Which line is best?

[Balrog49]

This hand is from a local club game. You are declarer in 6NT. West leads the ♠4.

[hv=pc=n&s=s98haq974dakckq52&n=sakq7h65dqt5caj93]133|200[/hv]

The heart finesse is 50% and if it loses, there may be a major suit squeeze. Or you can cash the ♥A and then lead toward the queen. A throw-in works when West has no more than three spades, three diamonds, and four clubs. Cash all your winners, ending in dummy, and play a heart covering whatever East plays.

 

Which would you choose and why?

 

As the cards lay, the throw-in was the winning line of play.

[manudude03]

The finesse is surely more likely. I would first lead a heart to the 9, if it loses cheaply, we can attempt to get a read on the position whether to finesse the queen of hearts or play for a major suit squeeze.

[Fluffy]

chances of heart honnors divided ♥K-♥J10 are around 13%, chances of a major suit squeeze will be around 20%, maybe more. So heart to the queen and IMO its not close. We need the club communications to cash ♦Q and be able to squeeze, so can't even test much, still play ♦AK and ♣KA before heart finesse in case something happens.

[PhilKing]

Win on table and notice East's card. You don't need to form a plan until you have a feel for how the cards lie. Cash two diamonds and four clubs, ending on table.

 

Depending on what clues you have picked up, proceed as appropriate. For instance, if West is short in clubs, you will probably go for for an endplay, but if West is long, play a heart to the nine. Don't get too caught up in the maths and keep your options open as long as possible.

[JLOGIC]

I can't imagine a scenario where I'd play for an endplay, even if I knew west had the long spade I will have to guess if he stiffed his HK or not (unless I somehow had the diamond count, and know LHO has exactly 4 spades and 3 or less diamonds).

 

Personally I'd play a heart to the 9 early, then try to guess the endgame that way (on a good but not so great day, I have a showup sqz, on a great day I will know I have a sqz on LHO in the majors!). Giving up the JT of hearts onside for some speculative endplay is not ever happening imo.

[manudude03]

The finesse is surely more likely. I would first lead a heart to the 9, if it loses cheaply, we can attempt to get a read on the position whether to finesse the queen of hearts or play for a major suit squeeze.

[Balrog49]

Thanks to everyone who answered! There's another reasonable line in which you play West for four spades. Come down to a three card ending and throw West in to play a heart. I'm using the hand in my bridge column in the local Sunday paper and will post it when it's done.

[JLOGIC]

Thanks to everyone who answered! There's another reasonable line in which you play West for four spades. Come down to a three card ending and throw West in to play a heart. I'm using the hand in my bridge column in the local Sunday paper and will post it when it's done.

 

They win and cash a diamond, unlucky. That was my point imo that even if we know the spade count we can't just have an auto endplay, we would need to know LHO had 3 diamonds also.

[Fluffy]

indeed, endplay is totally blind, I was mistaken and also thought that delayed heart finesse or squeeze is blind, but I was wrong, for starters if East is squeezed it will show up, and even if it is west it might show up as well or they can discard badly, and also if you are good at reading endings you are way ahead. So a heart to the 9 is much better.