Whatchoo talkin' bout Willis?

[daveharty]

[hv=pc=n&s=shkqj93dakqjck853&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=3dpp]133|200[/hv]

 

Matchpoints.

[billw55]

I will try 4♥. I'm only one spot card short. I guess partner is more than 50% to have three hearts, and two may be workable anyway. If the opening diamond lead gets ruffed, that's life.

 

My main concern is that whoever holds the long spades, may also hold a weak hand, else they might have bid them. If it is partner, I won't do well. If it is RHO, I may miss slam. Oh well it's only matchpoints.

[Fluffy]

I hate it everytime my LHO preempts on the suit I have AKQJ :P

 

3♥ is a bid underbid, double is a suicide, this leaves 4♥ and 3NT.

 

It won't be easy to make 3NT when hearts don't break, but it is a trick shorter, avoids diamond ruff risks, and we have many clubs to pitch on the spades while we wait partner's slow stoppers.

 

On the other hand 3NT leaves us poorly placed if someone bids 4♠ next and is prone to be down from the start. So I would go for 4♥. I would prefer a non leaping michael's bid if avaible.

[Hanoi5]

Might the opponents have taken out the wrong card from the bidding box and meant to open 3♠? I vote for 4♥, too afraid of spades to double or bid 3NT.

[ArtK78]

I strongly suspect that 3NT is the right contract, but I am worried that my partner, with long spades and little else, will pull to 4♠ if I bid 3NT, expecting to find a somewhat more useful spade holding in my hand.

 

So I bid 4♥.

[ggwhiz]

100% with the other posters.

 

I'm deathly afraid of a 4♠ bid from pard.

[aguahombre]

With no diamond cards, LHO figures to have the stuff I would want partner to have. 3H is not an underbid, IMO. I might never get to Dummy; am mildly curious to see the actual layout, and how poorly a Pass-0ut at 3D would fare...either because it is the last plus, or because CHO's continuations lead to disaster.

[JLOGIC]

I like 4H also, despite the risk of diamond ruffs (or overruff).

[wyman]

No idea what's right, but 3N was my gut reaction with 3H as my second choice (can still bid 3N over 3S). Obviously it could be disastrous. Hopefully they have the agreement to lead a short major if they double, so we'll just be playing for 50s if it's really bad.

[cargobeep]

I'll try 3NT. I'm afraid of several diamond ruffs here, ESPECIALLY given that I have AKQJ♦

[gszes]

Now for the minority report:

 

3H

 

My leading question is how many times will p hold a hand

where 4h is exaclty the right place to be where they will not

raise 3h to 4h??? Even opposite a partner that could not

bid over 3d (thank goodness this problem is not rho opens

3d) the % of hands must be agonizingly small because let's

face it we need some help from p to make 4h.

 

3H

 

Allows p to bid 3s which in turn allows us to bid a 3n that

strongly suggests spade shortness/weakness since we

opened the festivities with 3h vs 3n. The biggest fear of

a partner with long spades gets that suit out of their

system at the 3 level and if they repeat spades at the 4

level we have good cause to let them play it. that means

3h brings 4s into the picture while 4h eliminates it.

 

3H

 

Allows us the possibility of clubs if p is 5/6 in the blacks

I mean seriously if p is holding something like

xxxxx A x Axxxxx where 7c is a lay down do we have even

the slightest prayer of bidding even 6c when we start with

4h?? its easy after we start with 3h.

 

3H

 

Will enable us to stay out of a lot of poor slams where p gets

overly excited when we bid 4h especially those where p has

less than stellar heart support thinking we must surely have

great hearts to bid 4h.

 

I will gladly take a rare + 170 when p has say xxxxxx Jx x QJTx

(are we sure they wont raise to 4h with that?) and greatly

increase the probabilty of acheiving a much better score on the

rest of the hands.

[Lord Molyb]

what gszes said

[bigbenvic]

what gszes said

 

3♥ for me too, since 3♠ is forcing so I don't fear 4♠ from him. 3nt will almost certainly get 4♠ from pards and that's awful.

 

4♥ my second pick but it's kind of unilateral, also it's less likely they'll try 5♦ this way, if partner supports they just might try a sacrifice which I will have the axe ready for!

[the hog]

I will bid 3H. I would not be surprised to hear 3S from pd. This would allow me to bid 3NT. If I bid an immediate 3NT, would partner not bid 4S with 6 or so reasonable S and a hand not good enough to overcall? Probably. I realise 3H is an underbid, but I think it is practical.

[MrAce]

I am between 4♥ and 4♦ (strong 2 suiter)

 

Dunno which is better.

[JLOGIC]

I am between 4♥ and 4♦ (strong 2 suiter)

 

Dunno which is better.

 

I don't think we need to show our secondary diamonds :P

[MrAce]

I don't think we need to show our secondary diamonds :P

 

 

I think we have quite a good chance of finding pd with clubs but yea i ignored it is mps.

 

If pd can not bid 4♥ over 4♦ i think 4♥ bidders will not have a free run in that contract either. Could be interesting when i play slam club making when others go down in 4♥.:P I do not think it is as bad as it looks but what do i know.

[Zelandakh]

I suspect Justin was poking a little fun that 4♦ was NLM for diamonds and a major, given that most partners would bid their better major over it. There must be a decent chance that that would be spades, so you are pretty much committing to the 5 level on any hand where partner's spades are better than hearts.

