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which is more likely?


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[hv=pc=n&w=s7542h5daj9732c64&e=s93hk98dkq86caq72&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=pp1d1h3dpp3h4dppp]266|200[/hv]

 

1st trick was J,4,3,Q, opp played udca.

 

2 possible lines

(a)Draw trump, if trump is 3-0 two spade ruffs are no longer available.

(b)Play S at trick 2, but J could be singleton.

 

Which risk is more likely?

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