One way or another...

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&p=cas3c4cqsas5s2s7sksts4s9dad7d3d4d6d9dkd2&s=sqj642hat5dkt53cq&n=sak83hkj8432daj6c&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1s(11-15)2c5c(exc)6cp(D0P1)p6d(%21sQ%3F)p6h(undiscussed)p7sppp]640|400[/hv]

 

Opps play std carding if it matters, lead rushinow.

[billw55]

Interesting. The more clubs west has, the fewer empty spaces he has, but also the more likely he would be to preempt without side values.

 

I suppose I have little to lose by playing the ♦KA first. Once in a while the queen will drop which might tell me something. In the likely case that I learn nothing, I suppose I will try ♥J from dummy; if no cover or hitch, then ace and hook west.

[Fluffy]

Are you one of those who play the 10, see the 9 on LHO's hands and still finese against the queen in caso LHO was trying to fool you?

[billw55]

Are you one of those who play the 10, see the 9 on LHO's hands and still finese against the queen in caso LHO was trying to fool you?

Depends on my LHO. I myself will sometimes play the 9 in such a situation, so I must at least consider it.

[manudude03]

6C is a highly unusual bid in this sequence. I guess they could be 2227 (I don't think East would be bidding 6C with 2236), but I'd guess 2137 or 2146 are more likely. I'm finessing against West.

[gwnn]

W rates to have less clubs and more hcp than E, so I'm playing him for the queen. This is not a scientific argument.

[JLOGIC]

Seems like LHO has Qxxx of diamonds. Is LHO more likely to have xx Qx Qxxx AKJxx type of a hand (might not overcall esp without CJ?) or xx x Qxxx AKJxxx (might preempt esp with CJ)? Do we know?

[Fluffy]

They are erratic, but if you are going to trust their cards, ♣A lead is inconsistent with 5 to the AK on rushinow I think.

[gszes]

east bid 6c at even wioth so far no shape (ther than a bunch of

clubs) its hard to imagine them bidding 6c w/o some type of shape

and the only thing left is short hearts. I finesse W for the Q.

[mikeh]

While various other possibilities exist, assuming that LHO has been honest in telling us that he has an even number of diamonds, I think the main choices are xx Qxx xx AQJxxx opposite xx x Q109x Kxxxxx or the like, compared to xx x Q10xx AQJxxx opposite xx Qxx xx Kxxxxx

 

We could argue that the former is more consistent with the 6♣ call than the latter, but I don't buy it. East knew we were bidding slam no matter what, and that we were never going to stop off to double a slam when our combined trump holding rated to be x or xx opposite a void. He was trying to mess with us at almost no risk.

 

I happen to think that the second layout is more consistent with a 2♣ overcall than the first, so I'm going to play for 1=3 hearts. On a good day, West will have the grace to play his stiff Q and I can claim.

 

I am rejecting 5=7 clubs because the lead suggests AQ rather than AK, and AQJxx with a side red Queen or even xx Qx Q10xx AQJxx looks even less like a 2♣ overcall than my first two exemplars.

[mikeh]

Mike we had the stiff ♣ Q

oh

 

It doesn't detract from my choice; I still think that 2=1=4=6 is slightly more likely than 2=3=2=6 and significantly more likely than a 5 card club suit, especially if we infer that rho holds the club K.

[mikeh]

duplicate post

[MrAce]

While various other possibilities exist, assuming that LHO has been honest in telling us that he has an even number of diamonds, I think the main choices are xx Qxx xx AQJxxx opposite xx x Q109x Kxxxxx or the like, compared to xx x Q10xx AQJxxx opposite xx Qxx xx Kxxxxx

 

We could argue that the former is more consistent with the 6♣ call than the latter, but I don't buy it. East knew we were bidding slam no matter what, and that we were never going to stop off to double a slam when our combined trump holding rated to be x or xx opposite a void. He was trying to mess with us at almost no risk.

 

I happen to think that the second layout is more consistent with a 2♣ overcall than the first, so I'm going to play for 1=3 hearts. On a good day, West will have the grace to play his stiff Q and I can claim.

 

I am rejecting 5=7 clubs because the lead suggests AQ rather than AK, and AQJxx with a side red Queen or even xx Qx Q10xx AQJxx looks even less like a 2♣ overcall than my first two exemplars.

 

Mike we had the stiff ♣ Q.

 

I would play W to hold the ♥Q at the table, but i can easily construct hands where East holds it. I am with Csaba on this one. After all West just overcalled 2♣ but East is the one who saved at 6 level. In long run i expect East to hold a singleton most of the time and we know he ain't short in spades or diamonds.

