JLOGIC Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 We are almost never getting doubled by a passed hand facing a preempt. Maybe if partner bids, but that is unlikely if LHO has a penalty X hand type. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 [hv=pc=n&s=sakt32hk53daj3c75&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=pp3c]133|200| IMPs My vote only got 130 out of 390.. ? While I was expecting something like 66%[/hv] IMO 3♠ = 10, Double = 8, Pass = 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akhare Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 3♠ for me -- X and then bid would show a stronger hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I don't understand why people believe the choice is between 3S and DBL followed by 3S. The choice is between a takeout double and an overcall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flem72 Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 Many more 3♠ bidders, but the doublers, IMHO, seem heavily weighted toward very high level players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TylerE Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I don't understand why people believe the choice is between 3S and DBL followed by 3S. The choice is between a takeout double and an overcall. Yes, precisely. The whole reason I'm Xing is to get to 3red when partner has a not-uncommon unremarkable 3-7 count and a 5 bagger. Even a 4-3 is likely fine...and if partner has THAT hand it's probably worse than useless as a dummy in 3♠, might as well play in partners suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I actually like pass. Partner's passed hand had better have 2 useful cards to even come close.Shudder to think if West has everything over my tenaces and 3C was 3rd seat with CAK-6th +HQJ10 +S:4-1. East can try a double with his "good defense" preempt.IMP's fear the -800 = -12 disaster more than 140-50 = +3.AK +A +K is enough "stuff" but 5=3=3=2 is no surprise shape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I actually like pass. Partner's passed hand had better have 2 useful cards to even come close.Shudder to think if West has everything over my tenaces and 3C was 3rd seat with CAK-6th +HQJ10 +S:4-1. East can try a double with his "good defense" preempt.IMP's fear the -800 = -12 disaster more than 140-50 = +3. Do you fear 4S making as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted September 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I tought that the distribution was going to be something like at least 60% for double and less than 5% for pass. But on BW there is a lot more 3S than double, also the number of passers is really puzzling for me since I consider myself a conservative player and dont really consider passing an option. Or course I plan to pass 3 red since X and 3S show a better hand. I guess I should strive to overcall instead of double a bit more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhm Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I would always bid 3S, def think X then 3S should be moreWhether 3♠ or double is more likely to find the right strain can be argued. I would certainly overcall 1♣ with 1♠ The trouble with 3♠ is that at this level it is now a much more unilateral action and we might not belong in spades. For example if there is a double you might well go for a telephone number against nothing. DBL from us is far safer should we be outgunned. Rainer Herrmann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 The trouble with 3♠ is that at this level it is now a much more unilateral action and we might not belong in spades. For example if there is a double you might well go for a telephone number against nothing. DBL from us is far safer should we be outgunned. But the auction tells us that we're unlikely to be outgunned, and very unlikely to be doubled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 But the auction tells us that we're unlikely to be outgunned, and very unlikely to be doubled.It's conceivable that partner is as weak as a one count here (give both opponents bad 12 counts). I presume you are trying to support Andy's claim? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TylerE Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 It's conceivable that partner is as weak as a one count here (give both opponents bad 12 counts). We could very well be out-gunned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 "Do you fear 4S making as well?" -- the hog*** Picture for me what you think a passed partner's hand MUST have to make 4S. Isn't it 2 useful cards and something more?Is that even in the 30% to expect from passed partner?That repeats my reasoning. Show your reasoning -- construct partner's hand and suggest that construction is anywhere close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 "But the auction tells us that we're unlikely to be outgunned, and very unlikely to be doubled." -- gnasher*** Assuming of course the 3rd-seat 3C was very weak. Not a good defense deviation in 3rd-seat.If 3S is systemically not really strong: 18+; thus limited, won't that blab to good-defense 3C try double??Some such as CAK +HQJ10 +Sx(S-void) suggesting bad S-split and a defensive bonanza. Little danger in getting higher to 4C -- if partner can't see that bonanza. