Bidding Poll

[MrAce]

[hv=pc=n&s=sqjt862hj73dq4caq&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=p3c]133|200[/hv]

 

IMP

[wank]

passing is pretty lame imo - we can still make game easily opposite a passed hand. the good news is we've got so much in clubs that partner's only options are likely to be pass and 4s.

[helene_t]

I think it's close. If we have game, partner will have enough to keep it open most of the time.

[Codo]

Partner will raise me with Kxx, Kxx,Jxxxx,xx, so the most effective way to win the board shall be a 2 ♠ bid to try to ban partner.

As we are not allowed to do so, I will pass. The biggest downside is not the 5 % of games we miss, but some missed opportunities for 4 ♣ -1 or 3 ♠ made...

[gnasher]

Hoping to make game with this seems very optimistic to me. Opposite Kxx Axxx xxxx xx we're probably going off in 3♠. With Kxx AKxx xxxx xx we can make 3♠, but unfortunately we'll be in game. There's also a fair chance that he'll have a singleton club, and regard it as a positive feature - Kxx Axxx xxxxx x, for example, will raise to game.

 

For game to be good, we have to give him a hand where one of our quacks is useful, or he has ♠Axx to give us a finesse, eg Axx AQ10x xxxx xx or Axx Axxx Kxxx xx. I think that's asking too much, so I'd rather try to beat 3♣.

 

Also, if partner has a prime maximum with short clubs, he may protect with a double anyway.

[mcphee]

The problem with bidding 3S is partner will likely raise with any excuse, and LHO may have already become pleased with this 3S contract and gives us the whip in game minus 5-800 is not improbable imo. The only great thing about this hand is we have 6 trumps. Plus, partner is still there.

[billw55]

Game seems remote. Even assuming the club hook, that only makes six tricks in my hand. Four tricks from a passed hand is too much to expect. So I pass. Also, if west has the goods they may land in too many clubs, for a plus score we probably can't get declaring.

[dake50]

I think it's close. If we have game, partner will have enough to keep it open most of the time.

-- helene_t

 

*** Exactly.

Why bid if partner is reasonably likely to reopen to get us to 3S (where I want to play).

Of course WEASEL gets this right always: hesitate-3S to play; fast-3S to invite.

[Phil]

Pass. Bidding seems pretty aggro to me with a passed partner and a pile of quacks. Give partner any two big cards, and I do not like our chances, unless there is something unique across. I know we might have a vulnerable game, but partner is still there and hopefully I haven't barred him.

 

If you bid what would you be more surprised at: -800 or +620?

 

If I were to step out, I'd bid 3N.

[aguahombre]

The only call I was considering was on the next round..wondering if I could get a spade lead if I doubled Lefty's 3NT.

[the hog]

Pass. Bidding is too optimistic with this. The bidders deserve a -800.

[ggwhiz]

Really low chances for game plus really high chances of pard raising 3♠.

 

Our partnership balances aggressively after which I can play in 3♠. If they don't I'm liking my chances of a plus score.

 

I agree with Phil in that 3nt would be a decent shot ONLY if pard reopens with double. 5 spades (6 on a good day) 2 clubs and whatever else they would have and we don't open as many 11 counts as others do.

[MrAce]

[hv=pc=n&s=sqjt862hj73dq4caq&w=s5haqt9854dkj95c8&n=sk9743h2dat82cj53&e=sahk6d763ckt97642&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=p3c]399|300[/hv]

 

This was the full deal. Of course it doesn't prove anything but bidders would win this hand. Pass would probably lead to either +50 -110/130 in 3♣, or +50 in 4♥

 

When i first posted this, results of poll surprised me, it was overwhelmingly in favour of 3♠ and i thought this was not such a clear decision. Now i see passers caught and passed bidders.

 

Fwiw, i bid 3♠ at the table, but definetely not advocating that it is correct to do so.

[benlessard]

Close but I slightly prefer passing. Game is far away and passing give me reasonnable chance for a plus.

