Psychological decision

[whereagles]

Imps vs field, solid opponents. NV vs V you hold:

 

♠ A87x

♥ Kxx

♦ Txx

♣ A8x

 

Bidding goes

 

Pard RHO you LHO

1NT..dbl...pass.pass

rdbl..pass..pass..2♥

dbl...pass..pass..2♠

pass.pass..??

 

1NT is 9-11.

RHO's double is 13+.

Your 1st pass forces redouble (weak 44 adjacent or strong).

Pard's redouble usually shows no 5-card suit (he might have thought of bidding it if he had one).

Your 2nd pass shows the strong hand, penalty oriented.

Pard's double is for penalties.

 

You can now double 2♠ for penalties. This is board 3 of a 10 board match, and in board 1 you have had a good result and know it. Opps are under pressure. Do you put on even more pressure and double or opt for a quiet pass?

[Free]

pass

[pclayton]

At any other form of scoring, I'd double in a heartbeat.

 

Pard should have 4 real good hearts for the double and it sounds like a max too. At MPs, I'm shooting for +200 and at IMPs, pard doesn't rate to make a shaky double of 2♥.

 

What I honestly think has happened is that the subsequent 2♥ call was actually a transfer (I play DONT in this situation myself). Otherwise, why unilaterally pull 2♥? And I've never heard of a psyche in this situation myself.

 

At BAM, its different. I'm guessing your opponents arent opening your pard's hand. Therefore, its probably starting Pass - (1x) - Pass - (1♥) - Pass. They will probably settle in 1N I'm guessing. Seemingly the only reason for making the double is that both contracts are -1 and we are trying to turn a tie into a win. If 1NT is +90 and 2♠ is -110, then we are losing anyway. If 1NT is +90 and we are +100 in 2♠ or then we are winning. About the only LOSING scenario for the double is if 1NT is -120 and 2S is +110; then we've turned a win into a loss with the -670. The last case seems rather unlikely, don't you think?

 

Seems right to dbl albeit for different reasons.

[whereagles]

There is nothing wrong with the bidding: 2♥ was natural, as well as 2♠. No mix-ups :rolleyes:

[flytoox]

I would dbl, though 2h bidder may not really have hearts i suspect.

 

By the way, I suggest you give no details about board 1 and 2. I think most of the time discussion should be limited to the board itself. I think the thinking of state-of-the-match etc, are overstated.

[whereagles]

Flytoox: while it is true that technical merit usually overrides state-of-the-match considerations, the latter can be a guideline when one is faced with close decisions.

 

This particular case is borderline between pass and double, and the point is to see whether other people use psychological factors to help deciding, or rely solely on technical arguments. You are, of course, free to evaluate the situation based only on the later :rolleyes:

 

By the way, I can assure you the 2H bidder HAS hearts and everybody around the table knows it :unsure:

[helium]

I DBL offcourse:)

 

 

 

 

kenneth

[inquiry]

From a psychological prespective, I would probably not double. We got them on board one, and they are likley to go down one here (they surely have a seven card spade fit or EAST would pull). This hand rates to be a nothing hand at the other table. RHO will open 1 something (maybe 1NT, maybe 1 minor and rebid 1NT). The auction will die in 1NT (p-1m-p-1h-p-1nt-all pass) or in 2M (p-1n-p-2c-p-2d-p-2h-p-Pass/2s).

 

Against 1NT, your opening lead would have been a spade. That can not be a good lead for your side given the bidding at t his table. So you may have already won small on the board. The question is do you want to risk giving back a lot of imps for 2Sx making (-670) compaired ot the likely result of 2S -1 for +100. I think the opponents would get a huge boost if your double lets them back in the game. But 2S down one, still leaves you comfortable in the lead.

 

Having said that, I generally would play bridge here. At matchpoint or BAM, I dobule as I expect them to go down most of the time, and I can imagine down two or more on some hand. At imps, I would pass, as they might also make and I don't relish doubling them into game For instance, partner could have S-Jx H-AQ98 D-KJx C-xxx and we are going to get 1S, 1H, 0D. 1C and they may make two overtricks (getting 3S, 2H ruffs if you pull trumps, and if not, scoring 4D, 3S, and 2C on some random hands for them with bidder having 5H and 4S.

 

No, I guess all in all, at imps, I do what I always do when I think I am mostly likely going to set them one. I pass rather than risk doubling them into game... Now if I took a big hit on board one, I would go for down two here with a doulbe in a short match. :-)

 

Ben

[Guest Jlall]

i am a conservative Xer and i cant see NOT doubling here. We have them. We have half the deck, at least 6 spades, and their second suit under control.

[Fluffy]

I feel biased by the fact that these is a problem, its an automatic double to me, so I would double.

[inquiry]

I feel biased by the fact that these is a problem, its an automatic double to me, so I would double.

Let's see, is there such a thing as an automatic double? They maybe missing their 8 card diamond or 8 card club fit (if 2S bidder is 4531 or 4513). They can easily make overtricks if the hands are something like...

 

[hv=n=sjxhaqtxdkjxcxxxx&w=st965hjxxxxdxxxcq&e=skq4hxdaqxxckjtxx&s=sa87xhkxxdtxxca8x]399|300|[/hv]

 

Of course, one could come up with lots of hands where 2♠ is toasted.. and in fact, again, at matchpoints I would double. But 2♠ undoubled is surely not going to be horrible for you and the you really rate to get this only about one trick most of the time, so +100 versus +200 is hardly something to get overly excited about. But -670 or -870 versus -110 or -140 would be a disaster. Look at an imp table...

 

+100 versus +200 cost you 3 imps

-670 verus -110 cost you 11 imps

-870 versus -140 cost you 12 imps.

 

So the odds you are laying down are clear.. let's call if it makes -11 imps, if it goes down, lose 3 imps (versus what you could get (it could be down two or make an over trick, the scores would be 12 versus 7 imps then)...

 

If you double 10 time on this auction with this hand. and your are right 10 times, you average +3imps. If you are right 8 out of ten times, you average winning 0.2 imps. And if you are right only 7 times out of 10, your average for your double is actually -1.2 imps. Doing this kind of math (and making certain assumptions about just make or down only one), suggest that for the double to break even you have to be right 78.86% of the time. I would gladly take these odds at matchpoints, as you pick up mp way more than 50% of the time, but at imps? Am I so certain that we "got them". I am not nearly 80% sure, so I stick with a wimpy imp pass... especially since we are ahead after board 1.

[whereagles]

Thx all. Hands were

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sjxxhqj8xdkqxcjxx&w=st9xxhat9xdj9xcxx&e=skqhxxdaxxxckqtxx&s=sa87xhkxxdtxxca9x]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

2♠ was doubled. East escaped into 2NT for the minors and West gave preference in 3♦. Due to the lucky layout and after two misdefences, this was home.