Lead

[Finch]

[hv=pc=n&w=sqt642hq6dj742c83&d=e&v=n&b=15&a=p1c2sd4s5cp6c6spp7cppp]133|200[/hv]

 

If you are embarrassed about your WJO, you were 40 imps behind at the start of this 16-board set in a ko match

rho is an strong pro, lho is the sponsor

 

What do you lead against 7C?

What do you lead if partner doubled it?

Is your answer different in these two cases? If so, why? If not, why not?

 

[if you get this right, then everything else being equal you lose the match by 1 imp. But if you do get this one right, you might concentrate better on the next board and concede fewer overtricks.]

[mikeh]

I'm leading a diamond, with no strong conviction.

 

I choose a diamond only because I'd expect a lead directing double with the heart A, the only suit implied/shown by dummy. They might be off an Ace. Admittedly, it is tough to picture a hand on which the diamond goes away, but maybe LHO is 1=4=4=4 and rho is 2=3=1=7 and the hearts provide the discard.

 

I choose a heart should partner have doubled.

 

If a spade cashes, and RHO was gaming us, he wins. Why he'd screw around on this sort of board, with a big lead, is beyond me and I won't assume he lacks the promised 1st round control of spades shown by his pass of 6♠.

 

Making up hands is a mug's game, but how about this layout?[hv=pc=n&s=sa7ht94d9cakqt632&n=s8hakj8dkq85cj974]133|200[/hv]

 

Please ignore the duplicate club 3: I thought we held 85, not 83. I suspect it isn't material :P

[MrAce]

Maybe i am too naive to think that pd would have bid 6 red suit with a red suit Ace before he bid 6♠, perhaps at that level of bridge and 40 imps behind. (he might have decided bidding 6 red will stop them from bidding a bad grand)

 

We made a very agressive wjo and imo LHO has either

 

a-1st round control of spades

 

or

 

b-He is assuming his pd has 1st round control in spades (looking at xxx spades in his hand and pd has 4 of them)

 

So i would lead spades. W/o confidence

 

I did not work it out yet what i would have led had pd doubled.

[Fluffy]

I don't see any opp showing a trick source, but if they have any it would be diamonds, I would not lead a diamond then.

 

IMO the pro who is 40 up clearly has spade first round control, so it is useless. ♥Q is my best option to put the contract down so 'd never lead that suit, this leaves only a trump lead.

 

If partner doubles trump is out, and I'd go for diamond which he could ruff.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&w=sqt642hq6dj742c83&d=e&v=n&b=15&a=p1c2sd4s5cp6c6spp7cppp]133|200|

If you are embarrassed about your WJO, you were 40 imps behind at the start of this 16-board set in a ko match

rho is an strong pro, lho is the sponsor

What do you lead against 7C?

What do you lead if partner doubled it?

Is your answer different in these two cases? If so, why? If not, why not?

[if you get this right, then everything else being equal you lose the match by 1 imp. But if you do get this one right, you might concentrate better on the next board and concede fewer overtricks.][/hv]

IMO

• v 7♣, ♣ = 10, ♠ = 9, others = 5. Hope client over-bid. Pro's pass of 6♠ shows 1st round-control.
• v 7♣X, ♦ = 10, ♥ = 8, others = 4. Trust partner who saw red when he doubled.

BTW, Prefer public voting. Who voted for what can be more useful than just numbers.

[Winstonm]

I lead a spade - I think they were trying to push us into a phantom 7S sac.

[GreenMan]

I'm most persuaded by MrAce's suggestion that North has ♠xxx and thus believes South is void, especially after we take the push to 6. With no double, I lead a spade.

 

With the double I haven't a clue.

[mikeh]

I'm most persuaded by MrAce's suggestion that North has ♠xxx and thus believes South is void, especially after we take the push to 6. With no double, I lead a spade.

 

With the double I haven't a clue.

This isn't about LHO (north).

 

RHO is a strong player. It is standard to play that pass of 6♠ promises first round control, and the pro surely expects that his partner, who is into the game enough to hire a former world champion, knows this.

 

A pro isn't (usually) going to do something weird when paid to play, and with a big lead, going into a hand where, if they bid grand and we cash a spade, it is clearly the pro's fault. At least, that's the way I read the situation.

