lycier Posted August 11, 2013 Report Share Posted August 11, 2013 [hv=sn=|lin=pn|waterwang,Dee_Dee_20,dvd,DonnaS|st%7C%7Cmd%7C4S247AH7D2369TAC9A%2CS568TH258TDQKC58T%2CSJKHJQKAD48JC37QK%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%202%7Csv%7Cn%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1D%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1S%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2C%21%7Can%7CGF%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2D%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C4D%21%7Can%7Crkc%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C5D%7Can%7Cstop%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C6D%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cmc%7C11%7C]499|350[/hv] 结果：6♦S-1 [hv=sn=|lin=pn|stan04,85581182,ShirleyU,ahhnlwz1|st%7C%7Cmd%7C4S247AH7D2369TAC9A%2CS568TH258TDQKC58T%2CSJKHJQKAD48JC37QK%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%202%7Csv%7Cn%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1D%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1S%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2C%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2D%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C4N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C5S%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C6N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cmc%7C12%7C]499|350[/hv] 结果：6NN= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lycier Posted August 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2013 [hv=sn=|lin=pn|waterwang,Dee_Dee_20,dvd,DonnaS|st%7C%7Cmd%7C2S458AH38TAD4C57TK%2CS367TH579D89KC29A%2CS2KH24KD237JAC3JQ%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%204%7Csv%7Cb%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1D%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CDQ%7C]499|350[/hv] 结果：3♥S+1 另一桌：结果：3NN+1 [hv=sn=|lin=pn|stan04,85581182,ShirleyU,ahhnlwz1|st%7C%7Cmd%7C2S458AH38TAD4C57TK%2CS367TH579D89KC29A%2CS2KH24KD237JAC3JQ%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%204%7Csv%7Cb%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1D%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cmc%7C10%7C]499|350[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbxkh Posted August 11, 2013 Report Share Posted August 11, 2013 飞还是砸？有谁来计算一下概率 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dvd Posted August 11, 2013 Report Share Posted August 11, 2013 只考虑概率而不考虑其他因素的话，利用空位原理，可以简单的计算一下，前面3墩，已经吃到。第4墩的时候东出了d7还有9张牌，而西还剩10张牌，也就是说西有dQ的概率是,10/19，而东是9/19，砸比飞的机会要高1/19。 先吃的墩数越多，如果2边都跟牌没有垫牌，那么砸的机会就越大。比如闭室的路线，在sK吃到后应该进一步探查牌情，而不应该马上决定飞还在砸； 实战路线直接砸明显操之过急了，已经有了11墩，且送出了一墩。其他不说，最后挤牌的机会主动放弃了。 可以先吃完s3,h4，c3（2边全部都跟出！），最后2墩牌时才从明手出d（这时明手应该是d，c各一张），如果他们的信号看不出剩下的s和c在哪边。利用空位原理，东有dQ为1/3(d7后只剩1张），西为2/3,这个时候毫无疑问该选择砸了。 说回到6d，考虑到叫牌和首攻因素，通常来说，s和c应该不坏于52，h应该不坏于53，这样计算的话，砸的机会要增加，大概比飞高出1/11左右，所以说实在没有办法了，还是砸吧！请记住：8飞9不飞. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dvd Posted August 11, 2013 Report Share Posted August 11, 2013 这幅和pd估计叫误会了，我的3h是表示接受邀请，示选3n or 4h。不知道pd如何理解的这个3h？ 3n那边的防守也出了问题，正常应该-1，可以先于庄家吃到5墩。 就实际分布而言，4h明显好于3n，可惜了。一进一出，这幅算起来输了不少（其实全场决定输赢的就这幅和第2幅）。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lycier Posted August 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 [hv=sn=|lin=pn|xhq,kristylee,dvd,Hamish00|st%7C%7Cmd%7C1S29TJH8QD2AC3579Q%2CS4QAH47JD4678KC46%2CS36KH6TD9TJQC28JA%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%2015%7Csv%7Cn%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cmc%7C9%7C]499|350[/hv] 结果：2♥E+1 140 另一桌结果：Pass [hv=sn=|lin=pn|Joylson,lycier,sallyally,wqiqiqi|st%7C%7Cmd%7C1S29TJH8QD2AC3579Q%2CS4QAH47JD4678KC46%2CS36KH6TD9TJQC28JA%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%2015%7Csv%7Cn%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7C]499|350[/hv] 问题是：这牌第四家你愿意开叫2♥吗？ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lycier Posted August 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 [hv=sn=|lin=pn|Joylson,lycier,sallyally,wqiqiqi|st%7C%7Cmd%7C4S5678TH26D358AC48%2CS49QAH59KD2JQKCJA%2CS2JH7JAD679TC29TQ%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%2014%7Csv%7Co%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2N%21%7Can%7C20-21%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3D%7Can%7Cxtr%20%21H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C4C%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C4N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C5D%7Can%7C03%20keys%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C5H%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cmc%7C11%7C]499|350[/hv] 结果：5♥W= 评论：好悬被打宕，误以为4♣扣叫的满贯兴趣。