manudude03 Posted March 24, 2013 Report Share Posted March 24, 2013 [hv=pc=n&s=sha842dajt9842cq6&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1h2d2h3h4h]133|200[/hv] Partner has shown a good raise, your call? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 many many ways to see 5d making not so many for 6dits unfortunate 4s is not available but life is like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 partner has denied spades with 3♥ so there is a big double fit, my main concern is that they don't defend over 6♦ because they are making a lot of tricks. Sadly my only choices are 4NT, 5♦ and 6♦. I will go with 4NT mudding the waters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 partner has denied spades with 3♥ so there is a big double fit, my main concern is that they don't defend over 6♦ because they are making a lot of tricks. Sadly my only choices are 4NT, 5♦ and 6♦. I will go with 4NT mudding the waters.But he also hasn't bid 4♣ fit, what shape do you think he has ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ggwhiz Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 cue bid my ♣Q6 and hope for the best? Which would be good unless it goes float. :o :ph34r: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 partner has denied spades with 3♥ ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 I'll try 6♦, which I expect to make when partner has the ♣A or K, or ♠A and they lead don't lead a club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 What I don't see so far is any attempt to understand partner's probable hand type. He didn't splinter, despite being marked with 0-1 heart...given RHO's blast on limited high card, there is a good chance of 0. He didn't blast 5♦, as he would do with Kxxx in diamonds, not much defence, and a void diamond...or even a stiff. So he rates to have soft black cards. Too much defence to take an advance save, and not enough pure offence to splinter. I'd guess he has 3 trumps quite often. Even so, and assuming I am correct, it still seems to me to be a toss-up as to whether slam is going to make. Note that slam will make on a lot of hands on which it would fail on double dummy defence. I don't see any way of involving partner. A fake 4N might work, but it is really not much different than blasting. After all, you might be down off the top opposite 2 keys with the trump Queen or might be cold opposite no keycard: picture Kxxx x Qxxxx KJx (I'm not saying that is or isn't a 3♥call, merely quickly making up a hand cold for slam with no keycards). I don't think 5♣ is passable, but what does it accomplish other than make you sweat waiting to see whether partner agrees? How is he to know how to evaluate? I swing low, and settle for 5♦. Btw, I didn't see anyone double: there is a chance for 500 or 800 opposite our 400/420, if partner has strategic black cards and we can tap declarer, but I think the odds are against this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 I bid 6♦. I think it makes often enough to be worth bidding, and I think I know what to do to 6♥ if partner doesn't do it first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Molyb Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 Hmmm, based on the auction, I'm actually east.6♦ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 I bid 6♦. I think it makes often enough to be worth bidding, and I think I know what to do to 6♥ if partner doesn't do it first.Do you play in games in which the opps would ever bid 6♥? At equal? Wow. Clearly, if playing in such weak fields, one should bid 6♦ for two reasons. One is that they may save and the other is that they must be so bad that your odds of misdefence go way up :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 Do you play in games in which the opps would ever bid 6♥? At equal? Wow. Clearly, if playing in such weak fields, one should bid 6♦ for two reasons. One is that they may save and the other is that they must be so bad that your odds of misdefence go way up :PNot often, but I made the point because I hate the auctions where I bid 5♦ and don't know what to do over 5♥. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted March 25, 2013 Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 Not often, but I made the point because I hate the auctions where I bid 5♦ and don't know what to do over 5♥.Well, it seems to me that if you have decided NOT to bid slam, hence 5♦, it would be very strange to refrain from doubling. I'm not even going to get into the fp/not fp situation since I think this is one of those auctions on which there could be logical disagreement. I wouldn't take it as an fp situation, since we were never in a force beyond 4♦: my 5♦ call might be a save. Others may disagree :D Obviously, if it were a fp situation, that would be perfect: indeed, if we knew that (1) they'd take the push and (2) it was an fp, then 5♦ is vastly superior to 6♦, since we can express both doubt and interest in slam, which seems a perfect description. It is very tough to come up with a layout on which they can get out for less than 500 even if hearts are 3=0=6=4. I don't believe partner has Kxxx or KQxx in diamonds and a heart void, btw. Those holdings should get an immediate 5♦ call, not 3♥. If he has a heart void, I'd expect something like 4=0=3=6. Since I expect partner to have some defensive values in the blacks, we'd be very unlucky if they could run either black suit as a surrogate trump suit, which is the usual counter to being tapped...tap the defenders back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 6D seems odds on to make so I would just bid it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 I will bid what will probably make and that is 5D, not 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lycier Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 I'd bid 4♠ to show a control in ♠,and then I will bid up to 6♦ if the partner can be able to cuebid 5♣,otherwise only sign off on 5♦. