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Will you bid 4S on GP?


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At what vulnerabilities would you bid 4 on this auction? I posted it as all Red, but I want to know about all 4. [hv=pc=n&n=s9876532h7dq7c862&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1hp2hp3s(16+%20HCP%2C%200-1%20%21S)p4h]133|200[/hv]

 

Same question, but what about this auction?

[hv=pc=n&n=s9876532h7dq7c862&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1hp2hp4hpp]133|200[/hv]

 

For those who care, this was with GIB Basic bots, and here is the hand.

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none

 

of course it will sometimes work but not often enough for me.

 

it has three ways to lose

 

we go 800 ... ouch

 

we could beat them in 4 especially if I keep my mouth shut (I mean RHO may have only a game invite on the 1st hand according to the OP, and dummy may have a misfitting hand with spade values, so while game will usually make their way, it isn't a slam dunk)

 

we could be defending 5 with partner now making a terrible lead from say Kx or Kxx in spades, with a safer and more common lead had we not bid.

 

 

So 3 ways to lose, one way to win, and no clear reason to think that the latter outweighs the former.

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