[MrAce]

I suspect Justin was poking a little fun that 4♦ was NLM for diamonds and a major, given that most partners would bid their better major over it. There must be a decent chance that that would be spades, so you are pretty much committing to the 5 level on any hand where partner's spades are better than hearts.

 

I have no idea what NLM means, i am bidding 4♦ if it only means any strong 2 suiter except diamonds. ( i am not claiming this is a the best way to use 4♦ for the record) Thus pd can not skip hearts if he has 3 of them.

 

If he has less than 3♥ and knowing that he has 0-1-2 diamonds, we are very very likely to finds clubs.

 

As you mentioned this method may work well this hand, but may work very poorly when we make the same bid with majors and pd can not bid his stronger spades, i admit.

[Zelandakh]

NLM is Non-Leaping Michaels, where a non-jump overcall of 4m over a 3 level preempt shows a 2-suiter including the minor bid and an unbid major. If playing this over a 3♦ preempt, a 4♣ bid shows clubs and a major, while a 4♦ overcall asks for the better major. Even without agreeing NLM, I would assume this meaning for 4♦ without any agreement to the contrary.

[ArtK78]

NLM is Non-Leaping Michaels, where a non-jump overcall of 4m over a 3 level preempt shows a 2-suiter including the minor bid and an unbid major. If playing this over a 3♦ preempt, a 4♣ bid shows clubs and a major, while a 4♦ overcall asks for the better major. Even without agreeing NLM, I would assume this meaning for 4♦ without any agreement to the contrary.

I would not, and I would assume that a 4♦ bid shows diamonds.

 

EDIT: I am not deleting this post, as it was already quoted, but please ignore it anyway. I was very confused when I posted it.

[Zelandakh]

I would not, and I would assume that a 4♦ bid shows diamonds.

You really play that a 4♦ bid shows diamonds after an opponent has opened 3♦? In balancing position?!?

[ArtK78]

You really play that a 4♦ bid shows diamonds after an opponent has opened 3♦? In balancing position?!?

Sorry, I got this thread confused with another one. I assumed that the opening bid was 3♠. Always a problem when a new page starts and one can't see the OP without paging back.

 

Of course a cue bid over a preempt shows some sort of very strong hand. It is assumed to be two places to play, but it is possible that you have a massive one suiter too strong to just leap to game and certainly not willing to have a double passed out for penalties.

[MrAce]

 

 

Of course a cue bid over a preempt shows some sort of very strong hand. It is assumed to be two places to play, .......

 

Yes, thats what i meant. I mean NLM is a convention that came later. Std cue of a preempt showed 2 suiter strong hands. As i said earlier i am not claiming that method is better but i meant 4♦ cue as 2 places to play. Conveniently, of course, in an other topic i may use it as NLM :P

[biggerclub]

There are some clues here that have not been discussed.

 

We have 19 HCP and a pre-empting OPP lacking AKQJ. Does he psyche -- is it possible he has a pre-empt in spades given that so many are missing and no one has come in to show them? LHO should have at least 8 HCPs here unless it is a psyche with KQJxxxxxx(x) in spades. That leaves 13HCP for P and RHO. In the absence of any other information split them evenly, 7 and 6.

 

We have RHO who coyly passed over this pre-empt, when she might have advanced especially with a Yarborough. She cannot possibly know that we are so hopelessly stuck. She also likely has 5 or 6 spades but did nothing -- which would be customary even looking at strength facing a pre-empt where she has no fit. We have a partner who passed despite shortness in the pre-empted suit and so is much less likely to have as many as 13HCP.

 

We have a first seat opener whose pre-empt should be sound, but obviously isn't. This being MPs it is fairly safe to assume that we are already in a top or bottom situation, so we should do our best to get a top out of it -- and not worry about the improbable but possible down 5 doubled. We are unlikely to get a top without the game bonus or an equivalent penalty defensively. If 3hs is miraculously the right place, then every other pair in the room will be in a comfortable partial making 3 hearts.

 

I think the chances of finding partner with any considerable strength is fairly low. Hopefully he will assume that we already put him on 7 HCPs when trying to figure out how to deal with this pre-empt (he should). He may have a K more, but there is no reason to put every missing point in his hand and even if they are there, we are not in too bad shape with a fit somewhere (note that as little as Th stiff may be enough of a fit to manage this hand in either Hs or Cs). I do expect partner to have at least 5 spades and possibly 6 or 7, but it is even more likely that one or both opponents have considerable spade stacks.

 

I expect partner will start thinking (always but especially) when I do something like double and he is looking at D shortness while responder did nothing to advance the auction.

 

We would like P to be declarer if at all possible to avoid the deadly opening suit preference ruff, return, ruff, etc.

 

I am going to start with a x, expecting partner to call 3s (unimpeded) upwards of 75% of the time. I am cue bidding 4d over 3H or 4c (accepting and slam seeking). I am reading 3NT as asking me to pick a suit and I will be happy to choose 4h's, not expecting the auction to end there -- seriously, someone has to have the spades, don't they? If Partner jumps in h's or clubs, I put him in 6. If partner cue bids 4ds I am signing off in 4h (duplication in the worst way).

 

So that leaves the spade bids to deal with. I am converting 3s to 4h and then to 5c if he persists. I am converting 4s to 5c, although this could be bad (AKQxxxx, x, xx, xxx). Doubled or not, btw on these auctions.

 

On the off chance that our table's auction is standard, I expect to have company in whatever the final contract is.