Can you get higher?

[rhm]

 

As to the hands on which the invitation was accepted, that tells us nothing we did not already know about most top players.

The point is not that this comes as a surprise, rather that many West will accept on almost any excuse and then 4♥ will not stand much of a chance.

The issue is how often will 3♥ gain with the East hand and given opponents silence, because 4♥ will make compared to trading a plus into a minus score, irrespective of whether you go down in 4♥ or 3♥.

Given the wide range of hands West can hold I am still not convinced that the tradeoff is positive with this East hand.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[mikl_plkcc]

West has underestimated his strength. It seems like 17+ with 3 As, a supported K and also a singleton.

 

Base HCPs: 16

Good points:

- 3 As

- K supported with A

- no Qs

- values in the majors

- singleton

Bad point:

- unsupported J (but not really bad since it is in a 5-card suit)

[gwnn]

I think there is a good indication that there are several styles in the pairs in PhilKing's post. For example, Wolff raised directly to 4H on a nice but not amazing 9 count (hand 8) and Vincent raised 3H to 4H on a good 12 count (AQJT9 is definitely great but 5422 is not so great). I would guess Wolff's partner would not accept 3H on 'any excuse,' and that was the style I was talking about (aggressive 3H/4H raises by responder, cautious acceptance by opener).

[BillPatch]

Has your sim accounted for the opponent's silence?

I set up the sim specifying that Jack would chose from the subset specifying the modified forcing NT responders hand as South and randomly generated hands in the other seats that matched the bidding from the opening bid to responder's rebid. To prune this new subset, 1. I let Jack actually bid the hands to the point of responder's rebid, and 2. verified that the hand prior to the opener satisfied my idea of a first seat pass. (Jack set for BWS fairly new version in both directions. Let Jack bid to decision point. Threw out hands that Jack did not bid correctly to this point. Input First test variable, letting Jack finish bidding for the other three hands. Frequently jack would put in a takeout double after the false preference. Once when the takeout was advanced to 4♦ I made a penalty double good for +800. When advancer made a penalty pass in ♠ or tried 3♣ I showed my true preference. Opener several times took this to game in ♥. Jack did not chose to intervene after responder's test second round pass, or the test second round 3♥ rebid. After the bidding was over I let Jack make lead, then found the double dummy result from there, (after checking that the W hand had an actual dealer pass.)

[gwnn]

Bad point:

- unsupported J (but not really bad since it is in a 5-card suit)

-no spots

-bad primary suit

(therefore:)

-3NT (the game we want to play without a major suit fit) unlikely to make without a source of tricks from partner.

[BillPatch]

Executive summary: Ran third sample of 20 on 3 options for responder's rebids. Pass now clearly leads other choices in Bayesian probability. False preference barely clings to second place. It occurs to me that it might improve results for the false pref if we manually adopt the Lawrence treatment of showing 16-17 hcp in rebidding 2 NT by opener after responder's preference. (Did make the adjustment several times in first trial.)

 

Trial III In this sample of 20 Pass beat 3 ♥ rebid by 45 imps (2.25 imps per board), Pass beat 2♠ false pref by 52 (2.6/bd),

 

Combining 3 trials: Pass leads 3♥ by 53 imps over 40 boards(1.325 per board). Pass leads 2♠ by 60 imps over 60 bds (1/bd).

[PhilKing]

Because it is not really feasible to set up a sim that deals adequately with competition, I generated 64 hands on Playbridge where partner's hand is consistent with the auction but the opponent's hands are random. Board that don't conform are then ignored. Opener was set at 12+-17. I did a separate test to verify that 11 was "impossible" given the auction so far:

 

[Deal 1 "N:A7532.K943.Q9.K4 Q964.AQ.K5.AQT76 KT.JT752.8762.J9 J8.86.AJT43.8532"]

[Deal 2"E:93.K43.J53.KT854 KT.JT752.8762.J9 J742.Q.AKQT94.Q2 AQ865.A986..A763"]

