Play 6NT

[CamHenry]

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After an unedifying auction, you play 6NT by South, on the lead of the ♠Q. 11 top tricks are there; 12 if you choose a working finesse or squeeze. What's the best percentage line?

[biggerclub]

West likely has the Js from the opening lead. I don't like it but QJxx(x) seems more likely than Q8(xxx). So the Ts is a threat against that. Which is good.

 

Play A (the K could be single -- in which case you can still run this squeeze for the OT -- but you have other options as well) and, whether the d's are not good or not, a diamond pitching a club. Win any return in hand or with the A of clubs if necessary and in this latter case, come to hand with a heart to the Ah.

 

Now run the remaining diamonds, pitching clubs, then hearts, coming down to Ts, Kh, Jh on board and 4d, 8h, 9c in hand. Play the 4d and if the Ts is not good pitch it. Play the 8h and if West follows, go up with the K as West should be holding the Js as his last card. Obviously if, at any point, the OPPs have both followed to 1 round of hearts and pitched 3 hearts total, stop pitching hearts, run off the diamonds and other winners in your hand and play a H to the K.

 

This line will work whenever the Js and Kc are split or if either or both minor suit K(s) is (are) singleton. We have 8 diamonds so the chances of a 4-1 split are 28%. 20% of those times, the K will be single. 4.6%. We have 6 clubs so the chances of a 6-1 split are 7%. Approximately 15% of those times the K will be single. Add another 1%. If indeed we are right about W holding the Js, then E will hold the Kc 67% of the time (three unknown cards including the KC, E has two of them).

 

What if when we toss the Ts, E throws the Js? Now if two hearts are out at the end and W follows low to our 8H, I am playing him for the Kc (if three Hs are out, we have to play him for the Qh, else we have zero shot) and going up.

 

I am not going to work out all of that because a lot depends on how you can expect your OPPs to discard but I would say that the total chances for the slam are over 75%, perhaps over 80%.

[Antrax]

Why is it better to play ♦AQ instead of finessing? Is single K with W more likely than double K with E?

[biggerclub]

Why is it better to play ♦AQ instead of finessing? Is single K with W more likely than double K with E?

 

You have to use your entry to the table to do it.

[lowerline]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakha8daqjt954c97&n=st95hkj753d6caqjt]133|200[/hv]

 

After an unedifying auction, you play 6NT by South, on the lead of the ♠Q. 11 top tricks are there; 12 if you choose a working finesse or squeeze. What's the best percentage line?

 

I think I will take the chance of ♦Kx in East. If the ♦K is in West and he switches to clubs I'm in trouble though...

 

Steven

[mikeh]

Play diamond A and continue the suit until they take the K. Aiming for the diamond hook is not a good idea: picture how you get to dummy....say you play a heart to the K and the finesse loses.

 

Instead, if rho wins the diamond he must return a spade. Now cross to the club A and back to hand in hearts. Run the diamonds, pitching clubs (note your club 9)

 

After 2 spades, one club and one heart, 6 diamonds reduces the hand to a double squeeze position. LHO can't keep spade J and Qx hearts on the last diamond and tho can't keep club K and Qx hearts....of course if any opp holds all missing cards, he is also squeezed. I have to leave now so can't post the play for diamond K on left.

 

Edit: if LHO wins the diamond, and leads a club, rise with the A and proceed as above. If he returns a heart, win in hand (although one could play the heart J if one wanted to) and cash the club A and return to handin spades and proceed as above.

[CamHenry]

Well, I played the hand as biggerclub and mikeh suggest - diamond ace, then the Q, beaten by the K on my left (from Kx). He returned a club, so I grabbed the A and squeezed RHO in the round suits, with the ♥J and ♣9 as menaces.

 

What kind of squeeze is this, where LHO guards one suit and RHO guards two? Obviously it's non-positional (since if LHO has 2+ guards, he has to discard before dummy and I therefore know whether the ♠10 is good). I'm curious, because it's the first time I've executed a play like this starting at trick 1.

[manudude03]

Well, I played the hand as biggerclub and mikeh suggest - diamond ace, then the Q, beaten by the K on my left (from Kx). He returned a club, so I grabbed the A and squeezed RHO in the round suits, with the ♥J and ♣9 as menaces.

 

What kind of squeeze is this, where LHO guards one suit and RHO guards two? Obviously it's non-positional (since if LHO has 2+ guards, he has to discard before dummy and I therefore know whether the ♠10 is good). I'm curious, because it's the first time I've executed a play like this starting at trick 1.

 

It's a simple squeeze played as a double (you'd still make even if you had the ♥2 instead of the ♥J).

[mikeh]

You do have add the element of a Vienna coup in clubs, should they not force you to do it by having LHO lead a club...if, for example, RHO won the diamond K, he'd return a spade and you'd ned to unblock the club A yourself.

[CamHenry]

You do have add the element of a Vienna coup in clubs, should they not force you to do it by having LHO lead a club...if, for example, RHO won the diamond K, he'd return a spade and you'd ned to unblock the club A yourself.

 

Actually, that's a good point - it's probably a misdefence for LHO to exit the club, because it makes a competent declarer have to go up with the ♣A and not risk the finesse. I'm not certain I'd have got it right on a ♥ return, for example.

[cnszsun]

If there is no club return from lho forcing you to make early decision, I'm wondering which line has better odds: the double squeeze as suggested, or 3 rounds of heart, then club finesse.

[CamHenry]

If there is no club return from lho forcing you to make early decision, I'm wondering which line has better odds: the double squeeze as suggested, or 3 rounds of heart, then club finesse.

 

How do you play 3 rounds of ♥ after losing the ♦K?

[PhilKing]

If there is no club return from lho forcing you to make early decision, I'm wondering which line has better odds: the double squeeze as suggested, or 3 rounds of heart, then club finesse.

 

I would not recommend ruffing out hearts in 6NT.

 

As an aside, the best non-squeeze line is to finesse a club at trick two. This wins when:

 

a) Finesse wins.

 

b) Kx or stiff king of diamonds is on-side.

 

c) Diamond finesse wins but does not drop, but Qxx heart is onside.

 

d) Some clown ducks when you finesse the club.

 

It's not as good as the "double squeeze" line (about 10% worse unless d is a big factor), but it's not bad as long as you don't mind the occasional 3 off. It would be the best line if we did not have the ♣9.