wank Posted May 21, 2013 Report Share Posted May 21, 2013 [hv=pc=n&w=s6haq92dt8cq85432&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1c(17+)p1h(7+%200-2%20controls)p1np2sp4sppp]133|200[/hv] Ignoring the fact the opps' system is pony if they can't transfer and make the strong hand declarer, what do you lead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted May 21, 2013 Report Share Posted May 21, 2013 [hv=pc=n&w=s6haq92dt8cq85432&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1c(17+)p1h(7+%200-2%20controls)p1np2sp4sppp]133|200| Ignoring the fact the opps' system is pony if they can't transfer and make the strong hand declarer, what do you lead?[/hv] IMO ♣ = 10, ♦ = 8, ♥ = 6, ♠ = 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfa1010 Posted May 22, 2013 Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 Heart queen is so tempting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted May 22, 2013 Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 Heart queen is so tempting. To qoute Nigel: ♥Q = 11all others = -111 If it's good enough for Moriarty ... BTW I don't really mean it, but the hand has a certain historical resonance for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted May 22, 2013 Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 I lead a club too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted May 22, 2013 Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 TOP dia not even sure what any other lead is trying to accomplish-- heart Q is just plain asking for trouble and needs luck to be worthwhileat all. Most of the time it will nothing more than lose tempo for the defense. Low club seems safer than hugely speculative heart Q but are we reallyexpecting our lead from a 6 card suit to be effective. Our singleton trumpdoes not mean a forcing defense will work since the bidding has givenus no clue how long the opps trumps are. Top dia at least this gives us a great chance to lead through strengthand with our heart A maybe even time to do so again (if needed) and setup defensive tricks. This lead can also work if we manage to find p with AQwith K to our left and we get a dia ruff. trump?? why all that will probably do is solve any trump suit problemdeclarer might have and almost assuedly loses tempo for formingdefensive tricks. IMO !DT = 10 low !C = 7 !HA = 4 !S = 2 anything else but !HQ = 1 !HQ = -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted May 22, 2013 Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 I have no imagination, so I'd lead a club. That can work in two ways: we may be able to get a force going, or we might be able to arrange a club ruff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted May 22, 2013 Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 low club is a stand out. Somewhat unlikely to cost a trick.Possible to develop a trick that might go away on good diamond. Plus other good thing can happen like a club ruff or overruff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted May 22, 2013 Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 I have no imagination, so I'd lead a club. lol couldn't have said my feelings better myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jallerton Posted May 22, 2013 Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 Heart queen is so tempting. That was my first instinct too. Leads of this nature are rather less effective after a long trance, so I might have had it on the table before having a chance to reconsider! On reflection, our singleton spade gives us hope that partner may have trump tricks). ♥Q lead (likely to be either brilliant or stupid) is more worth trying if we change a small club into a small spade. To qoute Nigel: ♥Q = 11all others = -111 Nigel did give 6 marks to a ♥, but he didn't say which one! IMO !DT = 10 low !C = 7 !HA = 4 !S = 2 anything else but !HQ = 1 !HQ = -2 If you swap round ♦10 and ♥Q in the marking I might agree with you. ♦10 lead is horrible. Are you hoping to hit diamond honours in partner's hand? Give partner as much as AJx(x), with the other ♦honours split, and he won't be congratulating you at the end of the hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wank Posted May 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 my feelings were roughly what jallerton said. the player who held the hand led a diamond, which is the only lead to defeat the contract, and considered it 'automatic' as he chalked up his 12 imps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted May 23, 2013 Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 I think someone who leads a diamond and thinks it's automatic has a basic flaw in his understanding of how tricks are taken at bridge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenMan Posted May 23, 2013 Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 Given that the diamond lead worked in practice, it's worth asking: How unusual or freakish were the opps' actual hands? Put another way, if the diamond is so much worse than the ♥Q, then with the actual result we should see some highly unexpected layout when we look at the whole deal. So: Do we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted May 23, 2013 Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 Given that the diamond lead worked in practice, it's worth asking: How unusual or freakish were the opps' actual hands? Put another way, if the diamond is so much worse than the ♥Q, then with the actual result we should see some highly unexpected layout when we look at the whole deal. So: Do we?This logic does not follow at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted May 23, 2013 Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 But a diamond lead works and it is not the percentage lead clee! