Crazy or Not Part 1

[eagles123]

Matchpoints

 

[hv=pc=n&e=sq74hakq94d5ca763&d=w&v=e&b=16&a=p1h]133|200[/hv]

 

 

I chose to bid 1NT here. my thought was at this vulnerability we were probably better off playing than defending and if I passed 1H there was a possibility it would get passed out, maybe going down a couple whereas all P really needed for 1N to be on was a stop in Diamonds... It worked a treat as P had the Ace of diamonds and, amazingly, the J of hearts and we got a top for 1N + 1 but I'm not sure if it was a reckless bid that got lucky or if my reasoning was ok.

 

Thanks,

 

Eagles

[Wackojack]

Overcalling 1NT looks like a reasonable bet. Presumably you are playing "system ON" responses. You would then be very well placed if partner bids 2♥ showing a 5 card spade suit. The danger is if partner has a weak hand with 5 diamonds and 4 spades. He may well then bid 2♣ Stayman and then pass your 2♦ response. It then could even be right to lie with a 2♠ bid to avoid this. Even with this risk I think it is better than pass. Not because it could be passed out but because it would be more dangerous to enter the bidding if say the bidding went 1♥-1NT-2♦-pass to you.

[mgoetze]

It worked a treat as P had the Ace of diamonds and, amazingly, the J of hearts and we got a top for 1N + 1

Good... and what would the result of the normal action (pass) have been? Assume your partner reopens with a double everytime he should do so (which I realise may not be the case with your actual partner ;) ).

[PhilG007]

On more than one occasion,I've held a good suit but,annoyingly,RHO bids it first(!)

Many moons ago in my novice days,my bridge teacher,an excellent player,once told me,

"If you know where you are going,go there quickly;if not hold back"

This is exactly that same situation Partner has passed. LHO has not yet bid Assumption is a dangerous word in bridge. Difficult though it might be,pass is the correct action on this hand and await developments. Never try to guess or hope. Rely on luck and you may find,to your sorrow,what a fickle

mistress she is(!)

[Codo]

I had passed.I am minimum for my 1 NT range (15.18), I have no length to develop and a side defect in diamonds, One downside too many.

As partner is a passed hand, the vulnerability is NO reason to bid. It is just good if you can make something. Your possible 1 NT -1 compared to 1 NT made by them would be a MP"disaster". And do not even think about 1 NT -2....

[Cyberyeti]

Good... and what would the result of the normal action (pass) have been? Assume your partner reopens with a double everytime he should do so (which I realise may not be the case with your actual partner ;) ).

 

What are you going to do over 1♥-P-1♠-P-2♠ ? This can easily be making when you make 1N and shut the spade suit out.

[Codo]

What are you going to do over 1♥-P-1♠-P-2♠ ? This can easily be making when you make 1N and shut the spade suit out.

 

But even if this can happen, how often will this occur compared to ...1 NT X pass pass or 1 NT X 2 Diamond X or some other "nice" problems?

[Cyberyeti]

But even if this can happen, how often will this occur compared to ...1 NT X pass pass or 1 NT X 2 Diamond X or some other "nice" problems?

 

I'd suggest that the expectation is that the points are approximately split equally between the two sides, 1N doesn't get doubled very often and is rarely more than -1 undoubled.

[gwnn]

What are you going to do over 1♥-P-1♠-P-2♠ ? This can easily be making when you make 1N and shut the spade suit out.

Where are our tricks coming from in this 1NT?

[Cyberyeti]

Where are our tricks coming from in this 1NT?

 

For example based on what was described by the original poster, Jx, Jx, Axxxx, xxxx we have 7 off the top and will likely make an 8th in spades, they will make 3♠. Even if they can run the spade suit because partner doesn't have the J, that's all they'll get and we'll get 90.

[TylerE]

Hoping opening opened a 10 high suit (or worse) is a pretty narrow range to be shooting for.

[Cyberyeti]

Hoping opening opened a 10 high suit (or worse) is a pretty narrow range to be shooting for.

