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The Road to the 2014 World Cup


jjbrr

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As to passion, baseball has nothing on soccer. Many fans of British teams will attend every road game, I notice in the NFL and I guess baseball is similar, there are very few fans of the visiting team in the stadium, this is a large part of why the atmosphere is different.

While I agree about the passion, at least part of the discrepancy in road attendance is due to distance. All of England is smaller than (say) Illinois by itself. So in baseball, even a routine divisional road game such as (say) Cleveland vs. Kansas City, is much further than any EPL contest, and the distances obviously get larger than that.

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While I agree about the passion, at least part of the discrepancy in road attendance is due to distance. All of England is smaller than (say) Illinois by itself. So in baseball, even a routine divisional road game such as (say) Cleveland vs. Kansas City, is further than any EPL contest, and the distances get much larger than that.

 

Yes but they go in coaches rather than flying, and this occurs at all levels, so 360 miles each way, 8 hours or even more on a coach to see a 4th tier game and a couple of hundred will go on a Saturday. In the premiership, thousands will make that sort of journey, even on a midweek evening when they have to travel by car or coach as there are no trains back after the match.

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Yes but they go in coaches rather than flying, and this occurs at all levels, so 360 miles each way, 8 hours or even more on a coach to see a 4th tier game and a couple of hundred will go on a Saturday. In the premiership, thousands will make that sort of journey, even on a midweek evening when they have to travel by car or coach as there are no trains back after the match.

Yeah, I know. Over here, I can barely imagine minor league fans traveling to a road game at all. No doubt, soccer fans are more committed/passionate/obsessed, and it's not close.

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Based on the Betfair market, Brazil/Germany/Spain to win = 49%

 

oK thanks so my take as an outsider for Germany being the best team the team with the most talent and Brazil winning based on passion and home field advantage was not that far off.

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I stand by my comments that passion will be most important the next few weeks but in general the sport has become rotten at its basic core in terms of payoffs and fixed games, rotten at the very top which is spreading to its core players and leaders.

 

I understand that betting, gambling is core to the sport as betting is core in USA football.

 

I understand that injury is becoming rampant at the top of worldwide football as it is in American football.

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Based on the Betfair market, Brazil/Germany/Spain to win = 49%

 

I am not experienced in these things. but suppose this counting bases on the addition of chances of all 21 remaining teams.

 

If we skip the additon of teams which WC win is only theoritically possible I think , that would bring more than 49% for Germany, Brazil and Spain.

 

Is it true, or I am wrong with that logic here?

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This weekend I had a reunion with several friends from college. At one point we got to discussing this world cup. After some debate, two others made a wager against me. I have Brazil, Spain, and Germany, and they have the rest of the field. Whoever has the champion, wins the bet. This seemed favorable for me, but they were quite happy with the terms, so maybe my understanding is not so good as I thought.

 

Which side of this bet would you take?

 

I'd take your side (and wish I could get some of that action)

 

FWIW, I am expecting Brazil to win, however, I am rooting for Spain or Argentina because I think that they're fun to watch

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Can I predict a possible (albeit unlikely) scenario?

 

The draw is very favourable to the winners of Group G.

1. The winner plays Runners-Up from Group H (Belgium, Russia, S Korea, Algeria) in the Round of 16. It could easily be Russia.

2. The winner of (1.) will potentially face France, Nigeria or Switzerland in the Quarter Finals. Any of these teams could lose on their day.

 

I bet USA to win their group and then go on to defeat the runner-up from Group H. It'll be quite something to see USA play France in the QF!

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I am not experienced in these things. but suppose this counting bases on the addition of chances of all 21 remaining teams.

 

If we skip the additon of teams which WC win is only theoritically possible I think , that would bring more than 49% for Germany, Brazil and Spain.

 

Is it true, or I am wrong with that logic here?

 

Ten teams with a "theoretical" 0.5% chance still have a total chance to win of 5%.

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And where do you draw the line between theoretical odds and real ones? 0.5% is too little, how about 1%? 5%? Why not neglect all odds except Brazil's? That way it is 100%. Neglecting odds is a mistake and the more odds you neglect the larger the mistake you are making.
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Fluffy, are you saying that the Swedish tv photoshopped the video?

 

No, "Diario As" made a photoshop on a picture in a match from Real Madrid. I don't have access to any swedish news/newspapers.

 

 

I would bet Brazil/Spain/Germany for sure, I think it is only 49% because there is a pretty high chance Spain meets Brazil right after groups.

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Suppose Trinidad & Tobago has a 0.000001 chance of winning. Can you really get odds 1 mio on betfair? I can imagine bookies are adverse against that sort of risks. Maybe it depends how many people put bets on T&T

FWIW English premier league matches are priced correctly in the sense that a punter who systematically backs underdogs will break even. Probably this is also true for world cup but maybe not quite.

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No, "Diario As" made a photoshop on a picture in a match from Real Madrid. I don't have access to any swedish news/newspapers.

 

 

I would bet Brazil/Spain/Germany for sure, I think it is only 49% because there is a pretty high chance Spain meets Brazil right after groups.

I know you were talking about As and ranting against Real Madrid, but what does it have to do with the Norway game? That was a real penalty but somehow the angle that proved it got lost during the match. So I guess you are just using any opportunity to rant against Real, next time I guess you will say, in a thread called 'Penalty or takeout?' 'I don't know but Real Madrid always get free penalties.'

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I hope I put myself on brazil on the vague basis of passion and home field advantage, based on internet

 

fwiw I read and hear that Germany has the most talent and the best team but that is only based on internet so....I expect many here to reject experts and go on testable evidence and not gossip as I do.

 

I am concerned that usa may finish 32 out of 32 and not score a single, yes a single goal in world cup.....can our boys beat that? you guys are so good, I mean can we score one goal, one silly goal in the group?

 

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perhaps in future usa can win if we can deploy machine made legs that scores goals?

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I know you were talking about As and ranting against Real Madrid, but what does it have to do with the Norway game? That was a real penalty but somehow the angle that proved it got lost during the match. So I guess you are just using any opportunity to rant against Real, next time I guess you will say, in a thread called 'Penalty or takeout?' 'I don't know but Real Madrid always get free penalties.'

 

I won't say that, but it is true that Portugal's chances on this eurocup depend on the ammount of penalties they get to shoot during the game...

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That was a real penalty but somehow the angle that proved it got lost during the match.

I think the problem was that the person in charge of the replays thought the penalty had been given for handball despite the referee's gestures making it clear it was a foul. They thus started the replays too late missing the key moment. Even the regular camera would have shown the jersey pull if the replay had shown the entire scene. The later angle was obviously bad for showing a handball and I assume that is the reason it was rejected for an in-game replay.

 

 

I am concerned that usa may finish 32 out of 32 and not score a single, yes a single goal in world cup.....can our boys beat that? you guys are so good, I mean can we score one goal, one silly goal in the group?

The USA has enough talent to beat Ghana and with some luck could get a result against Germany and/or Portugal. It is not going to be easy though and this is a very tough group for them. The USA team is absolutely not the worst there, not even the worst from the Americas. But yes, it can happen that they do not score a goal. It has happened before with some good teams.

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I wonder if Fifa takes a position on machine made legs or knees or hips for its players at the world cup as medicine advances?

 

The continuing melding of man and machine over the next few years.

I haven't come across something like that in soccer. (Perhaps I am blind.) I have heard that parents are trying to get their kids who are high school baseball pitchers to get preventive Tommy John surgery. Their hope is that this will add a few mph to their fastballs.

 

Rik

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