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 Mark me down as favoring 3♠ as well with a goodish 5 card suit. I'll take my chances with a hand this strong but if I had somewhat less, I'd pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I once opened 3♣ in 3rd seat on an 18-count, and later got to double 4♦ for 800. However, I don't think enough people do this often enough for us to worry about it. Some people may preempt on a 12- or 13-count in third, but they hardly ever act again. Hence we're only rsking an undoubled penalty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I don't understand why people believe the choice is between 3S and DBL followed by 3S. The choice is between a takeout double and an overcall. I don't think anyone has suggested dbl followed by 3S as an option. The side-tracked discussion has been about how much more that auction would show, not that anyone actually wants to follow it on this hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I don't think anyone has suggested dbl followed by 3S as an option. The side-tracked discussion has been about how much more that auction would show, not that anyone actually wants to follow it on this hand.I did sort-of suggest it as an option, or at least I suggested that I'd like it to be an option. If it showed this hand, it would obviously be better than simply bidding 3♠. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 I don't think anyone has suggested dbl followed by 3S as an option. The side-tracked discussion has been about how much more that auction would show, not that anyone actually wants to follow it on this hand.When multiple posters only said they would bid 3S and that Double followed by 3S shows more, that sounded like they were weighing an overcall versus a 2-step sequence ---and not considering a takeout double itself. But, that's just me reading words and trying to understand them. It has occurred to me that in the poll referenced, maybe the contributers had the same problem and chose 3S for that same reason. Anyway, I put myself in that chair predicting the results of polled experts but not taking a position on 3S vs X. At the table, I'd be thinking 3S wins or breaks even when Spades should be the strain, and that double would lose on a few of those; while, Double could gain when a red suit or 3CX should be the strain ---and would probably break even when we get to Spades anyway. It is slightly more complicated than that. We must also consider whether ---if Spades do become trump---the X or the overcall would have helped us get to the correct level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted September 12, 2013 Report Share Posted September 12, 2013 Can't speak for anyone else but I was just replying to this: Does double followed by 3♠ show this, or should we have more of something? When I said X then 3S should show more. Obv shoulda quoted it to make it clear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdeegan Posted September 13, 2013 Report Share Posted September 13, 2013 :P Interesting thread. It really separates the sheep from the goats. The real players all bid 3♠. Double is not insane, but it is clearly inferior - and for the same reason why you should bid 1♠ over a 1♣ opener by RHO. A pass is really timid. Timo has his ranking system. Mine is even simpler. On the occasions where my bid disagrees with JLOGIC, I go back to the drawing board to see where I screwed up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lorne50 Posted September 13, 2013 Report Share Posted September 13, 2013 I ran a simulation with the first 2 hands having no bid, 3rd hand a normal 3C opener (7 cards or a good 6 card suit) and 4th hand fixed as shown. Results for number of tricks made over 1000 deals were: . <=8 9 10+♣ 528 283 189♥ 613 190 197♠ 376 254 370NT 806 93 101 Difficult to be certain but it looks to me that 3♠ is a winner - it beats pass given that it makes 624 times (unless partner raises a lot when he shouldn't and 3♣ also makes quite often if you pass. What I can't model is whether dble gets us a decent score since partner may pass for penalties or bid a major or bid 3N but gut feel looks like 3S is a winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TylerE Posted September 13, 2013 Report Share Posted September 13, 2013 I don't think that's a valid aet of sims for determining this. How do we do in ♥ when responder's ♥ are 2 or more cards longer than spades? Or better yet, do this: Generate 5000 random responder hands If responder holds 4 good, or any 5 clubs defend 3♣ XOtherwise we play in responders longest suit, with ♥ rather than ♦ when equal length. That will come close to telling us how X does. I'm sure ♥ is worse than ♠ on random hands, but how about when responder actually has ♥? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiddity Posted September 13, 2013 Report Share Posted September 13, 2013 Thanks for the sim; I agree that passing looks pretty terrible based on those numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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