[Deal 3"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 82.KQ8.JT3.AT543 AJ9543.A963.5.K2 Q76.4.AKQ94.Q876"]

[Deal 4"W:Q862.A64.KJ53.A5 AJ973.KQ93.A.K83 54.8.QT94.QT7642 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 5"N:AQ864.A984.AK4.3 97.KQ.JT53.K8642 KT.JT752.8762.J9 J532.63.Q9.AQT75"]

[Deal 6"E:J83.Q8.AT543.K87 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q54.K6.KJ9.QT543 A9762.A943.Q.A62"]

[Deal 7"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 5.Q94.AQ4.KQ8765 J9732.AK863.K.A4 AQ864..JT953.T32"]

[Deal 8"W:A63.8.AKJT5.7632 QJ842.AKQ94.Q.Q4 975.63.943.AKT85 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 9"N:Q9542.AK64.Q.Q53 J83.8.AKT94.K872 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A76.Q93.J53.AT64"]

[Deal 10"E:QJ7.Q84.AQJ4.A54 KT.JT752.8762.J9 93.3.T53.KQT8763 A86542.AK96.K9.2"]

[Deal 11"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q6542.K6.954.KT8 AJ987.Q984.KJ.Q7 3.A3.AQT3.A65432"]

[Deal 12"W:93.A3.95.QT76542 A8754.K984.AQT.K QJ62.Q6.KJ43.A83 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 13"N:AJ964.K864.A3.86 832.Q3.KQ95.AK73 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q75.A9.JT4.QT542"]

[Deal 14"E:765.K64.AT.QT654 KT.JT752.8762.J9 982.Q.KJ9543.K82 AQJ43.A983.Q.A73"]

[Deal 15"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 94.A8.AQT95.AQ64 AQ87652.KQ63.J.T J3.94.K43.K87532"]

[Deal 16"W:A9.K93.94.QT8654 Q6532.A864.KT.K3 J874.Q.AQJ53.A72 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 17"N:Q9764.AQ84.A3.A7 J532.K63.K94.QT3 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A8.9.QJT5.K86542"]

[Deal 18"E:65.AQ64.5.AQ8765 KT.JT752.8762.J9 QJ73..AKJ943.T42 A9842.K983.QT.K3"]

[Deal 19"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 9653.Q86.A4.KQT2 AJ842.AK93.93.A6 Q7.4.KQJT5.87543"]

[Deal 20"W:543.AK.KJ3.AT653 AQJ97.Q9843..K84 862.6.AQT954.Q72 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 21"N:AQ8764.AQ8643..A J952.K9.KJT54.T3 KT.JT752.8762.J9 3..AQ93.KQ876542"]

[Deal 22"E:8642.Q.Q94.86542 KT.JT752.8762.J9 75.AK9.AKT5.KQ73 AQJ93.8643.J3.AT"]

[Deal 23"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 AJ94.6.AJT54.KQ5 Q8732.AKQ4.Q9.T6 65.983.K3.A87432"]

[Deal 24"W:9643.Q96.Q93.A62 AQJ75.AK83.54.87 82.4.AKJT.KQT543 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 25"N:AQJ653.Q943.Q.K8 972.AK6.KJ54.Q63 KT.JT752.8762.J9 84.8.AT93.AT7542"]

[Deal 26"E:93.K84.AJT5.KT72 KT.JT752.8762.J9 7642.3.KQ93.A543 AQJ85.AQ96.4.Q86"]

[Deal 27"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 63.K96.AKQJ9.KT3 A8754.AQ43.54.A4 QJ92.8.T3.Q87652"]

[Deal 28"W:QJ2.K.KQ53.AK632 A9875.A643.A4.54 643.Q98.JT9.QT87 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 29"N:A8754.AKQ8.T.A63 QJ6.93.AKQJ9.874 KT.JT752.8762.J9 932.64.543.KQT52"]

[Deal 30"E:986.K43.95.A8532 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A72..AKQJT.QT764 QJ543.AQ986.43.K"]

[Deal 31"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q874.A643.T.A764 A9532.KQ98.4.KT3 J6..AKQJ953.Q852"]

