Serious error?

[Siegmund]

Well, if the West at the other table is a member of this forum, I have to double, because so darn many of you are taking the -50!

 

It does seem wildly dependent on the quality and style of the 6NT bidder, but the combined chances of them not running, and of my being able to direct the right lead if they do run, would convince me that I have to try it.

 

Only if I knew my teammates were certainly not in 6NT (maybe they don't play a strong 2NT, or have a relay system to find all their 7m contracts, or they just hate being in 6NT) would I seriously consider passing. I don't think I've ever had such teammates in real life.

[gwnn]

How about an agreement on what doubling the runout means?

It seems silly to let them play the runout undoubled but not really: 7m -1 is the same as 6nt -1. You're already winning when the initial double ends the auction, and you scramble back to equity when they have a place to run.

So I say, after they run, X = lead a spade

pass = lead something else

(or some such thing) By reversing you could double more often so maybe that's right.

This has been mentioned already by at least three other people in this thread.

[lamford]

Serious error would be not to lead from AK

No, 'serious error' would be to lead fourth best of his longest and strongest.

[PhilG007]

Yes, which is why you're in the wrong forum.

 

How can I be in the wrong forum???????

The title of the thread was "Serious error?"

It didn't say what was the basis of the "serious error" Was the "serious error"

bidding a NT slam with two top tricks missing or to double? If so,

then yes to the first and no to the second.

[Vampyr]

How can I be in the wrong forum???????

 

Well...the idea was that your posts are inappropriate in the "Expert" forum.

[wyman]

How can I be in the wrong forum???????

 

 

Well, given this description:

Expert-Class Bridge

Forum designated for expert bridge players to discuss more advanced topics.

 

your responses make it clear that you fail to qualify. This question was very clearly not about noticing that you can cash the ♠AK.

 

You are obviously not a rank beginner, but you could probably learn a heck of a lot in I/A. And while your responses aren't really welcome (for now) in the expert forum, you should still read it and see what you can learn. And if you have questions about the posts here, PM people (unless they ask you to stop), or repost some content with your questions in I/A, where people will often be happy to discuss similar topics in a more detailed and patient way. But, as many people have told you in other topics, few people will be willing to patiently explain things to you if you are belligerent and bull-headed and continue telling people that they are wrong. Be humble; a lot of people in these forums are a lot better than you are. It will take some time for you to figure out who they are, but it will happen.

 

Also, one question mark is probably sufficient for your future questions.

[aguahombre]

But extra ♥ are allowed :rolleyes:

[ArtK78]

But extra ♥ are allowed :rolleyes:

Just don't overdo them. :)

[benlessard]

I think doubling is a good deal on one very important condition. That the 2nd double is going to be lightner and partner is on the same wavelenght. To double without thinking on what you ll do or what will partner lead after 7m is pretty bad.

 

EX double 6NT and doubling 7clubs suggest S while doubling and pass suggest Hearts. This is a normal inference of standard lightner IMO. If you play that way you can double and be sure to never have them making 7m.

 

Even if its much more likely that responder having a solid suit and didnt transfers (to stop lead directing) and decide to just blast to 6Nt rather than he had a quantitative raise but a quantitative raise is still possible and they ll have nowhere to run.

 

Also its posible that the X give half the board.

[jdeegan]

I think doubling is a good deal on one very important condition. That the 2nd double is going to be lightner and partner is on the same wavelenght. To double without thinking on what you ll do or what will partner lead after 7m is pretty bad.

 

EX double 6NT and doubling 7clubs suggest S while doubling and pass suggest Hearts. This is a normal inference of standard lightner IMO. If you play that way you can double and be sure to never have them making 7m.

 

Even if its much more likely that responder having a solid suit and didnt transfers (to stop lead directing) and decide to just blast to 6Nt rather than he had a quantitative raise but a quantitative raise is still possible and they ll have nowhere to run.

 

Also its posible that the X give half the board.

:P Several points:

1. Having to remember a specific agreement to handle a situation that virtually never arises is not something real experts do. A more generalized agreement would make sense, imo.

2. The odds that LHO will get the yips and pull to 7m is non-existent for many players and unlikely for the rest since such hands are exceedingly rare. You should know your opponent a little have some table feel if he/she is getting jumpy or had a problem on the previous round of bidding.

3. Even against 7m, partner may lead a spade.

4. 7m may be unmakable against any defense.

5. The form of scoring is BAM. You get either 0, 1/2 or 1. Work out the possibilities.

[PhilG007]

Well, given this description:

 

your responses make it clear that you fail to qualify. This question was very clearly not about noticing that you can cash the ♠AK.

