relay versus natural

[MarceldB]

S/NS, MP (NS are silent)

 

W------------E

x-------------AKJxxx

xxxxxxx----AKQ

xx-----------AQJx

xxx----------non

 

I will not bore you with the complete sequence but the Relayer knows with the bid of 6 Diamonds: no Jack of hearts.

And furtheron: the exact distribution, no any King or Ace, stiff Queen of spades could be possible

 

What are now the considerations for the grand?

- compared with the pairs who don't have all this information, will they reach 6Hearts or even 7? In natural style: what will be the bidding?

Pass - 2C - 2D - 3S - 4H? and then?

Or how in a strong Club system?

- if Hearts are 3-0 divided a club lead is a disaster (by the way East will be the declarer). If no club lead you need spades 3-3 or the diamond finesse

 

Happily last night I heard the Jack of Hearts so I had not this problem. But I always like to analyse a bidding in case you hear the hand not hoped fore.

 

Any suggestion?

[Chamaco]

Pass - 2C - 2D - 3S - 4H? and then?

If that is the auction, opener will continue asking for keycards: not for KC, but to be able to ask kings up the line:

 

4NT - 5C (0-3 kc)

5NT(ask the cheeapest K cue) - 6H (no K in the minors)

all pass

[mikestar]

The grand is touch and go at best. Given they have 10 clubs, they will probably always find the club lead. So I make it a bit less than 50%--definately a no go no matter what the field is doing.

 

No let's look at the hand where your partner does have JH. Here the chance of the grand making is about 2/3. The problem is that some pairs will miss the slam for lack of bidding space/methods.

 

Now let's assume say a 13 table game where the top is 12. Here is the expectation in MP gained or lost by bidding the grand, assuming no one else bids the grand Since we make 2/3 of the time our mathcpoint expectation for bidding the grand is 8 (12 * 2/3) as we are top if it makes and bottom if it goes down.

 

Pairs .......... MP for ...... Net gain

bidding ....... stopping .. or loss

slam .......... in six....... in MP

12 ............... 6.0 ........ +2.0

11 ............... 6.5 ........ +1.5

10 ............... 7.0 ........ +1.0

9 ............... 7.5 ........ +0.5

8 ............... 8.0 ........ +0.0

7 ............... 8.5 ........ -0.5

6 ............... 9.0 ........ -1.0

5 ............... 9.5 ........ -1.5

4 ............... 10.0 ........ -2.0

3 ............... 10.5 ........ -2.5

2 ............... 11.0 ........ -3.0

1 ............... 11.5 ........ -3.5

0 ............... 12.0 ........ -4.0

 

So how strong is the field and how bad do you need a swing? In a club game I'm stopping, in a national championship I'm bidding the grand.

 

Since it is a close decision with JH, it's a no brainer without it.