[Deal 32"W:964.Q84.KJ94.T82 QJ532.A963.A.Q75 A87.K.QT53.AK643 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 33"N:AQ6542.AK43.9.Q8 J83.Q.KJ543.AT76 KT.JT752.8762.J9 97.986.AQT.K5432"]

[Deal 34"E:J872.63.J9.K6543 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q6.K4.AKQT3.AT82 A9543.AQ98.54.Q7"]

[Deal 35"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 94.83.QT54.87654 AQ753.KQ64.3.QT3 J862.A9.AKJ9.AK2"]

[Deal 36"W:AJ962.A6.KJT.T76 Q8543.KQ83.A94.K 7.94.Q53.AQ85432 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 37"N:A7643.K986..AK43 9852.4.AKQ9.Q876 KT.JT752.8762.J9 QJ.AQ3.JT543.T52"]

[Deal 38"E:A86.643.QJ5.QT65 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q93.K.T943.AK432 J7542.AQ98.AK.87"]

[Deal 39"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 753.4.KQ.AKT8542 AJ864.AK96.AT3.3 Q92.Q83.J954.Q76"]

[Deal 40"W:43..KT43.AKQ6542 AJ962.A963.A9.73 Q875.KQ84.QJ5.T8 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 41"N:A9762.KQ643.K4.3 J4.A8.AT95.Q8764 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q853.9.QJ3.AKT52"]

[Deal 42"E:A754.98.AT95.532 KT.JT752.8762.J9 98.K4.K3.AKQT864 QJ632.AQ63.QJ4.7"]

[Deal 43"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 A4.K.AJ543.A8432 QJ8732.AQ63.Q.KQ 965.984.KT9.T765"]

[Deal 44"W:32.AK.Q953.A7543 AQJ985.8643.AT.K 764.Q9.KJ4.QT862 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 45"N:QJ986.AKQ9.J.QT3 2.643.AK9543.K62 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A7543.8.QT.A8754"]

[Deal 46"E:QJ52.K.T9.AT8765 KT.JT752.8762.J9 83.94.AQJ543.K43 A9764.AQ863.K.Q2"]

[Deal 47"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 A954.Q3.AQ9.T643 QJ7632.AK86.T.KQ 8.94.KJ543.A8752"]

[Deal 48"W:64.AQ.K3.KQT8752 AQJ53.8643.AJ9.3 9872.K9.QT54.A64 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 49"N:AJ753.AQ864.T5.Q .93.K943.KT87653 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q98642.K.AQJ.A42"]

[Deal 50"E:864.K8.QT3.87532 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A32.A9.AKJ954.Q6 QJ975.Q643..AKT4"]

[Deal 51"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 53.983.K4.AQT652 A8764.AQ64.AQT.4 QJ92.K.J953.K873"]

[Deal 52"W:874.6.KQ4.QT8632 QJ9532.KQ43.A3.K A6.A98.JT95.A754 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 53"N:A9865.K863..AK87 742.A.AKJT953.T4 KT.JT752.8762.J9 QJ3.Q94.Q4.Q6532"]

[Deal 54"E:92.64.AQ3.KQT854 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A85.K9.KJT9.7632 QJ7643.AQ83.54.A"]

[Deal 55"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 QJ76.83.QT.AK653 A9853.AQ96.AJ.T4 42.K4.K9543.Q872"]

[Deal 56"W:972.A84.QJ3.T852 QJ865.KQ963.A4.A A43..KT95.KQ7643 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 57"N:J9875.AK96.A5.Q2 A42.Q84.3.KT6543 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q63.3.KQJT94.A87"]

[Deal 58"E:95.9.AQJ953.AKQ3 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A742.Q4.T.T87642 QJ863.AK863.K4.5"]

[Deal 59"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 84.3.KQ3.AQ87542 AQ976.AQ86.J94.6 J532.K94.AT5.KT3"]

[Deal 60"W:97.K.QJ43.AT8742 AJ642.9864.K9.KQ Q853.AQ3.AT5.653 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

