thin 4S

[manudude03]

[hv=pc=n&s=sa8742ha5dqt6cqj4&n=sqt65h86432dkj87c&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=p1c1s1n4sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

I didn't think this was as hard as teammates suggested. Anyway, you're in 4S on the ♣2 lead (2nd/4th, low from Hxx).

 

If it helps, there was a noticeable hesitation on the other side of the screen, you're not sure if it was partner or RHO tanking though (or both).

The defense will switch to hearts as soon as possible (unless there is an obvious set).

[Alik1974]

One way to make would be via 4 trumps, 2 ♣ruffs, 1 ♥ and 3♦. But to enjoy the long♦ is unlikely, because this requires that trumps are drawn already. Even if ♦ are 3-3 and trumps 2-2, opponents will be able to play yet another ♣ when in with the ♦A and dummy will be left with ♠Q10 with the K still out. Or, if a trump is played to the Ace, trump to the Queen, opps get in with the trump King, and play a ♣. Then they duck the ♦A till the third round and dummy has no entry.

 

You need trumps to be 2-2 in order to make. You can try for ten tricks by way of 3 ♣ ruffs, 2 ♦ tricks, 1 ♥ tricks and 4♠ tricks (♠ must splt 2-2)

 

Because a trump promotion is more possible in ♥ than in ♦, you should try to get to the ♦Q rather than the ♥A at trick 2.

[rhm]

You need trumps to be 2-2 in order to make.

Why?

Assume diamonds to be 3-3 and trumps not 4-0.

Ruff and play the diamond king from the table and continue with diamonds until the ace is taken.

If diamonds are 3-3 opponents will switch to hearts.

Win and ruff a club.

Go tho the ace of spades, play your remaining diamonds from hand and ruff your last club.

Finally play the fourth diamond to discard your heart loser.

Opponents get a diamond and 2 trump tricks.

 

Other lines seem to require more than a 3-3 break.

There are some not so unlikely 4-2 diamond layouts like East holding 1♠-4♥-2♦-6♣ with ♦Ax where this line also makes

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Cyberyeti]

I think the 1N bid means spades are likely to be 3-1.

 

That W has not raised clubs suggests they are often 4-6 or possibly 3-7, and any red suit shortage may well be on your right.

 

I think it's very likely that if diamonds are 3-3 then hearts may well be also.

 

Another possibility is 3(34)3 opposite 1(32)7 where you can possibly cash the 4th diamond after one round of trumps.

 

So how do we combine chances ? Ruff the club, diamond to the 10 and ace, heart switch won by the A, club ruff, spade to the A, club ruff and if the Q and K♦ stand up we're home.

 

I think this comes to the same thing as Rainer's line as with ♦Axxx W will hold up and secure either a ruff or the ability to draw trumps if you play them, but may gain vs 9xxx/Ax in a 1327 as Rainer's line seems to block the diamonds. If opps duck the 10♦ in my line, I take the club ruff and play a diamond to the Q. If this holds, I need diamonds 3-3 as I play the third one now.

[rhm]

 

 

I think this comes to the same thing as Rainer's line as with ♦Axxx W will hold up and secure either a ruff or the ability to draw trumps if you play them, but may gain vs 9xxx/Ax in a 1327 as Rainer's line seems to block the diamonds.

I do not get your point.

My line simply requires that the third diamond round stands up. No need to overtake any diamonds.

The ♦K at trick 2 is simply designed to make it more difficult to hold up the ♦A in case a diamond ruff threatens.

Maybe a diamond to the queen at trick 2 would be more effective, but diamonds never block.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[Cyberyeti]

I do not get your point.

My line simply requires that the third diamond round stands up. No need to overtake any diamonds.

The ♦K at trick 2 is simply designed to make it more difficult to hold up the ♦A in case a diamond ruff threatens.

Maybe a diamond to the queen at trick 2 would be more effective, but diamonds never block.

 

Rainer Herrmann

The J holds, you lead a small one, they take the A, you can have Q or 10 opposite K8 with a defender holding 9x so they do temporarily block, but you can disentangle this, you have enough entries (I wasn't sure you could draw the round of trumps before playing the third diamond and have an entry to table for the fourth one but you can). I would have thought leading dummy's J is much more likely to get them to duck the diamond, I think E always ducks J, and W is much more likely to take the Axxx if you play small to the Q and it seems you're hoping it's an entry. E may even fear stiff Q and hop the A occasionally, I think it's much less likely if you lead the J.

 

Btw, did you edit your post as when I replied to it the last line about the Ax scenarios didn't show up ?