mycroft Posted August 20, 2013 Report Share Posted August 20, 2013 I'm confused. I'm sure there is a place where you can be +EV and still lose - Yarborough's bet comes to mind. The loss is based on the fact that after you eat $1000 tonight, despite the fact that you're up $1100 over the last 7 months, you don't have any more money to bet (and yes, I know the odds aren't 1100-1) - because you've already spent at least 100 of that winnings. If not tonight, then twice in a week. Or four times in a month. These times happen. Yes, nobody's going to actually set up games in the player's favour; but between suboptimal play and having a loss limit (and sometimes, a win limit), 100.05% games will make money. Just not as much as 97% games. Yes, once it gets to 103%, given players aren't on the hook for 70% of their bankroll on every play, players aren't going to run out of money. But there has to be a point where it works (given that blackjack with perfect counting and +EV video poker (with perfect defence) exist(ed), so we have two proven examples). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted August 21, 2013 Report Share Posted August 21, 2013 If you count cards at blackjack, you have a 0.5% edge on the casino in a normal blackjack game. And, while a good card counter working for the casino may be able to work it out, unless you are betting enormous amounts the casino is unlikely to care. I was only thrown out of one casino, and that was about 30 years ago. Dave Treadwell, who was very good at it, was only unwelcome in one or two Atlantic City casinos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted August 21, 2013 Report Share Posted August 21, 2013 That's not how I understand it. Don't Pass pushes on either 2 or 12, depending on the casino, so the house keeps its edge that way. The house's edge is thus a bit better on Pass than Don't Pass.Yes - there is a push - according to what I read, it is on 12. This reduces the odds of winning by 1/72, as you will push one time in 36. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted August 21, 2013 Report Share Posted August 21, 2013 I meant it as an opinion of human gambler behavior, not a game theory computation. Many gamblers tend to bet until they are broke, then go home.There's a serious flaw in this logic because human behaviour hasn't got anything to do with it. You suppose an individual has to earn back his own money to make the casino lose, while in fact another player can easily win another individual's losses back (hurting the casino). In fact, when a whale bets relatively small amounts, he can play forever and slowly make a profit. Example:Suppose you have 8 people betting their last dollar on a coin flip and the casino pays out 2.01 times your wager if you win. Suppose half of these people bet heads, the other half bet tails. After one coin flip you have 4 guys broke, but 4 guys now have 2.01 dollars. 4 guys go home and the casino lost 4 cents in the process. If we continue this and 2 of the remaining guys bet all their money on heads, the 2 others bet tails, you'll have 2 more guys broke and 2 guys having 4.04 dollars. Casino is already 8 cents down. And so on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted August 21, 2013 Report Share Posted August 21, 2013 If you count cards at blackjack, you have a 0.5% edge on the casino in a normal blackjack game.Not in a good casino any more. The dealers are trained to spot the pattern of a card counter - little chat, much concentration, string of small bets followed by a large one. Thy also have a rule in place that the deck can be changed at any time. So you count cards for a couple of hours while the game is EV- losing slowly. Then the game comes back to you and you go for the big bet but the house reacts by changing the deck and you are back to square one in an EV- game. This is the history of casinos - whenever someone finds a way to break the bank they change the rules. Has been ever since the first time it was done (a man worked out the bias points of roulette wheels and bet exclusively on those numbers - the casinos now change the wheels every day). Since the MIT teams did their thing, all casinos in the world are pretty hot on catching card counters. If you do it professionally enough then you will earn yourself not only a ban in the casino you are working in but also in many of the major casinos all around the world. That is fundamentally why Andy Bloch switched to poker - it is just easier to make money there now and the casinos are happy about it because they still make their profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted August 21, 2013 Report Share Posted August 21, 2013 I am, perhaps belatedly, coming to think of the OP as presenting some seriously interesting questions. I am off to the Shenandoah for a couple of days, but I will take another look when I get back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted August 21, 2013 Report Share Posted August 21, 2013 That is fundamentally why Andy Bloch switched to poker - it is just easier to make money there now and the casinos are happy about it because they still make their profit.Poker may also be easier to make money at because you are playing against other players, who can be bad. The casino cannot be bad at blackjack or roulette! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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