3NT or 4H

[kgr]

MP's[hv=pc=n&s=s432haj65432d32c2&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1np2d(transfer)p2hp]133|200[/hv]

From a discussion at the bar. Someone said that 3NT is more likely to make than 4H.

What is your opinion?

[ArtK78]

I would put my money on 4♥. 3NT could be the winning call, but 4♥ is probably more likely to make. It is certainly likely to go down less when it fails.

[32519]

From a discussion at the bar. What is your opinion?

 

I would put my money on 4♥.

I would put my money on the bar. :P

[Lord Molyb]

Would not even consider 3NT for a moment... I would actually texas transfer.

[Free]

3NT is either the alcohol or a resulter talking.

[JLOGIC]

Def 4H

[FM75]

MP's[hv=pc=n&s=s432haj65432d32c2&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1np2d(transfer)p2hp]133|200[/hv]

From a discussion at the bar. Someone said that 3NT is more likely to make than 4H.

What is your opinion?

Assuming that the person claiming that 3NT is more like to make than 4H... Unstated, but let's assume the 3NT is 15-17 balanced to semi-balanced. Do they bid 1N even with 5 card major, also not mentioned.

 

It seems to me that S has 2 choices.

2♦ transfer to 2♥, pass

and 4♦ transfer to 4♥ pass (Texas, and preemptive if they play Texas).

 

The likelihood of making 3N is irrelevant unless NS has some unmentioned convention related to a possible continuation over 2♥. North did not super-accept, which might reasonably have been an option.

 

South has an 8 loser hand (LTC) even assuming a 3 card heart fit. That suggest 9 max tricks in hearts, but not in NT. Entries to South hand? :)

[helene_t]

Maybe 3nt is more likely to make when opener has 3 hearts but if he has only two the risk that the hearts don't run is.substantial . So he will correct to 4he on the wrong hands. If you believe in 3nt you should bid it without transfer .

 

Anyway i would not consider 3nt .

[Free]

This hasn't been mentioned, but the hands where opener has singleton ♥K (or whatever singleton ♥ actually) also play better in 4♥.