Lead V

[Finch]

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The 1D opening can't be 18+ balanced, so you can assume declarer is unbalanced.

[JLOGIC]

Part of me wants to lead the HQ with hope to score the DQ. But it sounds like they must have 10 diamonds, dummy has 5 and declarer must have 5 unless hes 4441. So that is probably a mirage.

 

I guess I'd try a spade. maybe we can beat them 6 or something :P

[Fluffy]

spade is their weakest spot it seems. Leading the 7 to ask for a switch instead of the 3.

[jallerton]

Part of me wants to lead the HQ with hope to score the DQ. But it sounds like they must have 10 diamonds, dummy has 5 and declarer must have 5 unless hes 4441. So that is probably a mirage.

 

I agree about declarer's hand, but some hands with 4-card ♦ support will make a pre-emptive raise, even at this vulnerability.

[JLOGIC]

I agree about declarer's hand, but some hands with 4-card ♦ support will make a pre-emptive raise, even at this vulnerability.

 

Hmm. Maybe, I would think it would be rare enough to basically ignore but I guess it would be helpful to know your opps style on this. I get the feeling (just based on reading gnashers posts on this forum) that this is more common in the English circles than over here, but of course that is based on a sample size of 1 poster :P.

 

On the other hand, of the situations where responder has 4 diamonds I imagine declarer will even have 6 diamonds a reasonable amount of the time, it's unlikely he has a stiff and 5 diamonds for his 3N bid though 3451 is possible, I would think some 5422 would be more likely but 6 diamonds has to be in there.

 

And they might not misguess diamonds anyways, AQJTx(x) is more attractive of a lead holding the DQ so they may read something into that.

 

That being said, if they were likely to have 9 diamonds I would defintely just lead the HQ and hope for the best, sometimes the simplest beat is the best choice, so IDK. At this point I'm just rambling lol.

[Finch]

The 3D raise on only 4 trumps is much more common here, because for most English people the 1D opening guarantees 4.

 

For these opponents (I was declarer), 1d is either

 

- natural unbalanced (not 4-5 in the minors, we always open 1C or 1NT with that), or

- a weak NT with 4+ diamonds that doesn't mind if partner competes in the suit

[JLOGIC]

What does 2D raise show in england? :P

 

I mean the way I think about it a 4-4 fit with a weak NT opposite a weak hand does not necessarily have to play at the 3 level vul. I don't think the inclusion of 4432 into 1D matters much at all, it seems more of a philosophical difference. The LAW was a very influential book over here I guess lol.

[JLOGIC]

Anyways, if they will frequently raise to 3D on 4 I guess I will just try the queen of hearts. Hopefully declarer is a good player who knows rule of empty spaces. We may get into a him having Kxxx opposite xx hearts thing making it more interesting (he can combine chances by not hooking into us, catering to 6-1 hearts or diamonds working, but if partner had a side entry like the SA he won't have that option anyways). Probably declarer just has stiff K of hearts and 6 diamonds and owned my soul.

[rogerclee]

I'm on board with the S7 followed by re-evaluating what to do after a few tricks. I have had bad experiences trying to beat them after seeing the HQ float around to the king, it just seems like they always have 9 after that when I have no outside fast entry.

 

HA has some appeal, I like to make leads where there is a clear and simple layout where it works well, and on this hand that is declarer with singleton K. I think I prefer it to the HQ.

[broze]

+1 for A♥

[cherdano]

What does 2D raise show in england? :P

Don't know about England, but from a game in Scotland today, playing 4-card majors: Q9x K94 T86 Q982.

[nige1]

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FrancesHinden writes "The 1D opening can't be 18+ balanced, so you can assume declarer is unbalanced."

 

 

IMO ♥A = 10, ♥Q = 9, ♠K = 8, ♠7 = 7, ♣9 = 4.

 

I prefer "vote publicly" polls :)

[/hv]

[JLOGIC]

Is the ace of hearts real? We are giving up control of the heart suit/our only sure entry to cater to stiff K of hearts? lol

[JLOGIC]

to all non clee ace of heart leaders: the danger of leading the ace of hearts when you have Qx of diamonds is that they will now hook into the safe hand (partner)/not hook so you will never score a diamond trick. Unless we have some read that they are likely to have stiff K of hearts that seems like an unneccesarily massive lead.

