I opened 6D

[hautbois]

[hv=pc=n&s=shakj82dakqjt92c7&n=saj9876h7dcqjt643&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=6dppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Playing with a new partner and having no techniques to find specifically the A♣ or Q♥ over any opening bid, I bashed.

 

Lead is the K♠.

 

I think everyone knows what to do at trick one. Then what?

[manudude03]

Throw the club away and finesse hearts hoping for Qxx(x) onside or someone having T9x.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Trick 1 take Ace and pitch your losing ♣.

 

Now, you need 4-3 split in ♥ and either:

(a) the Q onside -3rd or 4th ( in which case you next play a ♥ to the J ) ... or

(b) the Q-3rd in either hand ( in which case you duck the 1st ♥) .

 

What are the odds for (a) vs (b) ?

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

EDIT: I think there is a 3rd option (c ) -- a take-off of option (b) :

Since you can lead a ♥ from your hand for option (b),

you could cater to a Q-4th offside by ruffing a ♠ and running your ♦ save one.

You might just get a useful ♥ pitch from the Q-4th hand . You lose nothing if the Q was originally 3rd .

[gszes]

you were lucky to get a spade lead and lucky several 7 level contracts are not there

but you were also unlucky to get all those club honors in dummy where all can see

them. Try to save those 6 level openers for hands where you need one of the top 2

"trumps" to make 7 (and you have no special tools to ask).

 

Everyone can see those club honors and all will know they need to hold hearts

to set you. Do not think of doing anything cute. You have a legitimate LOP at this

so take your legitimate shot now and finesse the heart and yap all day about how

lucky or unlucky you are:))))))) If you make this maybe this is right day to buy a lottery ticket.

 

Assuming a 43 split finessing the J makes about 57% of the time and ducking a heart

or playing AK and small (same thing) makes about 42% of the time. When there are

no clues in bidding or play to guide you it is best to play the hand with the longer suit

holding for a specific honor. Using this rule will save you a lot of agony about the best

% play. Note on this hand there are plenty of holdings where playing the J is right when

rho holds 4 hearts and lho holds 3 but there are NO HOLDINGS (where playing the j

doesn't also work) where ducking a heart helps when lho holds 4 hearts and rho

holds 3. That's usually a strong clue about your best % lop imagination.