hop or finese the spades

[Fluffy]

Hand one:[hv=pc=n&s=sqt32hkq8dak94ck6&n=s876ha64dj873cat7]133|200|

1NT-3NT[/hv]

Match points.

 

♠9 lead (second/fourth, but high from doubleton)

 

RHO wins ♠K, thinks a bit, then plays ♠A (LHO drops ♠5) and plays ♠4.

 

 

 

Hand two:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skt632hjdq753ck97&n=sj875ha52d6ca8642]133|200|

RHO deals and opens, MPs nobody vul:

 

(1 ♥)-1 ♠-(2 ♥)-4 ♠

(pas)-pas-(dbl)-all pass[/hv]

 

Nobody vul, MPs, LHO leads ♠4, RHO wins ♠A and returns ♠9

[mikeh]

1. I don't understand why anyone would play a carding method that required the 9 from J95, but that's not especially relevant here.

 

As it is, regardless of which card one should lead from J95, the more pressing question is why anyone would think it to be a suit that one should lead. To me, a nightmare lead would be Jxx Jxx Jxx Jxxx: after 1N 3N, I'd want to puke before making the lead.

 

So I am going to project my distaste for the choice of J9x as a lead and take the hook.

 

2. RHO doubled because he thought he could beat us, or that he could make 4♥. AQx makes sense from both points of view, while Ax doesn't.

 

I once read that there is a special place in hell reserved for those defenders who lead a stiff trump, altho that is not of universal application. However, leading a stiff trump on this auction makes a heck of lot more sense than leading small from Qx. In any event, by ducking I am giving them a trick, with Qx, that he was almost always going to score, on the auction, if I were to have tackled trump myself..tho I haven't gamed the play thoroughly.

 

I assume that finessing was wrong on both hands, since I think that finessing is so clearly correct that I wouldn't have posted this as a problem :D I say that half in jest since experience persuades me that bridge players rarely exhibit unanimity on any question.

[Winstonm]

Well, MikeH, if it is wrong you and I both go get bad scores. On a simple 1-3 NT auction I can't imagine LHO trying to locate partner's 5/6 card suit by leading a doubleton so I assume spades 4/3 with rho holding 4. Simple math tells me it is more likely the long hand holds the J so I take the hook.

 

On hand two, I am completely in agreement with MikeH. There is no good reason to think LHO has led the 9 from Q9, and if he/she has and it is the only killing lead then let him/her get the glory. Finesse once more.

[PhilKing]

Hand one is somewhat dependent on the opposition. All I know for sure is that I would have led a heart, and I don't even know what West's hand is. One good reason for finessing is that if it loses we are probably level with the field, and if it wins we are probably ahead of tables where a club or heart was led, though one could argue the same to a lesser extent if going for the drop.

 

On hand two, if someone is prepared to offer me good odds I'd like to put a cheeky fiver on the drop (analysis under wraps for the moment). And I know Wank will agree with me, because he LOVES leading a low trump from Qx.

 

Any takers?

[mikeh]

Well, MikeH, if it is wrong you and I both go get bad scores. On a simple 1-3 NT auction I can't imagine LHO trying to locate partner's 5/6 card suit by leading a doubleton so I assume spades 4/3 with rho holding 4. Simple math tells me it is more likely the long hand holds the J so I take the hook.

 

That's very simple math: you have the missing 6 spades breaking 3=4 :P

[Antrax]

MikeH, if I'm reading the auction correctly on #2, LHO doubled, not RHO.

[Winstonm]

That's very simple math: you have the missing 6 spades breaking 3=4 :P

:P

[Fluffy]

I also missguessed spade lay out on this one:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=st98742ha72d872ca&n=sk65ht64dak93c742&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=pp1c1s2h2spp3cpp3sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

♥K + Q lead RHO showing 2, spade to the ♠10-♠Q-♠K-♠A

♣K retuned.

