How would you play this one?

[Fluffy]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sj73ha76daq764c106&s=sa10942hqd2cqj7432]133|200|Scoring: MP

W - N - E - S

1♦ -ps -1♥ -1♠

3♥ -3♠ -4♥ -4♠

ps -ps -ps[/hv]

 

The opening lead is ♥J

[inquiry]

4♥ is surely down, probably two at least (at a minimum, you will score three aces and a ruff, and probably will get three aces, damond Queen, and either a diamind ruff or diamond promostion. So you must play to make.

 

You must lose two clubs, so you have to hold your spade losers to one. The percentage play in spades is to doulbe hook EAST in spades (lead jack and float or lead small to dummy and then re-finessee later). Some times, you can throw the percentages out the window however. Is this one of theose times? Yes. I will bang the spade ace and exit a small spade. Now for the why.

 

They didn't bid 4♥ on this auction with only half the deck without significant distribution. East is marked with the heart king (presumably), and possible a club honor since no club A/K lead. But in any event, West jumped in hearts (four of them), EAST bid on game... so one of them and maybe both of them have distribution.

 

First question, can WEST be five hearts and six diamonds? Hopefuly no, because you can no survive any 4-1 trump split (they will force you with heart ruff and you will not be able to set up clubs without losing control. And West can't be 2-5-6-0 (and if he is, he has KQ doubleton of spades so banging Ace is still ok). So you simply have to assume 3-2 spades. If WEST has three spades KQx this is all academic, so you have to play for WEST's spades to be, where you double hook on the all but the last one.

 

Acceptible WEST spade holdings

Kx

Qx

Kxx

Qxx

KQ

 

So the odds are still appear to be heavily in favor of the double hook. You are entitled to know what 3♥ showed. Weak? (probably not), 16 or so playing points (probably). Since WEST has to have at keast one club honor you also have to wonder about their 1NT range. If west has both club honors, and the needed two spade cards at minimum, after he bid both red suits, what is his NT range? Let's assume 15-17 so we can eliminate hands like....

 

S-KQ

H-JTxx

D-KJxxx

C-AK

 

or

 

KQ

JTxx

KJxx

AKx

 

.....as he would open 1NT and west wouldn't bid 4H on the balanced hands he would have to hold facing these... So the hand has to be something like this...with WEST short in clubs, this give EAST enough values (two kings and a stiff) to bid game.

 

[hv=d=n&v=a&n=s

j73ha76daq764ct6&w=skqhjtxxdkjtxxxca&e=sxxxhkxxxxdxckxxx&s=sat942hqd2cqj7432]399|300|Scoring: IMP

So anti-percentage, sure. But seems the only change... play spade ace and a spade.

[/hv]

[helium]

i would play ♣, ruff hart return and more ♣, if they play more ♥ i ruff play ♦to Q and and ace ruff a ♦ and ruff a club whit the 7 if possible. this way i try to get a tromp coop

[Fluffy]

strong NT 16-18, 3♥ would be balanced only if had 15 exactly. (yes, their system is very bad, but that is not the point).

[Fluffy]

People seem to scare about answering card playing problems, face to face often turns into a guess, and so this one was, here the full deal.

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sj73ha76daq764c106&w=sk8hkj105dkj983ca9&e=sq65h98432d105ck85&s=sa10942hqd2cqj7432]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

As the cards lie the only line that will succed, is low ♥ from dummy at trick 1, there is a lot to say about playing low ♥, specially at MP, when it can turn into a big disaster, but today it was the winner.

 

A very strong contender was to play ♥A, and ♣, ♥ruff and ♣, another ♥ruff, a ♦ finese to get into dummy getting to this position:

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sj73ha76daq764c106&w=sk8hkj105dkj983ca9&e=sq65h98432d105ck85&s=sa10942hqd2cqj7432]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

At this point you try a ♠ from dummy, losing to the K, but West is endplayed, forced to give you an entry to dummy finesing ♠Q and cashing your clubs. Is it?

 

Not really, East can kill this endplay by putting ♠Q!, if you overtake to play a trump ruff and discard will lock you in dummy, while if you duck ♠Q, East will promotoe ♠K with last ♣.