Plan the Play

[lamford]

[hv=pc=n&s=st65hak52dk9542c6&n=sq4hqjt8daj3cat84&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1dp1hd2hp4hppp]266|200[/hv]

East leads the king of clubs and West plays the 9 (reverse count). Over to you.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=st65hak52dk9542c6&n=sq4hqjt8daj3cat84&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1dp1hd2hp4hppp]266|200|

East leads the king of clubs and West plays the 9 (reverse count). Over to you.[/hv]

Thanks again lamford. Another unsophisticated effort: ♣A, ♥JQK, ♦AJ hoping to make 1 X ♣, 4 X ♦, 1 X ruff and 4 other ♥

[dake50]

Shut my brain off and let partner bring this home.

I think try to ruff C4 low, ruff C108 with HAK and win DKA.

[lamford]

Thanks again lamford. Another unsophisticated effort: ♣A, ♥JQK, ♦AJ hoping to make 1 X ♣, 4 X ♦, 1 X ruff and 4 other ♥

You will make easily enough as trumps are 3-2 and the queen of diamonds is singleton. Bakhshi ran the jack of diamonds at trick two, and then played a diamond to the ace which was ruffed so he was one down. I must confess I did not understand the line. Dake will make (I sense a poem there) as well, as the queen of diamonds is singleton, but I don't think his line is best.

[rhm]

You will make easily enough as trumps are 3-2 and the queen of diamonds is singleton. Bakhshi ran the jack of diamonds at trick two, and then played a diamond to the ace which was ruffed so he was one down. I must confess I did not understand the line. Dake will make (I sense a poem there) as well, as the queen of diamonds is singleton, but I don't think his line is best.

So what line is best?

 

Rainer Herrmann

[lamford]

So what line is best?

Rainer Herrmann

I am unsure. I would play two rounds of trumps, then a diamond to the king and a diamond to the jack. If East is 4-2-5-2, I will make whether or not he has Qx of diamonds.

[gnasher]

It appears that West has a spade honour and four spades. With ♠Kxxx and ♦Q he would have bid 2♠, so I agree with Bakhshi that we should play for East to have ♦Q. However, I think we should draw two trumps with A and Q before deciding how to play the diamonds.

 

If trumps break, I won't play East for four diamonds: he might not have doubled with AJxx xx Qxxx KQJ, and West would probably have bid with Kxxx xxx x 9xxxx. Hence I draw a third trump and cash ♦A, then guess how to play the diamonds for an overtrick.

 

If East has a singleton trump I backwards-finesse in diamonds, playing East for 4135.

 

If West has a singleton trump I think I'm going down.

[lamford]

It appears that West has a spade honour and four spades. With ♠Kxxx and ♦Q he would have bid 2♠, so I agree with Bakhshi that we should play for East to have ♦Q. However, I think we should draw two trumps with A and Q before deciding how to play the diamonds.

 

If trumps break, I won't play East for four diamonds: he might not have doubled with AJxx xx Qxxx KQJ, and West would probably have bid with Kxxx xxx x 9xxxx. Hence I draw a third trump and cash ♦A, then guess how to play the diamonds for an overtrick.

 

If East has a singleton trump I backwards-finesse in diamonds, playing East for 4135.

 

If West has a singleton trump I think I'm going down.

You will fail when West has ♦QTxx and East has the AK of spades. He might well lead the king of clubs with that holding. I agree with drawing two rounds of trumps, but if you draw a third round then you cannot play a diamond to the king and one to the jack.

[gnasher]

You will fail when West has ♦QTxx and East has the AK of spades. He might well lead the king of clubs with that holding.

I think the only relevant hand is AKxx xxx x KQJxx. I think a spade would be normal from that, but perhaps others will disagree.

 

Do you agree that if we took away ♣J or added ♠J, the spade lead would be automatic? If so, we're comparing these probabilities:

(1) 4315 with both top spades, neither black jack, and no ♦Q, and he led a club.

(2) 4315 with one or two top spades, any combination of black jacks, and ♦Q (plus the chance that he led a club from AKxx xxx Q KQJxx).

 

Isn't (2) more likely than (1)?

 

I agree with drawing two rounds of trumps, but if you draw a third round then you cannot play a diamond to the king and one to the jack.

Yes, but I don't want to play a diamond to the king and one to the jack, so I'm unconcerned by my inability to do so.