[Deal 61"N:86543.AKQ84.K.65 Q.93.JT954.T8432 KT.JT752.8762.J9 AJ972.6.AQ3.AKQ7"]

[Deal 62"E:J9.Q.AJ54.KQT864 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q652.94.KQ93.753 A8743.AK863.T.A2"]

[Deal 63"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 72.Q3.QT95.K8762 AJ984.AK94.J4.T3 Q653.86.AK3.AQ54"]

[Deal 64"W:873.AQ8.AJT5.K73 AQ542.K963.94.A4 J96.4.KQ3.QT8652 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]

 

Below are the boards where the opponent's very likely pass throughout, with the result from raising on the right. False preference would not get the job done on 6 and 47.Passing is hopeless. Raising led to a minus score twice but won a bushel of imps. The Bayesian inference that partner was almost certainly suitable proved to be strong.

 

[Deal 5"N:AQ864.A984.AK4.3 97.KQ.JT53.K8642 KT.JT752.8762.J9 J532.63.Q9.AQT75"]4h+1

[Deal 6"E:J83.Q8.AT543.K87 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q54.K6.KJ9.QT543 A9762.A943.Q.A62"]4h

[Deal 13"N:AJ964.K864.A3.86 832.Q3.KQ95.AK73 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q75.A9.JT4.QT542"]3h

[Deal 19"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 9653.Q86.A4.KQT2 AJ842.AK93.93.A6 Q7.4.KQJT5.87543"]4h+1

[Deal 26"E:93.K84.AJT5.KT72 KT.JT752.8762.J9 7642.3.KQ93.A543 AQJ85.AQ96.4.Q86"]4h-1

[Deal 33"N:AQ6542.AK43.9.Q8 J83.Q.KJ543.AT76 KT.JT752.8762.J9 97.986.AQT.K5432"]4h

[Deal 38"E:A86.643.QJ5.QT65 KT.JT752.8762.J9 Q93.K.T943.AK432 J7542.AQ98.AK.87"]4h

[Deal 47"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 A954.Q3.AQ9.T643 QJ7632.AK86.T.KQ 8.94.KJ543.A8752"]4h-1

 

Below are the boards where competition was reasonably likely, but not certain. Make of them what you will.

 

[Deal 9"N:Q9542.AK64.Q.Q53 J83.8.AKT94.K872 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A76.Q93.J53.AT64"]3h-1

[Deal 14"E:765.K64.AT.QT654 KT.JT752.8762.J9 982.Q.KJ9543.K82 AQJ43.A983.Q.A73"]4h

[Deal 16"W:A9.K93.94.QT8654 Q6532.A864.KT.K3 J874.Q.AQJ53.A72 KT.JT752.8762.J9"]3h-2

[Deal 17"N:Q9764.AQ84.A3.A7 J532.K63.K94.QT3 KT.JT752.8762.J9 A8.9.QJT5.K86542"]4h-1

[Deal 25"N:AQJ653.Q943.Q.K8 972.AK6.KJ54.Q63 KT.JT752.8762.J9 84.8.AT93.AT7542"]4h-1

[Deal 29"N:A8754.AKQ8.T.A63 QJ6.93.AKQJ9.874 KT.JT752.8762.J9 932.64.543.KQT52"]4h+2

[Deal 37"N:A7643.K986..AK43 9852.4.AKQ9.Q876 KT.JT752.8762.J9 QJ.AQ3.JT543.T52"]4h

[Deal 63"S:KT.JT752.8762.J9 72.Q3.QT95.K8762 AJ984.AK94.J4.T3 Q653.86.AK3.AQ54"]3h

[gnasher]

Next time, can you generate 256 boards and then take every fourth one of those?

[PhilKing]

Next time, can you generate 256 boards and then take every fourth one of those?

 

It's irritating to have to start each board from a different polarity, but it's the best I could do. 64 boards is the max for one pbn file on their site. Oh bother! Just noticed they have a "rotate hand with dealer position" feature now.

 

Feel free to do a larger manual sim though ...