To preempt or not to preempt

[rval]

All red, first position, good opponents, you look at this odd hand with contradictory feelings...

[hv=pc=n&w=skhkdkqjt9832ckt2]133|100[/hv]

What's your bid?

 

Suppose you feel quiet today and open 1♦...

the bidding goes:

[hv=d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1dpp2s]133|100[/hv]

2♠ = opening values and decent suit

 

No time now for regrets, what do you rebid?

[Yu18772]

Open 1♦ (not even close imo), rebid 4♦.

 

:)Yu

[aguahombre]

1♦ then, 3♦ now. 2♠ was a strong bid. Let them muddle. Too many subtractors here.

[keylime]

It's either 1 or 5 with me as an opener. Since you've opened 1, rebid 3.

[dake50]

Partner could not dredge up a 1/1 to 1D. They're making 4S.

I'm trying 5D surely now that their game is certain.

Did not opening 5D as it may preempt partner with 3xA.

[Codo]

If I bid 5 ♦ now, they will double me in 99 % of all times.

My best way to win is to let them play in a partial.I ma not sure how to reach this goal, but I will try 3 ♦ and hope that RHO has a good 3 ♠ raise but LHO has minimum. And I will not defend 5 ♦. If partner is not broke-say JQx in clubs and out, this can pay, but then they may have trouble making their game. And if he is really broke, I make just 7 diamond tricks...

[wank]

you've missed the boat on pre-empting them (understandably so, because pre-empting on this hand would be very bad). jumping about now is just offering them an easy penalty. 5♦ will often be 1100 and is never less than 500.

[helene_t]

Partner could not dredge up a 1/1 to 1D. They're making 4S.

I'm trying 5D surely now that their game is certain.

Did not opening 5D as it may preempt partner with 3xA.

I think 5♦ is likely to be too expensive. I have probably four aces to loose and one additional club trick, on a bad day two additional club tricks. OK if partner has nothing they have slam but they won't bid it anyway.

[rhm]

My feeling is that winners at this game would have opened 5♦.

Having too many restrictions on your preempts makes life only easy to your opponents.

Slam is unlikely when your partner needs three out of four first round controls, with which he might raise, and with such short majors and a lot of HCP in your hand it is not easy for opponents to double you effectively.

It looks as if opponents "only" need to cash their top tricks but in practice such contracts are often difficult to defend optimally.

 

Now it is too late.

I would not consider 5♦ now, but have no strong feelings about pass or lower diamond bids.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[rval]

Many thanks for your helpful comments.

After all them I mostly agree with rhm, who summarizes what I have learnt.

Not opening 5♦ was not an agreement constraint. It would have not broken our agreements, I just wanted to keep 3NT on the picture, but I think partner's hand requirements for 3NT are not easier than for 5♦. 6♦ is quite improbable, and probably 5♦ is the long term winner.

Once I opened 1♦, my second voice was pass...!, trying not to push them to game, but there was nothing that could avoid it now...

My partner only cards where (sadly) QJ♣, exactly 54=108752=6=QJ952, so 5♦ would probably be -2 (not easy to find the club ruff), and the best rebid seeing all cards, but I don't think it is worth the voice anyway. 5♠ would probably make so no big loss, but I wanted to check if my reasoning was very wrong

[billw55]

My knee jerk reaction was 1♦ obv. But thinking about it a little more, partner will hold three aces only one time in nine. How often ops will compete in a major suit is less clear, but is surely more than one in nine. So I find myself leaning toward a preempt, and finding 3NT most tempting. Yes this breaks agreements, and I will have to apologize profusely one time in nine. But I suspect (well, guess) that it will gain more often than opening 1♦.

[MrAce]

 

Once I opened 1♦, my second voice was pass...!, trying not to push them to game, but there was nothing that could avoid it now...

My partner only cards where (sadly) QJ♣, exactly 54=108752=6=QJ952, so 5♦ would probably be -2 (not easy to find the club ruff), and the best rebid seeing all cards, but I don't think it is worth the voice anyway. 5♠ would probably make so no big loss, but I wanted to check if my reasoning was very wrong

 

5♠ may or may not make, the problem is how likely they are going to bid 4♠, let alone 5 if you remain silent and not drag them to the game. After all they don't see your cards unless you show them that all your defensive aspects are in short suits and they can just cash their aces to drop them. In this example they have a 10 card fit, which may make it easier to bid the game, but with 8 card fit ot 9 card fit it may not be as easy to reach game, considering their lack of hcps. As a matter of fact, if they did not have such a big fit, they would be unlikely to make anything and you will take some punishment for nothing.

 

Having not opened 5♦ (neither would i) , bidding 5♦ now is suicidal imo.

[steve2005]

I agree 5♦ likely goes for big numbers.

i'm not even going to bid 3♦ let them think im a balanced minimum maybe they wont find their game. bidding 3♦ will let them know they're working with a 30 pt deck as one or both opps will have short ♦

[Codo]

Maybe -just maybe- the opponent with the short diamonds can recognisze the 30 point deck by simply looking in his hand?

[Zelandakh]

If you play a 3NT opening as a good 4m preempt then now is the time to wheel it out. After a 1♦ opening, bidding more than 3♦ seems like a mistake. Whether to prefer 3♦ over simply passing might depend on the opps.

[P_Marlowe]

#1 1D, I can see tharguments for 5D, but ould not make the bid on the table

Most of the time you will end up playing 5Dx

#2 3D - 5D is not running away, the problem with 4D is that you have no clue,

how much under pressure the felt bidding 4S,

If 4D reaches North, North having support and diamond shortage you leave him

no choice but to bid 4S, if you bid 3D, he has a choice.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[gszes]

bridge is a game of %. We have 15 hcp a long great suit

and we should be feeling very optimistic about the future

of this hand. This doesn't mean it will always work out well

but our side should have way more than half the deck and

normally the hand will be ours ranging from 3d to 7n. An

opening bid of 5d will cause us to miss only a tiny portion of

those probable contracts especially the slams What else can

p do but pass after 5d looking at Axxx Axxxx void Axxxx> and 6n

wouldnt even be on the radar.

 

The fact that the opponents will get a portion of the hands is

what we mean by %.

Open 1d

and do not let the pessimists out there convince you otherwise.

There is no law against the opps making a contract now and

then and contray to opinion it is not all that much fun going

down 3x vul opposite nothing for the opps. The ones opening 5d

have been playing way too much goulash.

 

IMO once we open 1d we are probably best served by remaining

silent. P was unable to respond so our chances of making

anything but a partial are small and any number of diamonds will

merely convince the opps(s) short in dia that p has little wasted there.

Opting to bid 5d now is much better than in 1st seat but once again

we have no idea just how weak p is and we are making it a ton easier

for the opps to x and possibly set us a fortune.

[JLOGIC]

I think opening 5D is a complete joke. I would just bid 3D now.

[MrAce]

Maybe -just maybe- the opponent with the short diamonds can recognisze the 30 point deck by simply looking in his hand?

 

Looking his hand he can see short diamonds, true. But i am not sure about recognizing 30 hcp deck just because someone opened 1 minor and he has shortness in that suit.

 

Idk, perhaps i am over analyzing this.

[mfa1010]

1♦ then 3♦. Two stiff kings are extremely ugly for a 5♦ opening bid. I don't see the point in bidding more than 3♦ the second time. We won't preempt them out of anything. We surely can't make more than 9 tricks at the very most. And partner might have many major suit cards so that 3♦ will buy the contract or they will go down in whatever they bid.