Another suit combination

[xx1943]

[hv=n=sq102&w=s&e=s&s=sa9765]399|300|Other things being equal, enough transportation, what is the rite line line to play this combination?[/hv]

 

Hi Billies,

 

Other things being equal (No hints from biddding, earlier play, transportation ....) what is the rite line to play this combination? What are the exact odds to succeed with????????? :ph34r: .

 

Please work it out en detail:

 

What are the possible lines of play?

 

Which line succeeds with which distribution?

 

To minimize the math: KJ8xx maybe distributed in 24 different ways. :P

You may look up the percentages here.

 

 

I'm looking forward your answers.

 

Regards

 

Al

[xx1943]

Hi all,

 

Oops no answers. Did I something wrong in my question.

 

I thought this hand a good experience for beginners and intermediates how to chose the best line.

But all were invited to answer.

 

If it is due to the exact probabilities, forget it, just tell me, how do you play this suit?

 

(1) A and (if nothing happens) small to the 10

(2) A and (if nothing happens) small to the Q

(3) Lead the Q and finesse, if the finesse loses, finesse the 10.

(4) Lead the Q and A, if the finesse loses.

(5) Lead the 10 and finesse, if the finesse loses, finesse the Q.

(6) Lead the 10 and A, if the finesse loses.

(7) Small against 10 and finesse Q later

(8) Small against 10 and A later

(7) Small against Q and finesse 10 later

(8) Small against Q and A later

(9) Did I miss a line?????????

 

looking forward your answers

 

Al

[xx1943]

I'm astonished. :) :o :o

 

Why are there no replies to this "simple" combination?

 

Did I something wrong?

 

Is the question too simple or too difficult?

 

 

Terence Reese, Albert Dormer give in their "The Complete Book of Bridge"

a very similar situation.

 

[hv=n=sq1063&w=s&e=s&s=sa954]399|300|[/hv]

They write:

"This is a tricky situation because declarer has to take into account what WEST might do if he held such and such.

Probably the best line is to lead low from the closed hand and put in the 10 if there is no reaction. If this loses to the Jack, the 9 should be finessed on the next round."

 

Imo it is far better to play the A first and then low against the 10. This line has a chance of 67,3%.

Losing only against EAST having KJxxx(2%), KJxx(8,5%), KJx(10,1%), Jx(10,1%) and void(2%).

 

Against the Reese/Dormer recommended line has only 61,6% success.

 

Can anyone tell me, where I'm wrong.

 

Many thanks.

Regards

 

Al

[jillybean]

I'm astonished. :o  :o  :o

 

Why are there no replies to this "simple" combination?

 

Did I something wrong?

 

Is the question too simple or too difficult?

 

Hi,

For me, I have had my dose of combinations with the earlier thread, (&still need to work on those).

 

Perhaps you could poll the B/I readers and start a new topic? :)

 

jillybean2

 

maybe people do like this but dont want to reply in the forum?

[luke warm]

first of all, i'm not sure what 'right line' means... right for what, to take 2 tricks, 3 tricks, 4 tricks? maximum tricks?

[bearmum]

I'm astonished. :o  :o  :o

 

Why are there no replies to this "simple" combination?

 

Did I something wrong?

 

Is the question too simple or too difficult?

 

 

Terence Reese, Albert Dormer give in their "The Complete Book of Bridge"

a very similar situation.

 

Q1063 [space] [space] A954

They write:

"This is a tricky situation because declarer has to take into account what WEST might do if he held such and such.

Probably the best line is to lead low from the closed hand and put in the 10 if there is no reaction. If this loses to the Jack, the 9 should be finessed on the next round."

 

Imo it is far better to play the A first and then low against the 10. This line has a chance of 67,3%.

Losing only against EAST having KJxxx(2%), KJxx(8,5%), KJx(10,1%), Jx(10,1%) and void(2%).

 

Against the Reese/Dormer recommended line has only 61,6% success.

 

Can anyone tell me, where I'm wrong.

 

Many thanks.

Regards

 

Al

Well - I can give you some reasons as to NO replies B) and I believe that it's neither too simple or too difficult

 

 

1 There are normally SOME clues from the bidding

2. Possible clues from previous tricks

3. How many tricks do you have to make from this combination?

4. Most of us don't work out the EXACT % for each possiblilty (or one hand would take ME more than the allowable time to play it :)

[Stephen Tu]

For the first combo, 3-5 with the spots, running the Q then running the T is best.

 

For the second combo:

 

"This is a tricky situation because declarer has to take into account what WEST might do if he held such and such.

Probably the best line is to lead low from the closed hand and put in the 10 if there is no reaction. If this loses to the Jack, the 9 should be finessed on the next round."

 

Imo it is far better to play the A first and then low against the 10. This line has a chance of 67,3%.

Losing only against EAST having KJxxx(2%), KJxx(8,5%), KJx(10,1%), Jx(10,1%) and void(2%).

 

Against the Reese/Dormer recommended line has only 61,6% success.

 

Actually, for 3 tricks both these lines are the same against perfect defenders.

(I hope Reese really meant to run the Q 2nd round, not low to the 9, which is

worse).

 

Success of 69.22% for both. (You can actually pick up 3 tricks with void in east).

The Reese line only loses to East having KJ87(x) (if he has kj82 or kj72 you have the spots to pick it up.), stiff K, Jx, Jxx, stiff J. If you add them all up it comes out even.

 

However, the Reese line has some bonus factors in its favor since West may go up incorrectly from Kx, or break tempo before ducking.