 

Now, maybe RHO has so many spades that he thinks his partner may be void, but that's risky, especially since with the values for 6 or 7 and a spade void even a client might find the cue of 5♠ on the way to 6♣.

[mike777]

fwiw as a non expert

 

1) x will ask for non spade lead...

2) I lead spade with no x.

3) everything MIkeH and others say makes sense. just not sure both on same wavelength but sure....

[GreenMan]

This isn't about LHO (north).

 

RHO is a strong player. It is standard to play that pass of 6♠ promises first round control, and the pro surely expects that his partner, who is into the game enough to hire a former world champion, knows this.

 

A pro isn't (usually) going to do something weird when paid to play, and with a big lead, going into a hand where, if they bid grand and we cash a spade, it is clearly the pro's fault. At least, that's the way I read the situation.

 

Now, maybe RHO has so many spades that he thinks his partner may be void, but that's risky, especially since with the values for 6 or 7 and a spade void even a client might find the cue of 5♠ on the way to 6♣.

 

Interesting; thanks for the explanation.

[gszes]

partners failure to bid a red suit at the 6 level tells me there

is nothing special over there. I am not going to give up my

possible trick in either red suit based on that information

alone. If p x he should be prepared to beat this on a trump

lead heck he might even have the trump ace. I do not see

a spade as ever being effective given how the bidding took

place (see mikeh).

[jallerton]

IMO

• v 7♣, ♣ = 10, ♠ = 9, others = 5. Hope client over-bid. Pro's pass of 6♠ shows 1st round-control.
• v 7♣X, ♦ = 10, ♥ = 8, others = 4. Trust partner who saw red when he doubled.

BTW, Prefer public voting. Who voted for what can be more useful than just numbers.

 

Perhaps we could ask the people who write the forum software to allow "Nigel style" voting so that each voter awards marks to each alternative. Then the alternative with the best average marks is deemed to be the consensus call.

[MrAce]

There are a lot of different ideas about forcing pass showing/promising 1st round control in opponent suit for grand slam. There are good players who believes that it does not necessarily promise, depending on auction.

 

However MikeH has a point in this particular auction. LHO did not bid 5♠ before he bid 6♣, so RHO knows LHO is unlikely to hold void in spades. This would rule out RHO bidding 7 with too many spades in his hand with the hope that pd has void.

 

But this does not mean i should lean towards a red suit lead. We are not leading vs slam. A red suit lead can turn into the only way to let them make grand. Or rescue them from making a critical decision. It is far from being safe. This left us between trump and spade i guess.

 

If we are giving too much credit to a top pro - client partnership, we may as well eliminate the spade lead and lead trump. If we have doubts about their methods then spade lead is still an option imo. Especially if we think about psychological factors and mind games and expectations due to the score. After all, it is hard to imagine at the table that spade lead lets them make their grand even if it turns out to be that they have 1st round control.

[Fluffy]

Great Tmo, thx for coming to my conclusions :P

[MrAce]

Great Tmo, thx for coming to my conclusions :P

 

Leads are worst part of my bridge.

 

I still would lead spade, i have faith on opponents making mistakes much more than others. http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif

 

Don't get me wrong, i am not claiming that spade is the correct lead, i am just saying what i would lead at the table, and the arguments that are made in favour of a red suit did not convince me.

 

 

 

[mikeh]

so, Frances? What works?

[Finch]

Partner has the ace of hearts.

 

The poll demonstrates that he was right that double (probably) wasn't going to help.

 

I led a spade against 7C for most of the same reasons that others did. I do think I should repeat a comment my partner made to me on a different hand, namely "stop assuming that everyone else plays the same way that you do" as RHO, who passed 6S, did not have a spade control.

 

Partner didn't double because he wasn't confident it asked for a heart lead, and he was hoping that the contract might just be short of stuff anyway (swap your 7 of diamonds with dummy's 8 and it would have been hopeless on any lead). He didn't bid 6H over 6C either because he didn't think of it, expecting 6S to end the auction; or because he had 6 hearts and was worried the lead would be ruffed; or because he was hoping to generate a huge swing in our favour which that wouldn't have achieved (take your pick).