那么，大家觉得这牌如何选择落脚点呢？ 另一桌结果：3NW= [hv=sn=|lin=pn|xhq,kristylee,dvd,Hamish00|st%7C%7Cmd%7C4S5678TH26D358AC48%2CS49QAH59KD2JQKCJA%2CS2JH7JAD679TC29TQ%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%2014%7Csv%7Co%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C2N%7Can%7C20-21%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3C%7Can%7Cstayman%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3S%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3N%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cmc%7C9%7C]499|350[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dvd Posted August 12, 2013 Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 这个牌，东3h后再跨过3n叫4c，slam try 有点不太够，hQ换成hA还差不多，现在这样的牌，除非pd在d上面没有什么废点，比如d上面减少4点换成hA。 总得来说，还是要求过高了，有些理想化。3h后，老实的叫3n可能是本手。虽然是55套，但是2个套的质量都比较差，这样的牌不适合叫得太积极。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dvd Posted August 12, 2013 Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 不支持这样的2h，第4家这样的牌选择开叫阻击性质的2h，不太适合，pd不一定h有配合，如果他还有5张s，则有可能2h宕而2smk。 没有任何理由认为2h就是最佳定约，这牌正常可以选择开1h； 至于最后一家开叫2M应该是什么样的牌，我认为应该是6张半坚强套，15p左右，邀请pd8+进局的牌。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madongjun Posted August 12, 2013 Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 我会选择PASS的。不符合22法则，第四家以得到正分或不失分为目的。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madongjun Posted August 12, 2013 Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 转换红心后，东叫出3NT，让同伴在成局（3NT或4♥）定约中做选择比较好。5♥的庄很好，特别是对将牌的判断和处理。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xhq Posted August 12, 2013 Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 我认为东第二轮再叫出4♣不为过分。假如双套配合，西家的♦KQJ2换成♦Axx,♣AQJ。6♥slam应该是手到擒拿。所以这牌探查满贯应该是正常的，最后停在5♥是OK！不过开叫人在应叫人4♣后探查满贯应该谨慎行事，因为你的♦KQJ2可能对着应叫人的单缺，所以，♦换成Axx比较好，探查♥slam顺理成章。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IVAN CY LO Posted August 12, 2013 Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 我认为东第二轮再叫出4♣不为过分。假如双套配合，西家的♦KQJ2换成♦Axx,♣AQJ。6♥slam应该是手到擒拿。所以这牌探查满贯应该是正常的，最后停在5♥是OK！不过开叫人在应叫人4♣后探查满贯应该谨慎行事，因为你的♦KQJ2可能对着应叫人的单缺，所以，♦换成Axx比较好，探查♥slam顺理成章。 叫回3NT 更好。要是開叫人改4H，可以問A 查滿貫。 手上2張K，2控，需要開叫人最少持有3A1K 才可打成滿貫。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yunling Posted August 12, 2013 Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 4♣显然是自然叫。 西家这牌听见4♣还不赶紧4♥收摊。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madongjun Posted August 12, 2013 Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 我觉得要示选局的话，应该叫3N，同伴想打4♥的话，再改到4♥更合理。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
601821297 Posted August 14, 2013 Report Share Posted August 14, 2013 按哈代书上所说，第4家开叫的这个2H应该有6张以上并具有开叫实力 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
00master Posted August 14, 2013 Report Share Posted August 14, 2013 这副牌开叫2H的赚了，可能下副牌开叫2H的会亏了。按约定来，不管是亏还是转，才可能得到同伴的信任。当然，任何情况下都允许判断。临场叫牌，叫不叫2H都可以接受。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartA Posted August 14, 2013 Report Share Posted August 14, 2013 这副牌开叫2H的赚了，可能下副牌开叫2H的会亏了。按约定来，不管是亏还是转，才可能得到同伴的信任。当然，任何情况下都允许判断。临场叫牌，叫不叫2H都可以接受。同意。我会开叫2H。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
00master Posted August 14, 2013 Report Share Posted August 14, 2013 这幅和pd估计叫误会了，我的3h是表示接受邀请，示选3n or 4h。不知道pd如何理解的这个3h？ 3n那边的防守也出了问题，正常应该-1，可以先于庄家吃到5墩。 就实际分布而言，4h明显好于3n，可惜了。一进一出，这幅算起来输了不少（其实全场决定输赢的就这幅和第2幅）。 其实不接受邀请的话可以pass 2NT的，所以3H当然是让同伴选择进局的方式 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lycier Posted August 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2013 丢局挺遗憾的，不过大家坚定信心，面包会有的...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lycier Posted August 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2013 按哈代书上所说，第4家开叫的这个2H应该有6张以上并具有开叫实力 此时的2♥=11-13hcp，6张+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lycier Posted August 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2013 这副牌开叫2H的赚了，可能下副牌开叫2H的会亏了。按约定来，不管是亏还是转，才可能得到同伴的信任。当然，任何情况下都允许判断。临场叫牌，叫不叫2H都可以接受。 我是非常赞同你的全部评论，得失互见，需要牌手临场时的敏锐嗅觉的。所以啊，临场叫牌，叫不叫2H都可以接受。 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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