 

I was just using what the OP gave me, sure partner can have something utterly useless like Kx, xx, Kxxxx, xxxx but even something as bad as Ax, xx, J109xx, xxxx should make 6 tricks most of the time with 2/3 of the high cards on the right and the possibility of a spade lead from the K.

[gwnn]

We have 15 hcp, opps have roughly 18-24, but partner's utterly useless hands have 5-6 points? And a spade stop? And long diamonds to keep opps from running them. Good to know.

[mikeh]

The problems with overcalling 1N are not only that 1N may be a bad spot but also that we have a partner who is entitled, and expected, to be taking action with many hands on which this 1N overcall will prove a disappointment. Of course, there are hands on which a more normal 1N would also prove a disappointment, but this hand has several features that make it more likely than normal.

 

Partner may get overly optimistic about his trick taking potential in diamonds, expecting us to hold at least xx. This is not a huge risk if we play a weak 2 ♦ opener but isn't a zero risk in any method.

 

We hold a minimum. The xx in hearts, which we'd usually consider a big plus due to the AKQ holding, rate to be of very little use. Yes, we 'know', if we read the spoiler, that partner held the J, but the odds are very heavily against that at the time we need to bid.

 

We have nowhere to go if LHO has the balance of the points and says double.

 

We may be in big trouble if they run diamonds on us...we need to make some pitches and we may not be able to afford to pitch spades.

 

IOW, bidding 1N with this hand is, imo, a poor choice with limited and very narrow upside and almost unlimited downside.

 

I think it slightly more justifiable at mps, where -50 or -100 may actually be a good board against their 110 or so (assuming the hand belongs to them as, by a slight margin, it rates to), but at imps the risk of -500 against a partscore makes bidding a mistake, imo.

[Cyberyeti]

We have 15 hcp, opps have roughly 18-24, but partner's utterly useless hands have 5-6 points? And a spade stop? And long diamonds to keep opps from running them. Good to know.

[Cyberyeti]

We have 15 hcp, opps have roughly 18-24, but partner's utterly useless hands have 5-6 points? And a spade stop? And long diamonds to keep opps from running them. Good to know.

 

We have 15 partner can have 10 or 11 so I don't know why you assume opps must have 18 (do you really expect partner to balance with Jxx, xxx, KJ9x, KQx for example ?), opener has 10-19 we start about even, I gave partner what I felt was a likely shape if opps could play in spades, which means he's quite likely to be 2254. Even without a spade card, give him club KQ and out, there must be a decent possibility the Q♠ will stand up given that points are likely to be 13:7 or so.

[gwnn]

All of your constructions in this threads have perfect cards and none of them are minimums. OP himself said that the heart jack was a miracle card, yet when you wanted to take away a jack from Jx Jx Axxxx xxxx, your first impulse was to go for the spade jack! Yes, partner can have 10-11 in some fields but:

-not all fields

-the probability in any case is low, much lower than him having a terrible hand (weaker than your examples and with fewer perfect cards)

-and why are you saddling him with THREE HEARTS? Don't you think 1-2 is much likelier?

 

It's nice to prove a point and show some examples where your approach gains but please don't say that it's easily possible or pretend that these example hands are normal or remotely representative.

[mikeh]

We have 15 partner can have 10 or 11 so I don't know why you assume opps must have 18 (do you really expect partner to balance with Jxx, xxx, KJ9x, KQx for example ?), opener has 10-19 we start about even, I gave partner what I felt was a likely shape if opps could play in spades, which means he's quite likely to be 2254. Even without a spade card, give him club KQ and out, there must be a decent possibility the Q♠ will stand up given that points are likely to be 13:7 or so.

All of your posts read as if you decided, without much analysis, that bidding 1N was the best action. You then, it seems, saw that a number of posters disagreed and you have since then made several posts in which your examples of hands and auctions are all chosen, perhaps unconsciously, to 'prove' that your chosen action was correct.

 

If I am correct, you have fallen into the very common trap of deciding what you want to be true and then allowing your wishes to determine your analysis. You would have done well as an advisor to George W. Bush or Tony Blair :D

 

Yes, partner 'can' have 10-11 points. So what does that say about the likelihood that making a distorted, minimum overcall working out?