 

Without the ♥Q West would be something like xx xx Qxx AJTxxx or xx x Qxxx AJTxxx. First one is not everyone's taste of 2♣ and second one may have overcalled 3♣. His pd is not coming from pass. But you never know, people have different borderlines especially when it comes to overcalls.

[quiddity]

Seems like LHO has Qxxx of diamonds.

 

Is this based on the diamond echo or something else?

 

While various other possibilities exist, assuming that LHO has been honest in telling us that he has an even number of diamonds...

 

Why would LHO give true count holding the queen with the jack in dummy? I would have guessed that LHO holds either xx or Qxx. Isn't it semi-normal to falsecard when holding the honor?

[mikeh]

Is this based on the diamond echo or something else?

 

 

 

Why would LHO give true count holding the queen with the jack in dummy? I would have guessed that LHO holds either xx or Qxx. Isn't it semi-normal to falsecard when holding the honor?

Someone gave honest count: they have 6 diamonds, and one said odd and the other said even. Given that we cashed the A, knowing that LHO held 4 wasn't going to help us at all in that suit. Why assume that it is RHO who falsecarded? It all depends on the level: in the local club most players might forget to hi-lo with xx , but they'd think it close to cheating to hi-lo from Qxx and weird not to do so from Q10xx.

 

In addition it should NEVER become semi-normal to falsecard, except in the so-called mandatory false card situations and even then often the best strategy is to mix it up. It's like many players just beyond the beginner level holding QJ tight routinely 'falsecard' with the Q. Against one of them, and I've played quite a few, when they play the J instead, the restricted choice odds have essentially climbed to close to 100%.

 

Personally, my approach when defending slams against a competent declarer,where I trust partner to be a good defender and I cannot make a clear signal that cannot cost and may help, is that I almost always play my cards up the line. I just don't give any signal at all.

 

That does require a partner who can draw inferences, and there are times when one has to signal in order to help out partner. You may know that partner is possibly going to get pseudo-squeezed if you leave him in the dark about shape, or you may want to let partner know that you have one suit tied up and he can let it go, and so on. But especially when declarer's shape is known or readily inferred (as here), and declarer has a guess, just play cards up the line every time.

 

Falsecarding is engaging in poker. I'm a bad poker player. If you're good....if you read your opp more than he reads you, your best strategy may be different :D

 

Please note that I am speaking about slams and especially grands and that even so there are exceptions.

[quiddity]

Someone gave honest count: they have 6 diamonds, and one said odd and the other said even. Given that we cashed the A, knowing that LHO held 4 wasn't going to help us at all in that suit. Why assume that it is RHO who falsecarded? It all depends on the level: in the local club most players might forget to hi-lo with xx , but they'd think it close to cheating to hi-lo from Qxx and weird not to do so from Q10xx.

 

I don't assume it is RHO who falsecarded - I assume whoever holds the queen falsecarded. I thought this was standard practice, the point being that defenders can signal count to each other without telling declarer if the suit is breaking 3-3 or 4-2.

[gnasher]

Obviously it depends on the opponents, but I'd be suspicious of any count signals I was given here. They really ought to be able to see that the diamond suit is irrelevant.

 

I'd just play the hand that bid at the six-level for a singleton. Maybe he planned this in the bidding, by bidding 6♣ with ♥Qx to talk me into going down, but most people aren't that clever.

[Codo]

Yes after I never ever mentioned the critical heart suit, it must be VERY clever to bid 6 ♣ with Qx in hearts...Luckily way beyond the capabilities of my usual opponents. I would fear more to go down against some random muggles who bid 6 clubs with a 2236 hand...

I play for the finesse too...

[WellSpyder]

I still seem to be alone in the poll, though mikeh has explained in his posts why he would do the same. Dying to know whether my choice would have been as unsuccessful as most of my two-way finesses seem to be.....

[PhilKing]

I still seem to be alone in the poll, though mikeh has explained in his posts why he would do the same. Dying to know whether my choice would have been as unsuccessful as most of my two-way finesses seem to be.....

 

But his reason was predicated on West having the ♣AQ.

 

And you can always play for the drop :ph34r:. This is another brilliant hand for the underrated Ghestem convention, since the absence of a WJO would cloud the issue nicely.

[PhilKing]

Surely when RHO has hauled out exclusion keycard at his first call, and one is looking at 6 card support for partner, one may reasonably think that the opps are going to slam no matter what you bid......when partner is favourite to hold 6 cards in our suit, thus giving us a 12 card fit, just how often are the opps ever going to be able to double us?

 

Even if they want to double us for penalty, there is a good chance that they literally cannot do it because they are playing DOPI.

 

Thus opener will double with 0 keycards and how often does a 1♠ opener have zero keycards? And he'll pass with 1, but try creating an exclusion hand that would double 6♣ for penalty, rather than bidding slam, if that happened. East knows that we can't possibly work out if he bid on say 0=4=3=6, with his partner being say 3=1=3=6 (can you imagine getting rich on that layout?) or the 2=3=2=6 I am playing him for.

