Drop or finesse

[Hanoi5]

[hv=pc=n&s=sak8hq532daq95ck4&n=sj54hajdj4caj9753&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1dp2cp2hp3cp4np5hp6nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

♦3 is led to the 4, 10 and Q. On the ♣K East drops the 10. How do you continue clubs if East is a LOL and if s/he isn't, or is there even a difference?

[uhhlv]

Before start playing clubs a finesse wins against 3-2 and the queen onside and 4-1 with single queen => 40%

 

Dropping wins against single or double queen. => 33%

 

Am I right?

 

Without playing a false card, the 10 would be single or double from Q10. If the 10 is single, you have no chance to develop the clubs without loosing any trick.

If the 10 is from Q10, you should drop. So you should think about the propablity of a false card and that is very difficult.

Against middle range player I would drop. The difference between 40 and 33% is smaller than the probability of a false card. I think beginner plays false cards more often than middle range player. But again the difference between 40 and 33% is smaller than the probability of a false card in a right situation.

 

In my opinion a very good player might play the queen from Q10 and false card from 10x. So maybe finessing is better. But the false card from Q10 has 3 disadvantages:

1st) It is not clear from the bidding, that South has only 2 clubs. So a false card disclaims the chance that South finesse at the second club trick when they have a 9 card fit.

2nd) Weak player ignore false cards. A weak player wouldn t think about finessing to the 9 if you false card the queen.

3rd) Middle range player would finesse to the queen although you played the 10 from Q10 and doesn t find the play to the 9 every time.

 

So I would only finesse against a very good player if the good player knows that I am a good player.

 

So it is very easy: If a very good player doesn t know me, I can drop. And if he knows me, he knows that I m not a good player. So I can drop again.

 

ulgy horrible hopeless life version

[Free]

Do opps play any kind of Smith Echo?

[gnasher]

Do opps play any kind of Smith Echo?

Or suit-preference, or count...

[ArtK78]

Do opps play any kind of Smith Echo?

Really? Are any of them silly enough to employ Smith Echo in this situation?

[inquiry]

This situation appears as problem in Jeff Ruben's "Expert Bridge Simplified". The hand isn't identical I am sure because that one was for an overtrick as the slam was very solid (only issue on hand was clubs), but the contract and club holding is, with north holding AJ9xxx opposite Kx. He ask, on the play of the King, how do you play if RHO (behind the AJ9xxx) plays small, Ten, or Queen.

 

The point of the lesson if I remember right was when you lead a low club to the next trick and LHO plays a low card, The math based on what to do was the subset of small cards, and the logic goes something like this....

 

LHO had few ways to hold xxx than Qxx. Rather than do combinational math, lets assume the small cards were the 2, 3, 4, 5 (plus the QT).

 

The number of ways he could hold xxx is

 

2,3,4

2.4.5

3,4.5

2,3,5

 

While the number of ways he cold hold Qxx, is

Q32

Q42

Q52

Q43

Q53

Q54

 

The math for people who rather do that is C(4,3) versus C(4,2)... where C(x,y) = x! / (y! * (x-y)!), were 4! for example is 4*3*2*1, so pick 3 out of four for xxx would be C(4,3) = 4*3*2*1 / (3! x (4-3)!) = 24/(3*2*1) = 24/6 = 4

 

Then pick two (low cards) out of four (low cards) would be C(4,2) = 4*3*2*1/(2!)*(4-2)!) = 24/2*2 = 24/4 = 6

 

Rubens suggest a caveat in the two cases where RHO played low or the ten. When he played the low, you might go with the nine if RHO routinely always played the Ten from Tx. Then when RHO played the Ten, you might change you plan if RHO would tend to never play the Ten from Tx. Try to figure out what he suggested if RHO dropped the Queen under the king, and more importantly why.