 

Edit: Actually, Paul, I think your line is wrong even if you think West can have ♦Q. Aren't you going down when East has a small singleton diamond? He ruffs the second diamond and forces dummy, and now you can't get your diamonds doing.

[lamford]

I think the only relevant hand is AKxx xxx x KQJxx. I think a spade would be normal from that, but perhaps others will disagree.

 

Do you agree that if we took away ♣J or added ♠J, the spade lead would be automatic? If so, we're comparing these probabilities:

(1) 4315 with both top spades, neither black jack, and no ♦Q, and he led a club.

(2) 4315 with one or two top spades, any combination of black jacks, and ♦Q (plus the chance that he led a club from AKxx xxx Q KQJxx).

 

Isn't (2) more likely than (1)?

 

 

Yes, but I don't want to play a diamond to the king and one to the jack, so I'm unconcerned by my inability to do so.

 

Edit: Actually, Paul, I think your line is wrong even if you think West can have ♦Q. Aren't you going down when East has a small singleton diamond? He ruffs the second diamond and forces dummy, and now you can't get your diamonds doing.

One issue is that we already know he has the KQ of clubs from the lead, so we are really comparing just the jack of clubs with AK of spades. I agree that a spade lead is normal without the jack of clubs. With it, I would lead a top club.

 

Playing two rounds of trumps from North and any diamond will fail when East has a small singleton diamond, assuming East is 4-3-1-5. The winning line then is to play three trumps ending in South and then finesse the jack of diamonds. Finessing the jack of diamonds after drawing three rounds of trumps fails when East has a singleton queen. I am not sure one can cater for all lines, and it seems 4-2-2-5 is the most likely shape when drawing two rounds of trumps is better than drawing three; if you draw three and blow to Qx in diamonds you are down. My brain hurts now ... but I do think Bakhshi's line was poor.

[lamford]

And no, on reflection, I don't go down when East has a small singleton diamond if I win the second round of trumps in South and then finesse the jack of diamonds, even if I continue with the ace of diamonds which gets ruffed. I can still set up and enjoy the diamonds. So this seems the best line, only losing to the actual layout!

[gnasher]

And no, on reflection, I don't go down when East has a small singleton diamond if I win the second round of trumps in South and then finesse the jack of diamonds, even if I continue with the ace of diamonds which gets ruffed. I can still set up and enjoy the diamonds. So this seems the best line, only losing to the actual layout!

Yes, that's better than your first line, in that it does actually cater for the layout that you want it to cater for.

 

I'm not sure what your point is about 4225. Don't all reasonable lines, and some unreasonable lines, work against that?

[lamford]

Yes, that's better than your first line, in that it does actually cater for the layout that you want it to cater for.

 

I'm not sure what your point is about 4225. Don't all reasonable lines, and some unreasonable lines, work against that?

No, I don't think so. If you cash three trumps and play a diamond to the king and finesse the jack of diamonds and lose to Qx you are down, but if you cash only two trumps and play a diamond to the king and finesse the jack of diamonds and lose to Qx you still make. Cashing three trumps ending in South and taking a first round diamond finesse still works. However, cashing the king of diamonds first fails when there is a singleton diamond with East even if you then get them right, as you pointed out, as East forces and you are off as you cannot enjoy the diamonds. So, I think it is right to go down in a slower way than Bakhshi (slower in more tricks rather than in Robson minutes).

[gnasher]

No, I don't think so. If you cash three trumps and play a diamond to the king and finesse the jack of diamonds and lose to Qx you are down

I said "some unreasonable lines", not "all unreasonable lines".

[rhm]

No, I don't think so. If you cash three trumps and play a diamond to the king and finesse the jack of diamonds and lose to Qx you are down, but if you cash only two trumps and play a diamond to the king and finesse the jack of diamonds and lose to Qx you still make. Cashing three trumps ending in South and taking a first round diamond finesse still works. However, cashing the king of diamonds first fails when there is a singleton diamond with East even if you then get them right, as you pointed out, as East forces and you are off as you cannot enjoy the diamonds. So, I think it is right to go down in a slower way than Bakhshi (slower in more tricks rather than in Robson minutes).

 

Sorry but I cannot follow. Maybe I have a blind spot. I think your line looses whenever East has the queen of diamonds not singleton.

 

For example

 

[hv=pc=n&s=st65hak52dk9542c6&w=sk987h93dt87c7532&n=sq4hqjt8daj3cat84&e=saj32h764dq6ckqj9&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1dp1hd2hp4hppp]399|300[/hv]

On your suggested line East simply returns a club. Diamonds are blocked. How are you going to make your contract?