 

You are obviously not a rank beginner, but you could probably learn a heck of a lot in I/A. And while your responses aren't really welcome (for now) in the expert forum, you should still read it and see what you can learn. And if you have questions about the posts here, PM people (unless they ask you to stop), or repost some content with your questions in I/A, where people will often be happy to discuss similar topics in a more detailed and patient way. But, as many people have told you in other topics, few people will be willing to patiently explain things to you if you are belligerent and bull-headed and continue telling people that they are wrong. Be humble; a lot of people in these forums are a lot better than you are. It will take some time for you to figure out who they are, but it will happen.

 

Also, one question mark is probably sufficient for your future questions.

 

Are you speaking about Hitler(?) He's dead (!) And although this is called an experts forum I've yet to see

anything that remotely resembles "expertism." So far all I've witnessed is egotism,bombasticity,and hot air from the so called

"adepts" here. Their so called "wisdom" is actually a dangerous heresy. The advice they espouse is the ultimate

horror of all true friends of this noble game. Well,I dare to challenge the bigoted dogma that is being promoted here

by would be pedagogues. I love ruffling feathers of the wannabes and the aspirants and I will continue to do so.

The game is bigger than anyone. If I think an "expert" is wrong I will tell them,fearlessly,directly. Experts aren't

right all the time...even though there be some here that like to think so....(!)

[mikeh]

Troll Alert!!!!

 

Warning: this thread has now been godwin'd and should be placed off limits lest the contagion spread.

 

Please do not feed the troll :P

[PhilG007]

Well...the idea was that your posts are inappropriate in the "Expert" forum.

 

OMG another pseudo expert Where do they all come from(?!) <_<

[PhilG007]

Troll Alert!!!!

 

Warning: this thread has now been godwin'd and should be placed off limits lest the contagion spread.

 

Please do not feed the troll :P

 

OK No food for you (!) ;)

[jdeegan]

Are you speaking about Hitler(?) He's dead (!) And although this is called an experts forum I've yet to see

anything that remotely resembles "expertism." So far all I've witnessed is egotism,bombasticity,and hot air from the so called

"adepts" here. Their so called "wisdom" is actually a dangerous heresy. The advice they espouse is the ultimate

horror of all true friends of this noble game. Well,I dare to challenge the bigoted dogma that is being promoted here

by would be pedagogues. I love ruffling feathers of the wannabes and the aspirants and I will continue to do so.

The game is bigger than anyone. If I think an "expert" is wrong I will tell them,fearlessly,directly. Experts aren't

right all the time...even though there be some here that like to think so....(!)

:P I think you are correct to call these poetasters on their self-reinforcing follies. But what about me? I may be below average for my class, but at least I am really an expert. The thread is worth a look because JLall sometimes posts here. Timo and a few others are OK as well. Still, the drivel to real bridge discussion ratio seems to be getting worse.

[Vampyr]

OK No food for you (!) ;)

 

You are aware, are you not, that the person who has godwin'd has lost the argument, no matter what it was about?

[the hog]

Can someone please explain "godwin'd"?

[Vampyr]

Try this link.

[benlessard]

1. Having to remember a specific agreement to handle a situation that virtually never arises is not something real experts do. A more generalized agreement would make sense, imo.

2. The odds that LHO will get the yips and pull to 7m is non-existent for many players and unlikely for the rest since such hands are exceedingly rare. You should know your opponent a little have some table feel if he/she is getting jumpy or had a problem on the previous round of bidding.

3. Even against 7m, partner may lead a spade.

4. 7m may be unmakable against any defense.

5. The form of scoring is BAM. You get either 0, 1/2 or 1. Work out the possibilities.

 

1- Thats why the general rules of lightner should apply

2- There you are wrong, you have 7 pts and the bidding went 2Nt 6Nt. So either the pts are 20-13-7-0 or either responder had a long running suit and just blast to 6Nt. My estimate is that the 2nd case is at least 5 times more frequent. Note that blasting to 6NT and planning to pull a double to rightside might be a valid strategy against "B" players all along.

 

3- Not if you play lightner double and understand them.

4- Yes but you win MP by helping your case not by defeating unmakable contracts.

5- that why I said that the double may wing half-a board. Bam strategy is the same as MP except that your estimate of the "others tables" contract can be more precise.