[MickyB]

What does 2D raise show in england? :P

 

Spades+diamonds IMO

[MickyB]

The LAW was a very influential book over here I guess lol.

 

Raising to 3D with 4 diamonds and a stiff can be considered LAWful. 16 total trumps => one of 2S and 3D makes, the other is one off. They are more likely to make a mistake over 3D and often there will be an extra trump for one side or the other.

 

I'll join those leading a spade.

[jallerton]

Raising to 3D with 4 diamonds and a stiff can be considered LAWful. 16 total trumps => one of 2S and 3D makes, the other is one off. They are more likely to make a mistake over 3D and often there will be an extra trump for one side or the other.

 

I agree. If 1♦ can be a weak NT with 4 diamonds, I wouldn't jump to 3♦ on a balanced hand with 4 diamonds, but with a shortage or perhaps 2=2=4=5, a pre-emptive raise has a lot more going for it.

[jallerton]

Is the ace of hearts real? We are giving up control of the heart suit/our only sure entry to cater to stiff K of hearts? lol

 

to all non clee ace of heart leaders: the danger of leading the ace of hearts when you have Qx of diamonds is that they will now hook into the safe hand (partner)/not hook so you will never score a diamond trick. Unless we have some read that they are likely to have stiff K of hearts that seems like an unneccesarily massive lead.

 

♥A lead also gains over ♥Q when declarer has ♥Kx and your natural entry is ♠K over declarer's ♠A(Q). On this layout, if you lead ♥Q declarer may be able to strip squeeze you.

[Phil]

I guess Frances would specify matchpoints if that were the case. Of course I would decollate partner if they led heart Q at pairs.

 

I don't hate the Q at imps but I prefer a spade. Giving up No 9 seems like a big concern against aggro game bidders so I'll hunt for partner's entry / trick source with a spade.

[Codo]

If you hate to gift them a 9. trick, why do you lead a spade into the strong hand?

Wouldn't a club be the lead most likely NOT to blow a trick and most likely to hit partners length?

[rogerclee]

I thought this was the most interesting of all the threads you started Frances, I hope you will post the results and your thoughts on this problem.

[Finch]

I thought this was an interesting lead problem of itself.

In BW, you don't get to find out what the full lie is, you should consider it as an abstract problem.

I think you should lead a heart, although I am torn between the ace and the queen.

 

That's a warning that the full hand is going to be a disappointment, because the only lead to beat it is a diamond (sorry). Codo was right, that you have to not give the 9th trick on the opening lead. At the table, they played in 4D at one table, and I played in 3NT at the other. LHO tried a club lead to be passive, but that didn't work, because their hands are:

 

9x

xx

K5xx

J10xxx

 

AJ8x

Kx

A10987

AQ

 

I leave it as an exercise for the reader how to make it on a black suit lead lead

(RHO made it easy by not inserting an honour when I led a spade from the dummy, but it's still cold anyway)

 

p.s. the king of spades lead would be interesting

[rfedrick]

 

I leave it as an exercise for the reader how to make it on a black suit lead lead

(RHO made it easy by not inserting an honour when I led a spade from the dummy, but it's still cold anyway)

 

 

So RHO didn't have ♥9xx then.

[gszes]

heart Q

 

Unless the heart K is trick 9 the downsides of leading the Q are few--

 

We do not lose out when p has the club A or KQ since the opps can't

run 9 tricks without clubs or spades. Leading the A can really be damaging

to the defense in many distributional cases u give up the heart K anyway

(except for those rare stiff K scenarios). Opps may be able to navigate

their way to 9 tricks via clubs/dia/heart K spade A. OUCH

 

I do not pin much hope the dia Q will win a trick but leading the heart A

will virtually guarantee it wont take one (JLOGIC).

[Finch]

here's another layout when the HA is the winning lead:

 

QJx

xxx

J10xxx

Kx

 

 

A

Kxx

A98xx

AQxx

 

I'm not saying you should play for this, but just observing that it's not _only_ stiff king where it gains...