It does not matter who was the third heart or the third diamond. You seem to be always down when East has the queen unless the third diamond is with the third heart. .

East holding the singleton diamond queen would be my smallest concern.

 

A much better line is not to cash the diamond king first before finessing the diamond jack, only 2 trumps with the queen and king.

This looses to the singleton diamond queen with East, but wins when West has the queen. When the jack wins you can draw trumps and win unless both red suits do not break.

If East has the queen you need diamonds 3-2 most of the time, but hearts need not break. You can always arrange one heart ruff, making 9 red suit tricks and the ace of clubs.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[lamford]

Sorry but I cannot follow. Maybe I have a blind spot. I think your line looses whenever East has the queen of diamonds not singleton.

 

For example

 

[hv=pc=n&s=st65hak52dk9542c6&w=sk987h93dt87c7532&n=sq4hqjt8daj3cat84&e=saj32h764dq6ckqj9&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1dp1hd2hp4hppp]399|300[/hv]

On your suggested line East simply returns a club. Diamonds are blocked. How are you going to make your contract?

It does not matter who was the third heart or the third diamond. You seem to be always down when East has the queen unless the third diamond is with the third heart. .

East holding the singleton diamond queen would be my smallest concern.

 

A much better line is not to cash the diamond king first before finessing the diamond jack, only 2 trumps with the queen and king.

This looses to the singleton diamond queen with East, but wins when West has the queen. When the jack wins you can draw trumps and win unless both red suits do not break.

If East has the queen you need diamonds 3-2 most of the time, but hearts need not break. You can always arrange one heart ruff, making 9 red suit tricks and the ace of clubs.

 

Rainer Herrmann

You are right about not cashing the king of diamonds first. I still think the right line, as I stated, is to play two hearts ending in dummy and then finesse the jack of diamonds. This wins whenever East is 4-2-2-5 or if he is 4-3-1-5 with any diamond other than the queen. It would lose on the actual layout which was East 4-3-1-5 with a singleton Q of diamonds and the spade honours split.

 

In the other room, Robson bid 2S on Kxxx xx Txxx xxx over 2H by South, causing East to 'sac' in 4Sx for -500, so that suggests the ♠AK are more likely to be with East, as West might have bid with any four spades headed by an honour.

 

Another possible line is to play one heart to South and then finesse the jack of diamonds. That will again fail as East will get a diamond ruff.

[PhilKing]

I may be being a bit thick (I've just finished a long plane trip), but this is my line:

 

Trick 1: ♣A

2: ruff a ♣

3: ♦ to the jack

 

If that holds, ruff another club, draw trumps and claim. You have four hearts, three diamonds and three clubs, and you make 12 tricks if diamonds break. This must cover some extra bases, such as East holding a 4414.

 

If it loses, you have to hope that diamonds are not 4-1, but you have extra transportation by playing zero rounds of trumps. Incidentally, I don't accept that West would bid 2♠ with Kxxx and the diamond queen. You go off here, but stiff queen is the only fly in the ointment barring a 5-0 trump break. Strange how seeing all 52 cards can lead one's analysis astray.

[gnasher]

I may be being a bit thick (I've just finished a long plane trip), but this is my line:

 

Trick 1: ♣A

2: ruff a ♣

3: ♦ to the jack

 

If that holds, ruff another club, draw trumps and claim. You have four hearts, three diamonds and three clubs, and you make 12 tricks if diamonds break. This must cover some extra bases, such as East holding a 4414.

 

If it loses, you have to hope that diamonds are not 4-1, but you have extra transportation by playing zero rounds of trumps.

 

If the diamond finesse loses, you need both red suits to break. If diamonds are 4-1, they arrange a diamond ruff; if hearts are 4-1, they force you with a spade.

 

We're told that West showed an odd number of clubs, so 4414 with East isn't likely.

 

Strange how seeing all 52 cards can lead one's analysis astray.

Does that mean the same as "Anyone whose judgement differs from mine must lack objectivity"?

[PhilKing]

If the diamond finesse loses, you need both red suits to break. If diamonds are 4-1, they arrange a diamond ruff; if hearts are 4-1, they force you with a spade.

 

Yes - I misstated. Ignoring overtricks, I was only gaining 4441 when the finesse holds.