 

I pick up a flat 15 count in 1st seat. Partner could have 25 hcp, but I'm not about to open 7N, because the odds are against me. That was, of course, an exercise in reductio ad absurdum, but hopefully it shows the point.

 

Don't merely posit holdings on which your preferred choice works. Posit choices on which it doesn't work, and try to be balanced about this, altho objectivity is probably impossible for anyone absent a well-crafted simulation.

 

For everytime he has a well-placed 6 or 7 count, he'll have a horrible 4 or 5 count.

 

Remember, it is simply wrong to assume that all the hcp absent from RHO and us are split with equal probability between LHO and CHO, as would be reasonable were RHO dealer.

 

Give RHO a minimum....say 12 or even 13. It remains possible for LHO to hold ALL of the missing hcp and partner to have zero. It is practically impossible for partner to hold all of the missing hcp.

 

So assuming that partner has 5 or 6 hcp (or better), and especially placing him with strategically chosen honours, may make you feel better about your pre-chosen ideas, but fools no-one but yourself.

 

The same is true about assuming that the opps have an 8 card spade fit that you want to pre-empt. You are missing 10 spades and the odds are against the opps holding 8 of the 10, especially when partner will usually hold 1 or 2 hearts and didn't pre-empt. Indeed, since his pass constrains his minor holdings compared to the ones available to LHO, the odds slightly favour partner holding 4 or 5 spades more often than LHO. Btw, fairness requires that I agree that similar arguments make LHO slightly more likely than CHO to hold 6+ spades.

 

Try looking at this problem anew, with no preconceived ideas and see whether you still think 1N best...I'm not saying I am 'sure' that it isn't....my views may be mistaken....but I am saying that your arguments so far seem very, very weak.

[mycroft]

15, 12, there's 13 out there and when they're split 9-4, you're either in 3NT with potentially no hope (especially if the spades or diamonds are bad) or in 1NTx, making 5, maybe 4 tricks.

 

How often is that going to happen? I don't know. But that's the concern (of course, that's *always* the concern with a natural NT overcall). This time, with no developing cards, if they do double, they will be right.

[Cyberyeti]

All of your posts read as if you decided, without much analysis, that bidding 1N was the best action. You then, it seems, saw that a number of posters disagreed and you have since then made several posts in which your examples of hands and auctions are all chosen, perhaps unconsciously, to 'prove' that your chosen action was correct.

 

If I am correct, you have fallen into the very common trap of deciding what you want to be true and then allowing your wishes to determine your analysis. You would have done well as an advisor to George W. Bush or Tony Blair :D

 

Yes, partner 'can' have 10-11 points. So what does that say about the likelihood that making a distorted, minimum overcall working out?

 

I pick up a flat 15 count in 1st seat. Partner could have 25 hcp, but I'm not about to open 7N, because the odds are against me. That was, of course, an exercise in reductio ad absurdum, but hopefully it shows the point.

 

Don't merely posit holdings on which your preferred choice works. Posit choices on which it doesn't work, and try to be balanced about this, altho objectivity is probably impossible for anyone absent a well-crafted simulation.

 

For everytime he has a well-placed 6 or 7 count, he'll have a horrible 4 or 5 count.

 

Remember, it is simply wrong to assume that all the hcp absent from RHO and us are split with equal probability between LHO and CHO, as would be reasonable were RHO dealer.

 

Give RHO a minimum....say 12 or even 13. It remains possible for LHO to hold ALL of the missing hcp and partner to have zero. It is practically impossible for partner to hold all of the missing hcp.

 

So assuming that partner has 5 or 6 hcp (or better), and especially placing him with strategically chosen honours, may make you feel better about your pre-chosen ideas, but fools no-one but yourself.