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 I'd bid 4♠ to show a control in ♠,and then I will bid up to 6♦ if the partner can be able to cuebid 5♣,otherwise only sign off on 5♦.This is what I do with 6 or 7 diamonds and 4 spades offering the contract a level lower if partner wants to pass/bid 5♠ over 5♥, no thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 4NT - DI (general slam try in this case), and then sign off over 5♣ - my guess is slam is on about a third of the time, so I leave it to partner. He will often be 4135 (so llefty is 53M??m righty 45M??m) given no splinter, so there is a big double fit. I'm very tempted to double. Even though we are very unlikely to set up a force, the hand rates to play pretty badly for them, but slam prospects are just a tad too good to take the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewj Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 6D for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 ... my guess is slam is on about a third of the time ...This seems a little pessimistic. Still, you have shown proficiency with data. I would be interested in a sim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 So far we have seen a variety of slam tries. We have 4N as a fake keycard. I think that we can all see that this can't actually help our decision making, since no likely response will tell us anything useful. We have 4N as a general slam try, but the fact that only one poster suggested it, and another one proposed 4N as keycard, reveals the dangers of using adjective bridge. Partner often has a different understanding. I will say that I think that 4N as a general slam try makes sense, in that we are relatively more likely to want to use it this way than as keycard. However, I doubt that many partnerships have discussed this and this is definitely not an interpretation one would expect even a good partner to assume absent such discussion. We have 4♠, but the flaw there is obvious. Partner is odds-on to pass, since this is NATURAL call. It is exactly how one bids with 4=6 in spades and diamonds and a willingness to save/bid game to make in diamonds, while checking back for the 4-4 spade fit. This is a no-brainer and those who chose 4♠ have allowed their desire that it be a cuebid to completely override common sense. We have 5♣. While that should, I think, be forcing, I would be worried that partner may disagree. And even if he didn't pass, I fail to see how our 'cuebid', if he sees it that way, would help him make a good decision. I think it therefore gets back to making the decision now, without help. We have posters thinking that slam is odds on, so they bid it. We have posters thinking slam is against the odds, so bidding 5. I still cleave to the view that partner's 3♥ call suggests a hand that makes slam a relatively poor choice. I'd guess, and it is a guess, that slam will be cold about 25% of the time and would be making on the lead about another 10-20% of the time and would be down a little more than half the time. So I stick with my 5♦ without a lot of conviction. I would change to Phil's 4N in a heartbeat if I were allowed to announce: 4N, general slam try :P Tho, on second thoughts, '4♠, void-showing' would be even better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilKing Posted March 26, 2013 Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 This seems a little pessimistic. Still, you have shown proficiency with data. I would be interested in a sim. I don't think sims are good for this kind of spot, but since partner has not splintered, I think that weights his set of hands towards 1-3 in the reds, even though there are plenty of hands that would cue rather than splinter even holding a fourth trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted March 27, 2013 Report Share Posted March 27, 2013 6♦ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted March 27, 2013 Report Share Posted March 27, 2013 He didn't splinter, despite being marked with 0-1 heart...given RHO's blast on limited high card, there is a good chance of 0. I don't like bypassing 3NT with minor fit, even if you disagree with whatever partner has for 3♥ here I don't think he denies a hand that would splinter if our fit was a major. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manudude03 Posted March 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2013 Approximate full hands below (pips may have moved, on a train here with no hand records to look at). [hv=pc=n&s=sha853dajt9863cq6&w=sk8653ht96d5ct975&n=st742h4dkq72ca843&e=saqj9hkqj72d4ckj2&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1h2d2h3h4h6dppp]399|300[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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