Pass or Bash

[gnasher]

I think stayman and inviting in the major is also important oO.

Would you bid Stayman with Q1084 AJ97 7543 J ?

[fromageGB]

I am missing something, surely. It seems your field is weak NT oriented, and you are 15+. The field misses its 4-4 major fits on part-score deals, and you get to yours when they open 1NT and you don't. The weak NT opener occurs much more frequently than your strong one.

 

And, you are trying to eliminate the variance on the less frequent occasions at the risk of getting to the dreaded 2NT? 1NT might play as well or better some of the time when you are successful in finding the major suit fit.

Yes, the field misses the 4-4 major fits when it is 12-14 opposite 10 max, and they play 1NT to my 2M. I have no problem with that. :)

I am talking about when it is 15+ and I open 1NT while they play in 2M. These are the times I want to bid 1NT 2♣ 2M pass, or 1NT 2♣ 2♦ 2NT pass, etc. Certainly the 12-14 occurs (beneficially) more often, but I want equality on the 15+ too, playing in 2M , or 2NT tick when others are in 1NT+1.

 

While 1NT making scores better than 2NT-1, 1NT making is a bottom compared with 2M making. A different story at IMP teams, of course. We do have insurance that Stayman then 2NT is 7 or 8 points, so 2NT usually has a play, but we concede potential defeat when responder is a 6 count. If responder is weaker than that, then we are usually OK because 1NT is usually as good (or bad) as 1suit passed out.

 

Edit >1NT might play as well or better some of the time when you are successful in finding the major suit fit.

Some of the time, but infrequently. Frequency is king, at matchpoints.

[aguahombre]

Frequency is king, at matchpoints.

When you get to 2NT because there is no major fit, you lose or break even and leak information in the process ---add in the doubles of 2C which help the defense or get the opponents into the auction when they couldn't otherwise.

 

There would have to be an overwhelming probability that when responder holds a four-card major Opener will fit that same major in order for your strategy to gain ---results diluted slightly by the infrequent chances of 120 vs 110, or 90 vs-50.

[MickyB]

Also, some will reach the three-level on the 4-4 major fit [1m:1M, 3M:P, 1M:3M preemptive, 1M:2M and oppo protect etc], giving another way for 1NT to win matchpoints.

[JLOGIC]

Would you bid Stayman with Q1084 AJ97 7543 J ?

 

I'm sure I would...don't ask me what I'd do over 2D heh, but again too much potential for 4 of a major to pass imo.

[fromageGB]

There would have to be an overwhelming probability that when responder holds a four-card major Opener will fit that same major in order for your strategy to gain ---results diluted slightly by the infrequent chances of 120 vs 110, or 90 vs-50.

I disagree with this. If opener fits the major, then we have not gained but broken even. I don't see a gain at all (compared to field) for stayman, but I do see a loss when there is a major fit if you don't stayman. This loss is bigger than the loss caused by using stayman in allowing them to double 2♣.

 

To quote the Pavlicek statistics (in the absence of any relevant to matchpoints), a 4-4 major beats 1NT three to one.

[MickyB]

Ok, so based on your assumptions -

 

Passing will average 25% when we miss our 4-4 fit and 50% when we don't.

Bidding will average 50% when we find our 4-4 fit.

 

I've not calculated the probability of a 4-4 major fit existing when we have one four-card major, but let's use 2/7 as our figure because it makes the numbers easy, it won't be far off IMO. This would mean that we'd need to score 40% on the boards where we bid Stayman and played in 2NT. That means that we'd have to make 8+ tricks 80% of the time [lol], before you even take into account information leakage.

 

Obviously there are massive flaws to this model, I'm just trying to show that your argument doesn't stack up. If you are so scared of playing 1N with a 4-4 major fit I'd look at Matchpoint Precision, Romex or similar.

[fromageGB]

Ok, so based on your assumptions ...

Thanks for this Micky. Making 2NT 80% of the time is breakeven, as you say, and this is maybe about right when you have a combined 22/23 hcp. I don't imagine it's worse than that, so the argument is valid (or, rather, not invalid). However, it does indicate that it's 50/50 whether I bid Stayman or not, so there probably is no point.

 

My gut feeling was overlooking the apparent fact that sometimes 2M and 2NT both make exactly, and on those hands playing 1NT wins. If this is 25% of the time, that levels the playing field. Don't put me down as a convert just yet, but I will try abandoning the Stayman with 7 or 8 hcp and see how it goes. Maybe as Chris Gibson wrote earlier in this topic, use Stayman then 2NT for a new specific purpose.