Where´s the King?

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&s=sj8642ha82dq984c5&n=sakhq9dkjt62ckq73&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=2s(spades%20and%20a%20minor)p2n(relay)p3d(minimum)p5dppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Leftie leads ♣J, so the question is simple: Where is ♥K?

 

 

In case you miss the point, if rightie has ♥K you can make this one with no problem unless very bad breaks, but if it is leftie who has ♥K you can make this ducking the first trick

 

[Hanoi5]

The ♣A is to our right, but not much than that can be known. Maybe the other Ace is on the left. But then we're kinda stuck.

 

I'd say the King is to the left 'cause the lead was a club not a heart, but apart from that I don't see any clue.

[manudude03]

I duck because I think it's more likely that LHO would fail to find the heart switch with Jxxx or something than it is that RHO would do the same.

[gnasher]

I don't think I can draw any useful inferences from the bidding. xx KJ10x Axx Axxx isn't enough for RHO to make a takeout double of 2NT at this vulnerability. x KJ10x Axx Axxxx would be enough, but if he has that hand I'm going down regardless of what I do.

 

I can think of two conflicting factors:

- I know of two of LHO's cards, but only one of RHO's. Hence RHO is a priori 12:11 to have ♥K.

- LHO led a club not a heart. With similar club and heart holdings he might have led a club. That suggests LHO is more likely to have the ♥K.

 

I'm not convinced by the second of these. With something like xx Kxxx Axx J10xx he might have led a heart anyway, so the club lead might suggest a heart holding like Jxxx. Hence I play RHO for ♥K, and I cover ♣J.

[Fluffy]

In reality I had a system misshap and played 4♠. Which was almost the same, just that it required diamonds 2-2, and the player with ♦A to have ♥K as well combined with spades coming for one loser and no trump control problem.

 

All of this was avialable on the hand, but I still went down for missguessing at trick 1.

 

I supose I could make this one a good problem if you have to play 4♠ and RHO is a passed hand.