When to make a move?

[broze]

[hv=pc=n&e=saq94ht52dk86ck82&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=1cp1s4h4sp]133|200[/hv]

 

As far as I can see, p can plausibly have anything from a shapely 12 to a pretty great hand. When should you make a move in this spot?

[ggwhiz]

Umm, NEVER! (with those cards) unless you want to lay some fear and loathing on your pard. I make a 4-1 spade split 80% and 5-0 20%.

[mr1303]

Bidding on here is hanging partner.

[broze]

I'm aware that partner can be pretty weak here. My point is that because he can be so wide ranging you'll miss plenty of slams. KTxx x Ax AQTxxx is probably the perfect minimum (13 HCP) and couldn't he be much much better than this?

[mikeh]

I tend perhaps to be a little overly optimistic in these jammed auctions, but I find it hard to construct 4♠ bids on which we lack decent 5 level safety and easy to construct hands on which slam is very good.

 

I assume partner has a hand that would be a full-values 3♠ raise in an uncontested auction.

 

I assume moreover that partner holds at most 2 hearts. He will downgrade a holding such as Qx. He will not be 4432 unless he holds 18+ hcp.

 

He will almost always hold 5+ clubs. Please note that if he opens 1♣ on 4=1=4=4, then I don't move. The inference that he holds 5 clubs is critical to slam evaluation, since this is my side source of winners.

 

I'd make a try, by bidding 5♣. I am making no further move over either red suit cue: I want to convey a mild slam try that needs more than just a heart control.

 

If he holds, say, 4=3=1=5, then I am going to look very silly, but the odds of that are surely low.

 

 

Edit: if partner can hold a 'shapely 12', I abstain! To bid 4♠ on a shapely 12 AND a good 18 or 19 is silly. Sometimes, when you hold a minimum and partner is still there, you have to pass and hope that partner can protect: you'd pull a strength showing double to 4♠ of course. The other approach, where you allow their pre-empt to destroy your constructive bidding altogether just doesn't sit well with me (other than to make me yearn for a big club context where partner won't ever think I have a big hand).

[mgoetze]

He will almost always hold 5+ clubs. Please note that if he opens 1♣ on 4=1=4=4, then I don't move. The inference that he holds 5 clubs is critical to slam evaluation, since this is my side source of winners.

 

This analysis seems somewhat simple to me; 4144 is an a priori rather unlikely shape, certainly the odds of it have gone up, but it will surely still be less likely than, say, 4135. It may well be that the possibility of 4144 tips the scales, but that should only be so because the rest of your analysis is close.

 

I do play one system where I open 1♣ on 4144; of course I also open 4243s 1♣ in that system, which should be a much more serious consideration. ;)

[rmnka447]

Sometimes preempts work. Here is a good case.

 

There's no way to know exactly what your partner's hand is. Pard could be pushing a tad or really have a very strong hand, but you can't know which. So, the best policy is to stay "fixed" and accept a probable decent result of 4 ♠. Reserve trying for slam for when your hand warrants pushing on by itself. Normally, that would include a control in the opponent's suit, good fitting cards with partner, etc.

 

Here you have about opening values, but a rather tepid holding otherwise. Partner has to have an awful lot of values to make 12 tricks opposite your hand. Give you something like ♠ AQxx ♥ x ♦ Axx ♣ KJxxx and slam comes much more into focus as a possibility. Now the presence of a double fit and controls makes the 5 level safer and slam a much better possibility.