[nige1]

Partner has the ace of hearts. The poll demonstrates that he was right that double (probably) wasn't going to help.

... I'd expect a lead directing double with the heart A, the only suit implied/shown by dummy. They might be off an Ace. Admittedly, it is tough to picture a hand on which the diamond goes away, but maybe LHO is 1=4=4=4 and rho is 2=3=1=7 and the hearts provide the discard. I choose a heart should partner have doubled.

IMO, partner should Lightner-double. If he does then you have about a 50% chance of finding the right lead. Or better if you follow Mikeh's reasoning. Perhaps better still, if you've discussed this before.

[Fluffy]

I Agree with nige, double would make heart lead more attractive, getting sure no spade or trump is lead.

 

I understand that not everyone has to play like me, but making a foricng pass after 1♣ + voluntary vul vs not 5♣ lacking ♠A and ♥A looks weird to me, specially being 40 up.

[JLOGIC]

Bidding 6H with the ace of hearts is just horrible risk averse bridge. Think about what you're saying, I don't want them to bid 7 off the ace of hearts because partner might make the wrong lead. You're down 40 and if you just bid 6S and X 7C you are ~50 % to get a heart lead (partner will lead a red suit), and even when you don't get a heart lead surely you have some chance that they don't have 13 winners. I'll take the action of defending 7C on a red suit lead all day when I have the ace of hearts, thanks.

 

Now, not doubling seems quite bad, if we don't double there is a good chance partner will lead a black suit. If we double, that won't happen. That right there is enough to double.

 

Something funny might be to bid 6D, the opponents might realize you don't have a diamond void (depending how many diamonds they have), and then when they have the ace of diamonds might assume you are simply bluffing hoping to save in 6 without them bidding a cold 7 and bid 7. Now when you double you will get a heart lead for sure if partner is in on the joke (if you wanted a diamond lead you'd just pass). But it takes a certain kind of opponent, most opponents will have never seen a bluff like that and will not bid 7, which means it is a very strong bluff to pull off when you have no defense and want to save (in my huge sample size of 1, this has worked 100 % of the time!). So even then, I wouldn't do it, since my hope is that they will bid 7 when I have a cashing ace...not that they won't!

[JLOGIC]

Partner has the ace of hearts.

 

The poll demonstrates that he was right that double (probably) wasn't going to help.

 

 

Depends what you mean by this but 5 % of people led a heart with no double, and about 35 % led a heart with one (sorry I am throwing out people who lead a black suit after a double since you would not do that lol). So you increase your chance of beating a grand by 30 % if you double, that's obviously very significant and that is why Xing with a red ace is just automatic. And of course sometimes we will have an easier heart lead rather than a diamond lead, on avg we rate to increase the chances of a heart lead by more than 30 % when we double.

[JLOGIC]

As for the lead problem if partner doubles, there is a very strong clue that partner has an ace rather than a void...with a void he probably would have made a lightner X of SIX clubs. It's not a lock if he thought our save was just too super cheap to pass up, but since he passed in first seat and didn't open 1S or 2S or something else, that is unlikely. It seems like he'd hope to score a ruff and the hypothetical (if he doesn't have it) ace of spades, or some other random side trick and beat their slam, esp down 40, rather than save opposite what might be a very random w/r 2S opp a PH down 40 for 500 or 800.

[jallerton]

Partner's hand was ♠KJxxx ♥A10xxxx ♦10x ♣void.

 

He explained to me that he decided not to double 7♣ because he was worried that this might persuade the opening leader to try to give him a ruff, in which case she rated to lead a diamond most of the time. He didn't consider Justin's point about the inference from failing to double 6♣, although it's not clear how strong this inference is: after all, if he does have a red suit void 6♠x does rate to be very cheap with the fate of 6♣ unclear.

[JLOGIC]

So is his point that partner is more likely to lead a heart without the double than with one?

[Fluffy]

I was hoping that if partner had ♥A they didn't have 13 tricks, 7 clubs, 3 diamonds, 1 spade, the 2 extra ones are surely a spade ruff in dummy and a 5th diamond, so declarer is 2227, quite close.