[Cyberyeti]

Good defenders I think beat 3♣, but yes it's a freak to find partner with 5 spades.

[billw55]

Good defenders I think beat 3♣, but yes it's a freak to find partner with 5 spades.

.. and only one heart.

[Winstonm]

I would pass but mostly because of the bad shape and loser count.

[gszes]

risk vs reward---rho has around 7 our 12 means if the remaining power is split

we own over half the deck. The problem is thats the best we can hope for.

At this vulnerability going -200 might not seem like a big deal but what if p

raises and the ensuing mayhem becomes -3x vul opposite maybe even setting

3c. The odds of making game are too small and the risk is huge. P may still be

able to get us to game if they can balance with a nice ten count and short clubs,

[PhilKing]

What a turn-around - 3♠ was winning 8-1 in the poll when I first looked, but it has become a rout.

 

The way I see it, bidding 3♠ means you have not really thought it through, which is borne out by the kneejerk bids in this poll. :P

[cherdano]

The way I see it, bidding 3♠ means you have not really thought it through,

But I have 12 hcp!

[dake50]

MrAce

This was the full deal. Of course it doesn't prove anything but

bidders would win this hand. Pass would probably lead to

either +50 -110/130 in 3♣, or +50 in 4♥

When i first posted this, results of poll surprised me,

it was overwhelmingly in favour of 3♠ and i

thought this was not such a clear decision.

Now i see passers caught and passed bidders.

Fwiw, i bid 3♠ at the table, but definetely not

advocating that it is correct to do so.

 

*** Now reopeners, do you try 3S after (3C) P (P) ??

or (3C) P (3H) ??

I would every time, with that shape and a passed hand (can't get partner excited).

Hoping a couple H-ruffs + a couple tricks from partner.

And knowing nothing in 3C hand during the play.

[JLOGIC]

I would bid 3S. We might have a game. They do not just rip 3S very often when you have QJT8xx, obviously +620 is way more likely than -800. Sometimes they are compelled to bid 5C since they're w/r and think they have a good save, but they are not compelled to do so when both opps pass. And most importantly, a lot of these hands where partner has a spade fit and raises us to 4S and we go down, they are making 3C anyways. I have had many comparisons on boards like this being in 4S down vs a partscore making when they passed at the other table.

 

There is huge upside even when it's a down 1 hand in that you might just make it on a lucky layout or a misdefense or you might induce a save and you are investing literally nothing for that upside when 3C is just making. And of course theres the upside of catching a good fitter with pard and just being cold.

 

Honest question, how often do you guys double p 3C 3S ?. How often do you get doubled there? Even with AK9xx of spades often one won't double since you have 2 small diamonds and fear they might run. And with AK222 of spades, you only have 2 trump tricks. And with AK9x they might pick up your trumps. I mean sometimes they just have the powerhouse and the trumps and they get you, but to think that that is more common than catching partner with the right fitting hand to make a game is really counter to what I think actually happens. I guess more possible is getting smacked when partner raises by some aces and kings on your left, but even then people don't double enough in that spot esp with their partner being w/r.

[billw55]

I didn't think people were mainly worried about 3♠ getting doubled. Rather, that partner will raise to four with many hands that are unsuitable, and *that* will get doubled.

[aguahombre]

I didn't think people were mainly worried about 3♠ getting doubled. Rather, that partner will raise to four with many hands that are unsuitable, and *that* will get doubled.

And next time maybe partner not raising to four with suitable hands..for fear you hold this one. I think I refer to hope partner balances, and just take the good or the bad if she doesn't.

[gnasher]

I'm not very worried about being doubled at either 3♠ or 4♠. I just want +50 from 3♣ rather than -100 or -200 in 4♠. I know that means I'm betting that 3♣ will go down about three times more often than 4♠ will make, but think that's a pretty reasonable bet, given that partner didn't open and won't double 3♣ when it comes around to him.