Ten to twenty - The Controversial Lead from Bali

[Hanoi5]

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So, what do you lead and why?

 

And, what's that rule about 20" that can be taken at any moment when using scrrens, a so-called 'New-Zealand' Rule?

[Lord Molyb]

assuming the auction is a standard jacoby sequence, I lead a spade

[nige1]

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So, what do you lead and why?

 

And, what's that rule about 20" that can be taken at any moment when using screens, a so-called 'New-Zealand' Rule?

[/hv]

IMO ♦ = 10, ♣ = 8, ♠ = 6. Assuming that the 3♠ is natural, if partner wanted a ♠ lead, then he could Lightner-double -- although, sometimes, he'll be reluctant to do so, in case opponents correct to ♠ or notrump.

[Mbodell]

2nt is a Jacoby style raise.

 

3♠ is a natural response showing a spade suit (and hence a really bad idea for a spade lead).

 

4nt is key card and 5♠ is 2 w/ Q.

 

It is clear to me to lead a minor. It is not clear which one to lead. It is not clear which one to lead if partner doubles. Maybe clubs is slightly better than diamonds since it may force declarer to an early guess and/or if W was long in diamonds he might have been solid and investigated 7nt, and we know that even if he's long in clubs he's missing the QT. Plus if partner has either the K or the J of clubs we'll have not blown anything in the suit.

[paulg]

The WBF Screen Regulations (PDF) say (my emphasis)

 

1.4 Modification of Rectifications when screens are in use:

 

f) If a player on the side of the screen receiving the tray considers there has been a break in tempo and consequently there may be unauthorised information he should, under Law 16B2, call the Director. He may do so at any time before the opening lead is made and the screen opened.

g) Failure to do as (f) provides may persuade the Director it was the partner who drew attention to the break in tempo. If so he may well rule there was no perceived delay and thus no unauthorised information. A delay in passing the tray of up to 20 seconds is not regarded as significant.

[MickyB]

Let's say we knew that partner had thought for a while over 7H. What lead(s) would the hesitation suggest would be more likely to be successful?

[sfi]

Aside from the possibility that East is thinking about bidding 7NT, they could easily take up more than 20 seconds simply asking about their agreements. The opponents have just bid to a grand after all, so it's worth taking time to get a good picture of the hand.

 

My feeling is a diamond is marginally suggested by a hesitation. If partner is void in a minor, the opponents have an 8 card fit in it. Missing the queen they might have done a bit more investigation, but that's only a slim clue if valid at all.

[gnasher]

I agree that a spade lead is out of the question.

 

I'd lead a club because it may put declarer to a guess before he has found out how the other suits break. I agree with sfi that a pause by partner suggests a diamond over a club.

 

As I understand it, Helgemo and Helness didn't ask for a ruling at the time, but were persuaded to ask for one later by their coach. I prefer their first decision.

[Fluffy]

What guess are guys thinking about? we don't have a King, we have a queen, with a 10. the only finesse you break by leading one now is AK9 in dummy Jack in hand, any other finesse structure will still be available later on.

 

Even if dummy hits with ♣AKJx opposite singleton, and the jack is needed, declarer will either have no alternative to playing the jack, or have another alternative that is winning as well.

 

But against a single combo we might or not break, there are so many positions where we are blowing a club trick.

[gnasher]

I was thinking of something like Axxx AQJxxx xx x opposite xx Kxxx AKQxx AKJ, but I admit that there are a couple of flaws in this construction.

[Lord Molyb]

2nt is a Jacoby style raise.

 

3♠ is a natural response showing a spade suit (and hence a really bad idea for a spade lead).

 

4nt is key card and 5♠ is 2 w/ Q.

 

It is clear to me to lead a minor. It is not clear which one to lead. It is not clear which one to lead if partner doubles. Maybe clubs is slightly better than diamonds since it may force declarer to an early guess and/or if W was long in diamonds he might have been solid and investigated 7nt, and we know that even if he's long in clubs he's missing the QT. Plus if partner has either the K or the J of clubs we'll have not blown anything in the suit.

oh, in that case I lead a diamond.

[lamford]

My feeling is a diamond is marginally suggested by a hesitation. If partner is void in a minor, the opponents have an 8 card fit in it. Missing the queen they might have done a bit more investigation, but that's only a slim clue if valid at all.

I agree, although I know the hand, and it seems surprising that HH were asking for a ruling when the margin was never less than about 70 on the last day. Partner might also have JT9x of hearts and did not double because 7NT was a possibility. I think it was flat in the BB final, presumably after a lightner double and correction to 7NT in the other room, a contract which need JTxx of spades with the long clubs, so not great. What to lead on this auction after a lightner double is a similar problem, and I would not have corrected to 7NT on the other hands. The chance of the wrong minor being led seems greater than 7NT making. And the chance of a psychic Lightner double at this level must be quite high. Correct methods here are to play that taking the full 20 seconds asks for a club and passing immediately acts for a diamond, although the other way round is also playable.

[gnasher]

Correct methods here are to play that taking the full 20 seconds asks for a club and passing immediately acts for a diamond, although the other way round is also playable.

But, as with most signalling methods, declarer can restore the balance by making the same signal for the suit that he wants.

[sfi]

I agree, although I know the hand.

 

I don't know the hand. What would have worked (or better yet, which board was it)?

[Hanoi5]

Correct methods here are to play that taking the full 20 seconds asks for a club and passing immediately acts for a diamond, although the other way round is also playable.

 

Can someone explain this sentence to me as if I were a 6-year-old boy?

[ArtK78]

Correct methods here are to play that taking the full 20 seconds asks for a club and passing immediately acts for a diamond, although the other way round is also playable.

Playing with screens, partner's screenmate may mess up your methods by pausing for about 20 seconds before his final pass if partner makes his call in less than 5 seconds. That would cut down the effectiveness of your method by 50%.

[gnasher]

Can someone explain this sentence to me as if I were a 6-year-old boy?

No, because talking to a 6-year old boy we wouldn't make jokes about prearranged cheating.

[BillHiggin]

I have a concern about the explanation of the 3♠ bid (but regardless of the answer, my opinion of the lead is close to worthless). We are told that the bid showed a side spade suit, but nothing about whether or not it denied a minor suit shortness. It is possible that there was more disclosure at the table or that the HH methods were well known in this respect. In fact the hand was 4522, but that may or may not be implied by partnership agreement.

[Fluffy]

Here is what Bocchi explained to me:

 

Dummy has a long suit for his bidding most often, and finding a ruff is our best hope given the dreaded xxx in spades.

 

This suit is most likely clubs given that opponents are not in 7NT.