Pass or takeout partner's double

[Zelandakh]

I'd estimate the likely number of trumps at about 18, with more chance of 17 than 19.

I agreed with everything you wrote except this. Given that you add one for a double fit, 19 is surely more likely than 17, no?

 

@Justin: I seem to remember your posting that you play 2 types of Michaels over a Weak 2, which would mean that 3♥ was not available. I am interested to hear how you then handle these hand types.

[PhilKing]

Why double though ?

 

I didn't. :blink:

[mgoetze]

3♦?????

 

Choice is between 3♥(my choice) and Double.

Dear Phil,

 

could you please, for the benefit of intermediate bridge players such as myself, elucidate the reasons why 3♦ should not merit serious consideration?

[lycier]

4♠ is an easy decision I think.

[PhilKing]

Below are all of the 3 minor overcalls over a 2♥ opening in part 1 of my database.

 

6.Q83.K97.AKJ854

JT6.K84..AKJ9865

Q97.AQ.4.KQJ8653

Q.63.AJ5.AKJ9753

KQJ5.43.8.AKJ854

K63.A9.A5.QT9863

J982.4.K6.AQJ932

62..7654.AQJ8654

T952.A.J6.KQJ986

AKJ2.A5.8.KT8762

K74.J8.T5.AKJT54

K6.Q65.AJ.A97432

A62.Q85.Q.AK8643

Q.J63.K86.AQJ875

 

74.5.AKQJ962.J93

K65.2.KQ86542.KQ

8.KJ.AQJT52.QJ73

864.A87.AQ9876.4

K.T75.KQJ964.AJ9

8.A.AKQ932.T9853

Q53.4.AKQT76.JT8

KQT.AT3.KQT873.3

QT6.KJT.AQT642.7

 

The hand under discussion is stronger than any of those, and way stronger than most. Basically there is no example of any top player overcalling 3m on a hand this strong - you are going to miss too many obvious 3NT contracts. Caveat, I have only looked at first in hand openings so far, and understand that there is scope for a stronger range over 3rd in hand openings, but the sample size is small. One spectacular example though - over a 3rd seat 2♥, 3♣ was chosen on A75.A7.A2.KQJ964 which led to 5♣ down one rather than 3NT up one. The players were almost never both facing a 2♥ opening, so direct comparisons are rare, but Welland did not overcall on the K74.J8.T5.AKJT54 hand where his counterpart did (it made no difference, as it happens). The weakest overcall was below:

 

[Event ""]

[site ""]

[Date ""]

[board "20"]

[West "DAI"]

[North "FANTONI"]

[East "YANG"]

[south "NUNES"]

[Dealer "W"]

[Vulnerable "All"]

[Deal "W:83.KQJ764.QT9.32

62..7654.AQJ8654

K754.932.KJ8.K97

AQJT9.AT85.A32.T"]

[scoring ""]

[Declarer "N"]

[Contract "5CX"]

[Result "12"]

[Auction "W"]2H 3C Pass 3NT Pass 5C X AP

[Play "E"]

H2 HA H4 D4

C7 CT C2 C4

H3 H5 H6 C5

C9 D2 C3 CA

S7 SQ S3 S2

H9 H8 HK C6

S4 SJ S8 S6

S5 S9 H7 C8

[Room "Closed"]

[score "NS +1000"]

[bCFlags "1f"]

 

Boom!