 

If I didn't miss anything, if LHO is 1534 he is entryless and just drawing trumps an playing a diamond to the 9 gives you a heart pitch, however if he is 2524 he is endplayed on ♠J, all you have to do is ruff out the clubs while you you advance the diamonds. Obviously I got this one also wrong. While my opponents guessed a couple fo hands later a stiff ♠K offside with 9 trumps.... I hate spades.

[mikeh]

MikeH, if I'm reading the auction correctly on #2, LHO doubled, not RHO.

oh...so I blew a hand as well:) Now I play for the drop

[Finch]

On the first one, a 9 lead from J9x with what had to have been a perfectly good lead in at least one other suit is so insane that I also finesse. Their lead style is relevant: what do they lead from 109xx or 109x (i.e. do they play strong 10s)? If they lead the 10 from that holding, then on the first round, after 9-6-K-2, RHO knows that his partner has led from 9x and continuing the suit from AKJx looks odd, If they lead the 9, then RHO might suspect 109x or 109xx and continuing with a top one from either holding makes much more sense.

[Lord Molyb]

I still finesse on hand two. Why would LHO double with ♠Qx of trumps? If he had a doubleton Qx he surely would not have led it since there are probably better leads.

[gszes]

1. It is perfectly normal defense to force declarer to take a guess early

in the hand before they have knowledge of other options. Rho is merely

trying to convince declarer to "guess" wrong even when the "guess"

seems obvious.

 

Finesse the T.

 

 

 

2. Aside from worries about who did or did not lead from Qx of trumps there are

other considerations in this hand. If rho began with AQx in spades we are in

serious trouble if we fail to take the finesse. When rho wins a dia or a club they

will draw another round of trumps and if clubs fail to break 32 we might still

easily lose 3 dia tricks. By taking the finesse even if it loses we will still have

2 dia ruffs in dummy and can set up (if possible) our 5th club to hold us to

down 1. Taking the finesse is a form of insurance that is trying to keep us from

being slaughtered. Do not get so carried away looking at a single card combination

(who the heck would lead from Qx trumps) and fail to take the entire hand into consideration.

[PhilKing]

OK, still no takers.

 

On hand two, West holds something like:

 

♠Qx

♥xxx

♦AJTx

♣QJxx

 

He bid 2♥, so he is never 1-4 in the majors. Playing West for some sort of 1354 hand with only the ♦ ace as a trick is just nuts imo.

 

West is just taking a pairs shot. The minors are under control, his side have the balance of the points and he wants to cut down ruffs. And what's wrong with leading from Qx agains a nine card fit? We have ample evidence from all the answers above that it is pretty safe when partner has Ax, and is likely generate a trick out of nothing when declarer has AKTxx and partner Jx, or when dummy has Kxxx and declarer JT9xx, when they will rise with the king.

[Fluffy]

♠J9x

♥Jxx

♦Qxx

♣Jxxx

 

I had a bizarre conversation with my opponents, wich happened to be a duplicated conversation when 2 tables later my opps were discussing the same spade lead.

 

-Why did you a spade?

-I cannot lead a club, underleading jacks is awful

-But you have the jack in spades also

-.....

 

-Why did you lead a spade instead of a heart?

-They are better

-They are no longer better when you waste the 9 at trick 1

-......

 

 

 

On the other one it was also right to hop, LHO had ♠Qx.

[gwnn]

To be fair, J9x is stronger than Jxx even if you are forced to lead the 9. I guess it's more likely to blow a trick, though. Interesting arguments by the King on Qx leads, thanks.

[PhilKing]

 

-Why did you lead a spade instead of a heart?

-They are better

-They are no longer better when you waste the 9 at trick 1 :D :D :D

 

 

Gold.

 

 

 

On the other one it was also right to hop, LHO had ♠Qx.

 

What was his full hand?

[Fluffy]

clubs broke 3-2 and I claimed, can't tell you more