975&w=sj9haj82dk2caqj86&n=st432hkq95dt94ct3&e=s7h743daqj7653c42&d=w&v=e&b=16&a=1np3np(...)pp]399|300[/hv]

 

Teams, medium level.

 

South took some time before the pass. North started with a small ♠ and EW went 2 down.

After the play EW called for me.

"The normal start would be ♥K an due to the thinking of South N started with spades"

 

Your ruling?

[Endymion77]

Why would thinking suggest spades, and not a diamond, club or heart lead?

[campboy]

Did South pause for longer than the stop period? If so that suggests he was thinking of doubling to get a particular lead. The one suit we can be sure he wasn't after is a heart; anything else is suggested over hearts IMO.

[lamford]

Did South pause for longer than the stop period? If so that suggests he was thinking of doubling to get a particular lead. The one suit we can be sure he wasn't after is a heart; anything else is suggested over hearts IMO.

More importantly did South pause for longer than he normally does after 1NT-3NT, which often gets no thought at all and a token one-second display of the stop card? Assuming there was a BIT, I would adjust here, to 100% of 3NT=, as declarer will not risk the club finesse. Quite close to a PP for North's spade lead, but probably not for "medium" players, unless they are communicating via a medium, which is a breach of 73B2.

[RMB1]

Why would thinking suggest spades, and not a diamond, club or heart lead?

They may have the agreement that a double would ask for a spade lead

[gordontd]

They may have the agreement that a double would ask for a spade lead

Or South might have been trying to recall if they had such an agreement, which is not uncommon.

[ahydra]

There's actually something to be said for leading a spade. You're the weak hand so should be trying to find partner's suit, and leading a major is suggested by the auction.

 

Did anyone ask North why he led a spade?

 

ahydra

[aguahombre]

They may have the agreement that a double would ask for a spade lead

This gets tricky, IMO, but all paths seem to lead to an adjustment. If their agreement is admittedly that a double would ask for a Spade lead, then we might conclude South's thinking was that he needed a better suit than AKQXXX, or a sure outside quick trick in order to double; and North worked it out because of his length. You cannot, IMO, rule that if South wanted a Spade lead, he would have Doubled after the long thought --so North was trying to make the lead least suggested by the BIT-- we now enter L23.

 

If their agreement is Double to ask for a Club lead, perhaps the BIT might have been to remember and lament it didn't call for a Spade lead. The only thing clear is that the BIT couldn't demonstrably suggest the logical alternative heart lead, so we adjust if there is an adverse result.

[Trinidad]

Well, I personally think that the spade lead is the normal lead.

 

If I would be forced to lead a heart, I would at least lead a small heart and certainly not the king. And there you have another reason for leading a spade: If I would play 1st-3rd-5th leads (fairly popular in the Netherlands), I don't want to lead that ♥9. So if I would lead a heart, it would be the 5 and it will give partner the wrong picture of my heart suit.

 

Obviously, the question is not what the normal lead is, but whether a heart lead is an LA. And then we still need to decide whether the spade lead could have demonstrably been suggested by the UI.

 

My opinion on these questions:

- A heart lead is an LA.

- Unless there is an agreement that a double asks for a spade lead (which I find unlikely) I think that the BIT didn't suggest a particular lead.

 

All in all, I wouldn't do anything.

 

Rik

[billw55]

The one suit we can be sure he wasn't after is a heart; anything else is suggested over hearts IMO.

This nails it. No matter what their agreement about a double is, it would show that something unusual is going on. A heart lead is an obvious LA, to say the least. Clear adjustment if the hesitation is confirmed.

[ggwhiz]

I'm not so sure about the adjustment as it has a lot to do with the level of players.

 

After a lead directing double which this is equivalent to a club would be first choice and a diamond second for many. If either of those were led and worked I would be much more concerned.

 

We have players locally that blindly lead from 3 small instead of longest and strongest with a hole in it all the time (and can prove it) so I definitely think a PP is too harsh.

[ahydra]

This nails it. No matter what their agreement about a double is, it would show that something unusual is going on. A heart lead is an obvious LA, to say the least. Clear adjustment if the hesitation is confirmed.

 

You can argue "hesitation suggests unusual lead, therefore the usual lead is the LA that must be selected"; or you can argue "hesitation suggests an unusual lead, but no particular suit, therefore nothing is demonstrably suggested".

 

Indeed, the "unusual lead" suggested may even be a non-systemic card in hearts. I'm not convinced it's clear enough but would still like to have asked North why he/she led a spade.

 

ahydra

[campboy]

It's not that hearts is the normal lead (I prefer a spade lead, personally). It's that if, as seems likely, South was thinking about doubling because double means (or they haven't discussed it but he thought partner might take it as) "try to find my suit", then the one suit that North can eliminate is hearts. South can't have enough top cards in hearts to be desperate for a heart lead.

[mycroft]

Well I hope that I don't get this ruling after I pause for 10 seconds (which, I will admit, I would be using all of trying to work out if double = lead spades if I don't have that agreement). Because one thing I don't do is look at the stop card, and pass after 1 second.

 

Even after 1NT-7NT.

 

This one drives me nuts, because everybody does in fact do the "token look and one-second display of the stop card" (if at all), and there are times - rare, but this is the second time I've seen this one - where I do have to think over 1NT-3NT. So I always do, because I always do - and the reason I always do is that sometimes I have to. Odd, that.

[wanoff]

If the hesitation was agreed I'd adjust but I'm not a trained director.

Q♥ would be the normal lead but if not, you're on a 3 to 1 shot except for dummy probably having less than 4 spades.

