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  • 2 weeks later...

:P Imo, the posters are correct. Open with one, and then bid 2 over the double. So, you end up in 4. This is a very high percentage game. You have only four possible losers and potential discards on dummy's spades given time. A lot has to go wrong for you to go down. Rough estimate of the probabilities:

1. Club opening lead - 50%

2. Club ace with RHO - 80%

3. Heart king with LHO - 60%

4. Heart king with RHO four times - 5%

5. Spades misbehave - 25%

Figuring all of these combined chances is a bit of a Bayesian mess (e.g. the location of the club ace and the probability of a club lead are interconnected), but you gotta figure you are roughly 2 to 1 to make 4. It's a bidders' game. Not being in 4 is an error.

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