 

The same is true about assuming that the opps have an 8 card spade fit that you want to pre-empt. You are missing 10 spades and the odds are against the opps holding 8 of the 10, especially when partner will usually hold 1 or 2 hearts and didn't pre-empt. Indeed, since his pass constrains his minor holdings compared to the ones available to LHO, the odds slightly favour partner holding 4 or 5 spades more often than LHO. Btw, fairness requires that I agree that similar arguments make LHO slightly more likely than CHO to hold 6+ spades.

 

Try looking at this problem anew, with no preconceived ideas and see whether you still think 1N best...I'm not saying I am 'sure' that it isn't....my views may be mistaken....but I am saying that your arguments so far seem very, very weak.

 

That I have 15 points IMO affects the chance of opener having a very good hand. I would suggest that 13 for opener, 6-7 for LHO and 5-6 for partner is probably around par, hence I've been constructing hands in that range. Also I have the advantage that I'm probably sitting over the bulk of the points, in fact if opener holds 15 (so neither partner nor RHO is likely to have much and partner's pass doesn't mean he holds less than LHO) I may be very well off as my Q♠ looks a lot better.

 

I haven't even given partner a long club suit where it's really wrong to pass.

 

I actually don't consider this 1N that minimum, and partner should be aware it can be slightly offshape. If he transfers to spades I'm delighted, KJxxx, x, xxxx, xxx makes 2♠ an awful lot of the time, are we taking lots of tricks after 1♥-P-1N-P-P-P ?

 

I just feel at MPs you win more often than you lose by bidding, although when you lose you can lose big.

[mycroft]

My concern is "usually, sitting over the opener helps because your minor honours should grow up. Here, you have no minor honours other than the spade Qxx, and a high honour in lefty's hand can kill that. So where are your tricks coming from?"

 

Yes, if LHO has 6 or 7 and partner has 5 or 6, you're getting out for safe, as you'll get to dummy once, you should be able to scrounge a sixth trick, and you won't be doubled. But make that 9-4, either way, and you're less happy.

 

These points are different from other points. We're white, which means if we can get out for -100, we're golden. If we don't get doubled, we're probably getting out for -100.

 

There are lots of upsides here, especially if partner bids. I guess I agree with you, though - when you lose here, you lose big.

[mikeh]

We're white, which means if we can get out for -100, we're golden. If we don't get doubled, we're probably getting out for -100.

 

There are lots of upsides here, especially if partner bids. I guess I agree with you, though - when you lose here, you lose big.

I think this analysis is simply wrong, and I think that the error that I see in it has also played a role in cyberyeti's approach.

 

I have no idea why anyone, looking at this hand after a 1♥ opening on one's right, would think that any minus score, let alone -100, would be 'golden'.

 

We can't at this stage know where they will play if we pass. We can't know what partner's hand will be worth on defence against that contract. If a 1N response is forcing, and LHO is 3=2=4=4, then there is a real chance that we'll be defending 2♥!

 

We don't need to be defending hearts to get a plus on a hand on which 1N fails our way. We don't even need to defeat 2m, when 1N is -100 our way.

 

It seems to me that at mps, the odds that the hand belongs to us, in the sense that we will have a bigger plus declaring or that our minuses will be good scores, ignores that fact that the opps may well be headed for a bad score if we pass. Bridge is a hard game to play well, and sometimes even the best players can't get to the optimum contract, nor do the average mp players cope well when hands suddenly turn ugly on them, and if we pass there is a decent chance that the opps are about to have that very experience.

 

I also feel that to some degree this whole thread got off on the wrong track when we were told that 1N led to a top.

[PhilG007]

"Many players forget that 'pass' is also a bid;one that you will make

more often than not and,in the long run,is often the most profitable"

-the late Jeremy Flint

[gordontd]

"Many players forget that 'pass' is also a bid;

-the late Jeremy Flint

Actually it's not.

[gwnn]

I reread the thread and I think there may have been a confusion. I was talking about the supposed scenario where it would have gone 1H-p-1S-p; 2S-? In that case our LHO rates to have significantly more HCP than CHO (LHO has, say, 5+ and CHO has 0+). In that context giving pd 6 hcp does not seem like utterly useless to me. Giving him an ace and JT9xx of diamonds also isn't bad at all.