[Trinidad]

Did South pause for longer than the stop period? If so that suggests he was thinking of doubling to get a particular lead. The one suit we can be sure he wasn't after is a heart; anything else is suggested over hearts IMO.

I don't think it works like that. I know that we are not talking about LA's here, but if you have one line of play that has a 50% chance of success and another that has a 75% chance for success, is the 50% line than an LA? No, it isn't to anybody who can do the math.

 

If South was thinking about doubling, the double normally asks North to find South's suit. That means that the suggested lead would be a club.

 

Suppose that South would have doubled to ask North to find his suit. Is there anybody here who would have tried a spade with the North hand? Or would everybody have led a club?

 

I think that everybody (100%) would have led a club, because the club lead has objectively the best chance to find partner's long suit. There are no guarantees, but it is crystal clear that it is the percentage play. Any other lead than a club would be really, really dumb. If we would be talking about LA's here: there are no LA's, not even remotely.

 

So, the BIT suggests a club lead and a club lead only. The BIT cannot suggest a lead that nobody would make if South actually would have doubled, rather than just thought about it. Hence, a spade lead is not suggested by the BIT, simply because the BIT says that it would be a really, really dumb lead.

 

Rik

[aguahombre]

I think we all know that a reasonable pause after the opponents' jump bid is expected, Mycroft---even on an auction such as this. The OP describes the pause as "took some time", which I interpret as a BIT beyond the expected. Otherwise, it would seem there was no point in the thread.

[mycroft]

expected, yes, but honoured (in this auction, specifically) more in the mind than in the breach.

 

All I was saying is (mostly to lamford's comment, but it always comes up) that if the auction had gone as it did, and they claimed the spade lead was based on my hesitation, and I disputed it, that just because "nobody does it" doesn't mean that I don't, and that I shouldn't be allowed to reap the benefits of it when a) I needed the time and b) I always take the time.

 

When b) but not a), it's amusing to hear the arguments to the TD. When b) and a) it's less so.

 

In the real case, if there was an agreed break in tempo, then we do need to discuss what it's suggesting, true. I can't imagine setting this on a heart lead (but watch, partner has ATxxx next time). But the OP said "South took some time before the pass. [ ] East/West called me." There is not yet an *agreed* break in tempo, nor may there even *be* a break in tempo.

[blackshoe]

I'm not ruling on this without more information. Including, perhaps, how long EW have been telepaths, since they apparently can read North's mind.

[campboy]

All I was saying is (mostly to lamford's comment, but it always comes up) that if the auction had gone as it did, and they claimed the spade lead was based on my hesitation, and I disputed it, that just because "nobody does it" doesn't mean that I don't, and that I shouldn't be allowed to reap the benefits of it when a) I needed the time and b) I always take the time.

Absolutely. I always pause here too. Of course, I pause whenever required by the stop card, but if I was going to start ignoring the stop procedure in some auctions, this wouldn't be one of them.

[Sjoerds]

I'm not ruling on this without more information. Including, perhaps, how long EW have been telepaths, since they apparently can read North's mind.

:rolleyes:

 

The pause before pass was no discussion.

 

Did anyone ask North why he led a spade?

 

Yep: North told me "I know south must have about 10 HP. If I start with ♥K I will get only one trick unless partner has something nice in ♥. I rather try to reach partner in an other suit"

[campboy]

I don't think it works like that. I know that we are not talking about LA's here, but if you have one line of play that has a 50% chance of success and another that has a 75% chance for success, is the 50% line than an LA? No, it isn't to anybody who can do the math.

 

If South was thinking about doubling, the double normally asks North to find South's suit. That means that the suggested lead would be a club.

 

Suppose that South would have doubled to ask North to find his suit. Is there anybody here who would have tried a spade with the North hand? Or would everybody have led a club?

 

I think that everybody (100%) would have led a club, because the club lead has objectively the best chance to find partner's long suit. There are no guarantees, but it is crystal clear that it is the percentage play. Any other lead than a club would be really, really dumb. If we would be talking about LA's here: there are no LA's, not even remotely.

 

So, the BIT suggests a club lead and a club lead only. The BIT cannot suggest a lead that nobody would make if South actually would have doubled, rather than just thought about it. Hence, a spade lead is not suggested by the BIT, simply because the BIT says that it would be a really, really dumb lead.

I do not buy this at all. The laws talk about one alternative being suggested over another. So what we have to consider is purely whether spades is suggested over hearts; the fact that clubs is suggested over both is irrelevant. Without the BIT both spades and hearts are plausible (I prefer spades but I don't know if I'm right to do so). With the BIT a heart lead is definitely wrong, but a spade lead might be right (as here).

[Fluffy]

The only thing I am sure is that 9 tricks are not being taken, low heart is a normal lead with that holding and there is no reason to think other card would be used.

[lamford]

The only thing I am sure is that 9 tricks are not being taken, low heart is a normal lead with that holding and there is no reason to think other card would be used.

The possession of the nine is strong reason to think that a top heart would normally be led. Indeed, I recall a Woolsey article where he argued leading a top card from KQ8x(x) was theoretically best. Here, however, it is the selection of a non-heart which might be a breach of 16b (and 73C) after the BIT. And in response to blackshoe, EW are not reading North's mind in claiming this. They are just following: "When a player has substantial reason to believe that an opponent who had a logical alternative has chosen an action that could have been suggested by such information, he should summon the Director when play ends." I am sure that the translation from the Dutch might well be imperfect, and they would have indicated such substantial reason in some form or other. It matters not and no telepathy is needed.

[blackshoe]

And people say I have no sense of humor. Ha!