[jdeegan]

1- Thats why the general rules of lightner should apply

2- There you are wrong, you have 7 pts and the bidding went 2Nt 6Nt. So either the pts are 20-13-7-0 or either responder had a long running suit and just blast to 6Nt. My estimate is that the 2nd case is at least 5 times more frequent. Note that blasting to 6NT and planning to pull a double to rightside might be a valid strategy against "B" players all along.

 

3- Not if you play lightner double and understand them.

4- Yes but you win MP by helping your case not by defeating unmakable contracts.

5- that why I said that the double may wing half-a board. Bam strategy is the same as MP except that your estimate of the "others tables" contract can be more precise.

:P Perhaps you can educate me about the general rules of the lightner double and how it should apply to this as yet hypothetical situation?

 

By the way, pulling sh*t like 5 to one odds totally out of your ass is the very definition of drivel.

[benlessard]

By the way, pulling sh*t like 5 to one odds totally out of your ass is the very definition of drivel.

 

Look at it this way. 1NT (15-17) to your right you have 16 pts and you pass and LHO bid 3nt.

 

Do you think its way more likely that LHO has 7-9 with a long minors that hew expect to run or that he has exactly 9 pts ?

 

maybe 20-80% is too much but 25-75% is about right. Its quite rare that you can bid and expect to make 6NT without a running suit and its even less likely when you see the defender hand.

[jdeegan]

By the way, pulling sh*t like 5 to one odds totally out of your ass is the very definition of drivel.

 

Look at it this way. 1NT (15-17) to your right you have 16 pts and you pass and LHO bid 3nt.

 

Do you think its way more likely that LHO has 7-9 with a long minors that hew expect to run or that he has exactly 9 pts ?

 

maybe 20-80% is too much but 25-75% is about right. Its quite rare that you can bid and expect to make 6NT without a running suit and its even less likely when you see the defender hand.

:P In the high fallutin' world of mathematics this circumstance is considered an example of what is called Bayesian statistics. In the down home clubs where I learned bridge it recalls the story of the man who bet $100 USD that if a man bet that the seven and one half of spades would never jump out of the deck and spit cider in his eye, he better start looking for a towel.

 

The opponents bid just like the HCP's were, in fact, distributed 20-13-7 and zero. This is a seriously Bayesian event. Just a guess, but I have to bet that nobody ever responded to a opening 2NT opener with 6NT and then pulled to seven of a minor after you doubled in all of your bridge experience, or for that matter in the experience of anyone you know, personally. Other experiences related in the thread seem, at best, anecdotal. Passing at IMP's is probably correct given the extreme risk/reward ratio. At BAM - well, try to collect your thoughts and reflect on your folly.

[mikeh]

 

The opponents bid just like the HCP's were, in fact, distributed 20-13-7 and zero. This is a seriously Bayesian event. Just a guess, but I have to bet that nobody ever responded to a opening 2NT opener with 6NT and then pulled to seven of a minor after you doubled in all of your bridge experience, or for that matter in the experience of anyone you know, personally. Other experiences related in the thread seem, at best, anecdotal. Passing at IMP's is probably correct given the extreme risk/reward ratio. At BAM - well, try to collect your thoughts and reflect on your folly.

Just because you haven't seen it happen is no justification for dismissing the evidence of those of us who have. I was playing in the worlds in Verona in 2006 and read the bulletin with my own eyes, and Garozzo did indeed pull from 6N to a making grand when his RHO mistakenly doubled 6N, a act of folly given the imp odds. The result at our table had been more mundane...a small slam in a minor, impregnable.

 

Maybe the bulletin writer lied, but that seems a bit of a stretch since the results were available to check.

[dake50]

Can I believe my eyes???? Holding 2 certain tricks and on lead against a NT slam

you would NOT double??? Show me how 6NT wouldn't fail on the lead of the AS or KS??

Am I missing something???

 

*** Yes. We've already won 1 MP-BAM on this hand.

When we have the +1, what do you think the gain is?

A +1 gilded??

Or are your teammates in this same 6Nt-1??

Sure 6Nt fails. But does 7C/7D? Not likely 7H as few wouldn't transfer to H.

Can't be likely 7C/7D loses our +1, but if it does??? Lost +1 trying to 'gild the lily'.

[aguahombre]

I would never double as my teammates aren't off one in 6Nt.

That is, this BAM double only wins 1/2 MP-BAM if my teammates are -50. Mine aren't.

Can I believe my eyes???? Holding 2 certain tricks and on lead against a NT slam

you would NOT double??? Show me how 6NT wouldn't fail on the lead of the AS or KS??

Am I missing something???

Hmm. Maybe what you are missing is the entire discussion, including your own early post.