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Ten-card fit but no ace


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We're white, they're red, MP's:

 

Q6x

KT7xxx

KJ

Q3

 

You open second seat with 1 and partner shows 10-12 with 4-card support (via 3), what contract do you want to play? Why?

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You can easily have 4 quick losers from the top, this hand is all about slow cards, doesn't have a single trick, balanced,... Obvious 3 imo. It's not just because we have 10 trumps that we have to bid game.
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I thought I wanted to go to 4H anyway, expecting to make it opposite most hands where partner had two aces.

 

Ran a quick sim (partner has exactly 4 hearts, 10-12 HCP), and got confirmation that it is only making 4H double-dummy about 30% of the time, which surprised me. I was prepared to be wrong about 4H, but not prepared to see the success rate below 40%. That is low enough that even with the 'opening lead bonus' from the defense you probably aren't making quite often enough.

 

Guess I learned something new today.

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I thought I wanted to go to 4H anyway, expecting to make it opposite most hands where partner had two aces.

 

Ran a quick sim (partner has exactly 4 hearts, 10-12 HCP), and got confirmation that it is only making 4H double-dummy about 30% of the time, which surprised me. I was prepared to be wrong about 4H, but not prepared to see the success rate below 40%. That is low enough that even with the 'opening lead bonus' from the defense you probably aren't making quite often enough.

 

Guess I learned something new today.

 

OP stated "10-12" - not 10-12 HCP. It would be amazingly bad for partner to have 12 HCP often, for instance - 9HCP with a doubleton is more typical. So the sim also has to be condemned as well.

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OP stated "10-12" - not 10-12 HCP. It would be amazingly bad for partner to have 12 HCP often, for instance - 9HCP with a doubleton is more typical. So the sim also has to be condemned as well.

 

Yes, if the sim had said that going was obvious opposite 10-12HCP, I'd have gone on to worry about removing the good and shapely 12s and adding shapely 9s, etc. Since the sim was already telling me not to go I didn't bother with the refinement.

 

Though, for those of us who open a lot of 11s -- our partners DO only make limit raises with 4432 and 12HCP.

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We're white, they're red, MP's: Q 6 x K T 7 x x x K J Q 3

You open second seat with 1 and partner shows 10-12 with 4-card support (via 3), what contract do you want to play? Why?

IMO 3 = 10, 4 = 6. You are unlikely to make 4. Also 4 is more likely than 3 to disturb sleeping dogs. HCP are fairly evenly split. Opponents must have a fit. If they have a less dull shape and more aces than you, then their "sacrifice" may make.
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3 never 4 on the auction given. That may even be too high.

 

I'm not opening this hand 1 ever. I might make a weak 2 opening bid when playing in a very aggressively bidding partnership. Qx and KJ tight are worth less than their point count. Only 1 QT.

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Though, for those of us who open a lot of 11s -- our partners DO only make limit raises with 4432 and 12HCP.

Even some of those of us who don't open 1 on 11 unless it is a 6 card suit still make a 3 bid on 11/12 HCP. There is nothing to stop responder bidding game over opener's sign-off, and having such strength in the 3 means that when you bid 2 (Jacoby 2NT) you are known to be stronger. This can help in the slam zone.

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Partner probably held Jxx, Axxx, A10x, J10x and you're supposed to work out how to get to 3N :)

 

But seriously 3N from your hand may well be more likely to make than 4, but it's almost impossible to explore, you either bid 3 or 3N, and at pairs I'd probably bid 3 but am not too unhappy with 3N.

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