Zelandakh Posted August 21, 2013 Report Share Posted August 21, 2013 I'd estimate the likely number of trumps at about 18, with more chance of 17 than 19.I agreed with everything you wrote except this. Given that you add one for a double fit, 19 is surely more likely than 17, no? @Justin: I seem to remember your posting that you play 2 types of Michaels over a Weak 2, which would mean that 3♥ was not available. I am interested to hear how you then handle these hand types. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted August 21, 2013 Report Share Posted August 21, 2013 Why double though ? I didn't. :blink: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgoetze Posted August 22, 2013 Report Share Posted August 22, 2013 3♦????? Choice is between 3♥(my choice) and Double.Dear Phil, could you please, for the benefit of intermediate bridge players such as myself, elucidate the reasons why 3♦ should not merit serious consideration? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lycier Posted August 22, 2013 Report Share Posted August 22, 2013 4♠ is an easy decision I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted August 22, 2013 Report Share Posted August 22, 2013 Below are all of the 3 minor overcalls over a 2♥ opening in part 1 of my database. 6.Q83.K97.AKJ854 JT6.K84..AKJ9865 Q97.AQ.4.KQJ8653 Q.63.AJ5.AKJ9753 KQJ5.43.8.AKJ854 K63.A9.A5.QT9863 J982.4.K6.AQJ932 62..7654.AQJ8654 T952.A.J6.KQJ986 AKJ2.A5.8.KT8762 K74.J8.T5.AKJT54 K6.Q65.AJ.A97432A62.Q85.Q.AK8643 Q.J63.K86.AQJ875 74.5.AKQJ962.J93 K65.2.KQ86542.KQ 8.KJ.AQJT52.QJ73 864.A87.AQ9876.4 K.T75.KQJ964.AJ98.A.AKQ932.T9853Q53.4.AKQT76.JT8 KQT.AT3.KQT873.3 QT6.KJT.AQT642.7 The hand under discussion is stronger than any of those, and way stronger than most. Basically there is no example of any top player overcalling 3m on a hand this strong - you are going to miss too many obvious 3NT contracts. Caveat, I have only looked at first in hand openings so far, and understand that there is scope for a stronger range over 3rd in hand openings, but the sample size is small. One spectacular example though - over a 3rd seat 2♥, 3♣ was chosen on A75.A7.A2.KQJ964 which led to 5♣ down one rather than 3NT up one. The players were almost never both facing a 2♥ opening, so direct comparisons are rare, but Welland did not overcall on the K74.J8.T5.AKJT54 hand where his counterpart did (it made no difference, as it happens). The weakest overcall was below: [Event ""][site ""][Date ""][board "20"][West "DAI"][North "FANTONI"][East "YANG"][south "NUNES"][Dealer "W"][Vulnerable "All"][Deal "W:83.KQJ764.QT9.32 62..7654.AQJ8654 K754.932.KJ8.K97 AQJT9.AT85.A32.T"][scoring ""][Declarer "N"][Contract "5CX"][Result "12"][Auction "W"]2H 3C Pass 3NT Pass 5C X AP[Play "E"]H2 HA H4 D4C7 CT C2 C4H3 H5 H6 C5C9 D2 C3 CAS7 SQ S3 S2H9 H8 HK C6S4 SJ S8 S6S5 S9 H7 C8[Room "Closed"][score "NS +1000"][bCFlags "1f"] Boom! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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