 

We're told that West showed an odd number of clubs, so 4414 with East isn't likely.

 

Well I just don't agree. It looks like they are signalling for a spade regardless of what we are told.

 

Does that mean the same as "Anyone whose judgement differs from mine must lack objectivity"?

 

<_<

 

.

[lamford]

Well I just don't agree. It looks like they are signalling for a spade regardless of what we are told.

I presume that on the "serious error" thread, where you voted for doubling being a serious error, you don't believe it is point-a-board, despite being told that. Alternatives are that the long plane ride affected your judgement, or you think that not doubling is the right game-theory action.

 

And I am not sure why a spade signal here makes it more likely that both red suits are 3-2.

[nige1]

I may be being a bit thick (I've just finished a long plane trip), but this is my line:

Trick 1: ♣A

2: ruff a ♣

3: ♦ to the jack

 

If that holds, ruff another club, draw trumps and claim. You have four hearts, three diamonds and three clubs, and you make 12 tricks if diamonds break. This must cover some extra bases, such as East holding a 4414.

 

If it loses, you have to hope that diamonds are not 4-1, but you have extra transportation by playing zero rounds of trumps. Incidentally, I don't accept that West would bid 2♠ with Kxxx and the diamond queen. You go off here, but stiff queen is the only fly in the ointment barring a 5-0 trump break. Strange how seeing all 52 cards can lead one's analysis astray.

I prefer PhilKing's line to mine (in theory if not in practice). I didn't watch any of the boards on BBO, so far presented in this forum. Also, I pretend I'm at the table so think for only a minute or two before deciding a line; but no bell rang to tell the players at the table that the play is interesting. Whereas, we know that the board must be interesting to merit presentation here. Some of my pathetic efforts would work. Nevertheless, my lines are sub-optimum on every problem. And I haven't been playing high-pressure bridge for a week. My admiration for world-championship contenders increases even further :)

[PhilKing]

I presume that on the "serious error" thread, where you voted for doubling being a serious error, you don't believe it is point-a-board, despite being told that. Alternatives are that the long plane ride affected your judgement, or you think that not doubling is the right game-theory action.

 

And I am not sure why a spade signal here makes it more likely that both red suits are 3-2.

 

No - second theory was correct. Did not notice it was BAM. I do think that holding an AK makes it more likely that they are bidding on a long minor, however (Baye's).

 

Deleted nonsense below. I now have a bug from plane trip and will comment only on bidding for a day or so. :(

[rhm]

Let's compare the two lines and let us ignore 5-0 breaks in the red suits.

 

The standard line is 2 rounds of trumps, diamond finesse, which I compare to Phil's line.

 

If the diamond finesse wins Phil line wins 100%

If the diamond finesse wins, only a 4-1 break in both red suits will kill the standard line most of the time (not always), that is still better than a 92% chance.

 

An advantage of less than 8% for Phil's line

 

If the diamond finesse looses Phil line needs both red suits to be 3-2, that is a 46% chance.

If the diamond finesse looses the standard line needs diamonds to be 3-2, that is a 68% chance.

 

An advantage of 22% for the standard line.

 

I do not know where the diamond queen is nor given the bidding what the chances are for the diamond finesse to win and my rough probabilities are approximate and among others ignore the bidding to some extent:

 

But it does not feel to me that Phil's line is for once an improvement at IMPs over the standard line.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[PhilKing]

I'm fading here, but when the diamond is offside and trumps are 4-1, how is the standard line winning over mine?

 

Note: this is a question rather than a comment. B-)

[rhm]

I'm fading here, but when the diamond is offside and trumps are 4-1, how is the standard line winning over mine?

 

Note: this is a question rather than a comment. B-)

You have a point I overlooked: If the defense forces in spades the standard line has a problem when hearts are 4-1.

You need to guess the diamonds and the location of the ♦T, but at least you can get home.

When the diamond finesse fails and diamonds are 3-2 only West is likely to have four hearts.

 

Cash North remaining heart after the spade force.

If you believe West has 3 diamonds cash both diamonds and draw trumps.

If you believe West has ♦Tx go to the king of diamond and discard the ♦A on the ace of hearts.

If you believe West started with ♦xx, finesse the ♦9 and discard the ♦A on the ace of hearts.

 

If you ruffed a club early this line is not available.

But admittedly my previous calculation is wrong, since I will not get the above guesses right all the time when the defense does switch to spades.

 

RainerHerrmann