I felt lucky and went down like a punk

[Hanoi5]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqj42ha92dak4cq6&n=sk53hj5dqt65cak75&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=1dp1sp2c(%21)p2hd2sp4np5hp5np6cp7nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

♦7 was led. Opening leader has singleton spade, all follow suit to three rounds of clubs. ♦8 appears on the first trick from East and on the next honour from hand ♦2 and ♦3. West discards hearts on the spades. 23J of clubs from West, 49T from East.

[inquiry]

On your description of your line. Some things to consider.

 

East had four spades... and it is almost a certainty four clubs. Why? The opening lead and West showing up with T94 of clubs. IF he had T984 he surely would have tried that rather than a speculative diamond. Some people reasonable believe it is not good to lead King from KQ against slam, fortunately, they are few and far between (and WEST DID great if he avoided it here if he had heart KQ).

 

So East appears from your description be either 4-3-2-4 or 4-2-3-4 (And we need one of these anyway),, or the unlikely West with 1-4-4-4, in which case you can not really go wrong. You can get some hearts from his hand. He will need to throw a heart on the 5th spade. And when you cash the ♥A he will need to follow suit. If you are lucky, he will not be able to pitch a high heart to fool you (west will need the KT or QT long for this to be certain).

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s4ha9d4c&w=shktdj6c&n=shjdqtc7&e=shq75dc8]399|300|Here, cash the spade, discard heart jack. Both throw hearts. Cash the ♥A, drops the king and East can afford to falsecard with the Queen because he lacks the ten. Should West drop the King and East the Queen, I would still play East for three hearts instead of two, because West would not have been in position to falsecard the ♥K without seeing the Queen (some might). So you should have complete count on West. [/hv]

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s4ha9d4c&w=shkt4d6c&n=shjdqtc7&e=shq7djc8]399|300|This is the alternative ending, where diamonds are splitting. The spade gets hearts from both of them. Then the ♥A probably doesn't drop the King but will drop the Queen. Now you have to guess. Did East have ♥KQx to start, or ♥Qx. (or ♥Kx). The math comparing East with Hx in hearts versus HHx has Hx much greater chance than HHx. (there are 12 Hx combinations versus only 6 HHx combinations). Of course, East with the Qxx can only drop the queen if he has the queen, see ending above). [/hv]

 

What this means, on the information you gave us -- and presumably playing the cards the way you did or close to what you did, the decision point will have an additional clue. What happens on the ♥A (trick 11). If East drops an honor but west does not, I will play for diamonds to be 3-3. If West drops the King and East drops the Queen (but the ten has not shown up), or if West drops an honor and East does not, I will finesse West for the diamond Jack. But this line is based on the assumption someone with three small diamonds and four clbus to the T98x or Four diamonds to the Jack and four clubs to the T98x would lead the "safe" club.

 

I haven't thought about rather I would play the hand this way from scratch since you told us so much about what they hold before I consider the line. So I just expressed what I would do at the point you threw us into the hand.

[PhilKing]

Who on Earth leads a diamond on this auction when a spade is know to be safe. And why did we play on clubs?

[Free]

And why did we play on clubs?

To gain more information before tackling the key suit ;)

[c_corgi]

To gain more information before tackling the key suit ;)

 

But it gives up on West having 1624 shape with one heart honour, which seems a likely holding.

[johnu]

I would win the ♦A at trick 1, spade to the king, and spade to hand. Seeing the 4-1 split,

 

I'll cash 3 rounds of diamonds. If the diamonds are 3-3, or the jack was doubleton, claim,

else cross with a spade, and then on the 4th round of spades, discard a heart, and on the 5th round of spades:

 

If west has jack 4th of diamonds, play for a diamond-club squeeze so discard the last heart from dummy, and cash the ♥A to squeeze west.

 

If east guards diamonds, and west guards clubs, you'll have to guess if west has unguarded clubs. If west keeps 4 clubs and a heart, discard a club, play 3 rounds of clubs, squeezing east in diamonds and hearts. If west only keeps 3 clubs, discard the ♦10 and win the ace of hearts and 4 clubs.

[gszes]

trick 1 win dia in hand (A or K)

trick 2 spade to dummy

trick 3 heart J to ace whether covered or not

trick 4 win dia in hand

trick 5 dia to Q if suit is 33 hand is over

trick 6 spade to hand

trick 7 spade

trick 8 spade (pitch heart)

trick 9 spade (pitch dia if lho still has it)

last 4 tricks are ours if either opp began with KQT hearts and 4+ clubs

OR If LHO began with 4+ clubs and the remaining diamond. An additional

tiny extra chance is when we lead the heart J it is covered and it left

only one opp in position to cover hearts and clubs.

 

It just seems way to arbitrary to consider a LOP where LHO lead the dia

7 from J7xx and while it may work on this hand in the long run it seems

better to consider the opps as making a less dangerous opening lead.

[c_corgi]

...

last 4 tricks are ours if either opp began with KQT hearts and 4+ clubs

OR If LHO began with 4+ clubs and the remaining diamond. An additional

tiny extra chance is when we lead the heart J it is covered and it left

only one opp in position to cover hearts and clubs.

...

 

LHO doubled 2H and didn't lead a heart, so it seems unlikely that either opp began with KQ hearts or that LHO has length in both minors. I'm basically with johnu, although I cash 4 spades first, then 2 more diamonds ending in hand for the 5th spade.