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I butchered this one


Hanoi5

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Assume you reversed N&S bidding?

 

If spades are 3-2, you have 4 spades, a ruff in one hand or the other, and 3 hearts with a finesse for K. If one of the minor suit kings wins a trick, you are up to 9 or if both win, 10 tricks. If you can get a cross ruff going, you might make 6 trump tricks 3 hearts, and only need 1 of the minor suit kings. Opponents can/should lead spades when in with the minor suit aces.

 

I'll start with club to the king. If they win the ace and play a trump, I'll win in hand, finesse the heart, and a diamond to the king. Assume another trump is returned. If both minor suits kings are winners, and trumps are 3-2, cash the remaining winners and cross ruff and you'll have 10 or 11 tricks. To best guard against 4-1 trumps, win the 2nd trump so that you can potentially overruff the hand with 4 trumps.

 

If only the K is a winner, win the 2nd trump in dummy, since you want to ruff the 4th round of clubs with a high trump. Ruff a club, ruff a diamond, heart,ruff a club high, and hope to ruff a diamond with dummy's last trump. If only the K is a winner, win the trump return in hand, K, heart to dummy, and cross ruff clubs and diamonds.

 

If both minor suit kings lose on this line, I don't think you have any chance except QJ tight in one of the minors in the same hand with a doubleton trump.

 

If the opponents don't go up A on the club lead, should you play low and try to set up the club suit or go up with the king and hope LHO ducked? You need 4-3 clubs with A in the short club hand, and 3-2 trumps. I make that about 1 in 4 for favorable clubs trumps. So might as well go up K just in case LHO ducked, since your percentage play is to use a dummy entry for a 50-50 diamond finesse. Hope that's right.

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Well, West is pretty much marked with the K so that's eliminated my heart problem and potentially given me two heart entries. I think if I try to cross ruff that too many trumps might come back at me. I'll just aim for a dummy reversal using hearts as entries to ruff clubs in the closed hand. I'll lead a small club to the K at trick 2. If it works then I should be okay because I can get 3 hearts, a club, three ruffs in the closed hand, and AK of spades... wait a minute, that's only 9 tricks...
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