simulation needed

[Zelandakh]

What you are dealing with here is a somewhat more mathematically savvy version of 32519.

Which luckily makes it easier to show that it is rubbish being posted. It would have been more difficult if he had started a thread about starting a joint project for creating a new evaluation method based purely on statistics with various factors.

[bd71]

Without making any comment on the validity of the LOTT, this type of analysis - even done accurately - is not sufficient to assess the usefulness of "the Law."

 

LOTT does NOT argue that total trumps is correlated with throw tricks available to ONE pair, but rather to the tricks available to both pairs. If I read the analysis right, you are assuming that 2S-1 is a "bad" result, but -50/100 sure beats -110/140. You have to take a different approach to answer your question.

[jogs]

You didn't put flat patterns, you put mirror shape which is a different issue, put a doubleton in a minor and you will have flat shape.

 

Okay you got me. I went out of my way to show 5332 in the worst

possible light. Also double dummy analysis has a bias favoring the

defense of 0.35 to 0.5 for normalized HCP. No one in the real world

can find all those killer defensive lines. 7.645 tricks/board is low.

Expect approximately 8.

Is 5332 a flat pattern? It is relative. 5332 is the third flattest of 39

possible patterns. Only 4333 and 4432 are flatter. When pard knows

you hold five in the suit 5332 IS the flattest possible pattern. 1M-4M

with 5332 must have netted some poor results. With normalized HCP

and a known 5-4 trump fit 5332 will generate less than 9 tricks.

a) 5332 // 4243

b) 5332 // 4234

Do these two joint patterns generate the same expected tricks?

I don't know. Guessing it will be close with a) slightly higher.

c) 5431 // 4333

Does c) generate more or less tricks than a) and b)?

All SST=4 are not equal. Expect fewer than 9 tricks whenever the

SST => 4. Expect more the 9 tricks whenever the SST =< 3.

Joint patterns which generate fewer tricks than trumps are arbitrarily

defined as flat.