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted May 23, 2013 Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 I think someone who leads a diamond and thinks it's automaticthinks that doubleton leads are always automatic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted May 23, 2013 Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 ♥Q doesn't just gain when declarer holds the mythical Txx in hand and Kxx on the table. Sometimes you just hold the trick when declarer does not cover from Kxxx in dummy and Tx in hand. He may not even cover with KTxx in dummy and xxx in hand. It can also gain outright with Kxx in dummy and Jxx in hand when we build two heart. A club is basically betting on "standard" losing layouts for declarer. We want declarer to hold the heart king and we need to build a club trick(s) before declarer can build or cash tricks in their most likely long side suit (obviously diamonds). And if partner has nothing in clubs, it will usually be fairly safe. It avoids blowing either red suit. A diamond bets on .... Sorry, I got nothing! A diamond would probably do well in a sim, because when partner has Qxxx, declarer can just pick up the suit with a backward finesse, but in real life he needs help from the opening lead, and we can't fool the computer with the ♥Q. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted May 23, 2013 Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 A diamond would probably do well in a sim I actually seriously doubt this, even though I agree a sim would show a diamond lead to be much better than it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenMan Posted May 24, 2013 Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 This logic does not follow at all. I'll go slower, then. From previous posts, we have asserted, in effect: 1) The ♦10 lead could only work if the deal were a freak of nature. 2) The ♦10 lead worked. So we conclude: 3) The deal was a freak of nature. I simply want to know: Is the conclusion in fact a true statement? If it is, then assertion 1 is not disproved. If it is not, then assertion 1 IS disproved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wank Posted May 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 the hand isn't freaky at all, though i still hate a diamond lead. well, actually i suppose you could argue the trump blockage is a bit freaky. [hv=pc=n&s=sk9543hk43d543cj7&w=s7haq95dt8cq86543&n=sajthj2da762cakt2&e=sq862ht876dkqj9c9]399|300[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted May 24, 2013 Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 I'll go slower, then. From previous posts, we have asserted, in effect: 1) The ♦10 lead could only work if the deal were a freak of nature. 2) The ♦10 lead worked. So we conclude: 3) The deal was a freak of nature. I simply want to know: Is the conclusion in fact a true statement? If it is, then assertion 1 is not disproved. If it is not, then assertion 1 IS disproved.Nobody asserted (1), I don't know where you got this idea, but I think you are being dense/stupid on purpose so I will not respond anymore. A lead does not need to have the standard of being "almost impossible to be correct" in order for it to be "very terrible", opening leads are very random, it is very common for a lead that no expert would consider to be even reasonable to be the winning lead in any given scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted May 24, 2013 Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 How is club lead not defeating the contract ? won in hand, 3 round of S ending in dummy now what ? Even if you dont lose a diamond you will lose 3H+ club ruff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted May 24, 2013 Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 Even ♥Q lead beats it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted May 24, 2013 Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 Even ♥Q lead beats it. This hand looks like proof that the queen never costs - even when partner has almost the nuts in diamonds and declarer has the ♥K, the heart is just as good. All leads beat it by one trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenMan Posted May 24, 2013 Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 Nobody asserted (1), I don't know where you got this idea, but I think you are being dense/stupid on purpose so I will not respond anymore. A lead does not need to have the standard of being "almost impossible to be correct" in order for it to be "very terrible" Two people in the thread scored the diamond lead at MINUS 2 on a 1-10 scale. You may consider that -2 falls between 1 and 10, but I believe you are being dense/stupid on purpose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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