simple balancing choice?

[JLOGIC]

Can I throw out an additional idea on it, that perhaps 3♣ is better at MPs and X better at IMPs. That is, that 3♣ is right more often but that X leads to bigger swings.

 

 

Yeah I think this is right, I actually think I would bid 3C at MP.

 

For the record, the deal conditions were very simple (West 6 spades and 5-10 hcp; North 14hcp or less; East at most 2 spades and at most 14hcp). I then threw out a few hands because West did not look remotely like a preempt or because North was an obvious overcall. I admit freely that this might exclude some trap pass hands from North, which is a disadvantage for X.

 

It's not perfect but it's good enough for rough estimation. Yeah it throws out some trap passes, but it also throws out hands where we are gonna get doubled from east (like stiff small spade and 16 counts he would pass and on those hands no doubt 3C will work better than X since partner is gonna leb and bid 3D a lot of the time).

 

There is nothing in the script to make West more likely to have 4 hearts though.

 

FWIW I didn't mean to imply there was an inherent flaw in your script, it was just normal randomness when looking at only 16 hands.

 

n K976.KT542.T86.6 e Q2.A96.AJ9753.Q5 s T.QJ73.Q4.AKT874 w AJ8543.8.K2.J932

n KQ875.T85.A952.5 e 9.A94.KJT863.J96 s T.QJ73.Q4.AKT874 w AJ6432.K62.7.Q32

n AQ972.K965.J83.9 e 4.AT.AT7652.Q532 s T.QJ73.Q4.AKT874 w KJ8653.842.K9.J6

 

Perhaps adding these to the sample would tip it back to X being ahead.

 

REDEMPTION.

 

Lol just kidding, this excersize was pretty useful to me. Thanks for simming the hands.