 

And if opener has (unusually) 2 keycards, then he bids over 6♣ and deprives his side of the ability to double anyway.

 

Now, if your argument was that this sort of thinking is beyond East, presumably because we have made an assumption to that effect, I can see why you might conclude that E should have a stiff.

 

I don't make that assumption: to the contrary, I assume that any East looking at any 6 card fit would want to take away the 5 level and, more importantly, the ability to explore for grand that passing 5♣ permits.

 

As it is, I think the guess for the Q♥ is very close and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to have guessed wrong. However, I don't see why we should assume that E is incapable of thinking as I have outlined, so I think that hooking West because of E's 6♣ is an overly-simplistic approach.

 

Btw, my analysis is absolutely not based on the notion that East foresaw the problem and was being cute with Qx♥. I think that thinking that way is getting way too far down the rabbit-hole.

 

I think all this is pretty much true, but the trouble is that 6♣ may beget 7♣ from partner when he places us with a hand that wasn't offering 1100 in six.

[mikeh]

Obviously it depends on the opponents, but I'd be suspicious of any count signals I was given here. They really ought to be able to see that the diamond suit is irrelevant.

 

I'd just play the hand that bid at the six-level for a singleton. Maybe he planned this in the bidding, by bidding 6♣ with ♥Qx to talk me into going down, but most people aren't that clever.

Surely when RHO has hauled out exclusion keycard at his first call, and one is looking at 6 card support for partner, one may reasonably think that the opps are going to slam no matter what you bid......when partner is favourite to hold 6 cards in our suit, thus giving us a 12 card fit, just how often are the opps ever going to be able to double us?

 

Even if they want to double us for penalty, there is a good chance that they literally cannot do it because they are playing DOPI.

 

Thus opener will double with 0 keycards and how often does a 1♠ opener have zero keycards? And he'll pass with 1, but try creating an exclusion hand that would double 6♣ for penalty, rather than bidding slam, if that happened. East knows that we can't possibly work out if he bid on say 0=4=3=6, with his partner being say 3=1=3=6 (can you imagine getting rich on that layout?) or the 2=3=2=6 I am playing him for.

 

And if opener has (unusually) 2 keycards, then he bids over 6♣ and deprives his side of the ability to double anyway.

 

Now, if your argument was that this sort of thinking is beyond East, presumably because we have made an assumption to that effect, I can see why you might conclude that E should have a stiff.

 

I don't make that assumption: to the contrary, I assume that any East looking at any 6 card fit would want to take away the 5 level and, more importantly, the ability to explore for grand that passing 5♣ permits.

 

As it is, I think the guess for the Q♥ is very close and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to have guessed wrong. However, I don't see why we should assume that E is incapable of thinking as I have outlined, so I think that hooking West because of E's 6♣ is an overly-simplistic approach.

 

Btw, my analysis is absolutely not based on the notion that East foresaw the problem and was being cute with Qx♥. I think that thinking that way is getting way too far down the rabbit-hole.

[mikeh]

I think all this is pretty much true, but the trouble is that 6♣ may beget 7♣ from partner when he places us with a hand that wasn't offering 1100 in six.

Really?

 

When one makes the opps guess, and they guess to bid a small slam, and we are at equal, what sort of partner/hand finds a 7 level save?

 

If I bid 6♣in this auction, with partner having overcalled 2♣, rather than preempting, it wouldn't occur to me that partner would see my 6♣ call as inviting a 7-level dive at equal.

 

We don't jam the opps, find them take a conservative position, and then dive. 5♣, in any sane partnership, is an incredibly strong slam move, often with aspirations towards grand. After all, he consumed 4 levels of bidding and bypassed many ways of showing a gf hand. All he needed, in order to place the contract, is to know how many keycards partner has.

 

East is in a position in which jamming makes sense and he should be allowed to jam without fearing that his partner fails to understand the situation.

 

If, as you say, my thinking, in terms of how East should analyze his options, is correct, why assume that West is listening to a different auction?

[PhilKing]

Really?

 

When one makes the opps guess, and they guess to bid a small slam, and we are at equal, what sort of partner/hand finds a 7 level save?

 

If I bid 6♣in this auction, with partner having overcalled 2♣, rather than preempting, it wouldn't occur to me that partner would see my 6♣ call as inviting a 7-level dive at equal.

 

We don't jam the opps, find them take a conservative position, and then dive. 5♣, in any sane partnership, is an incredibly strong slam move, often with aspirations towards grand. After all, he consumed 4 levels of bidding and bypassed many ways of showing a gf hand. All he needed, in order to place the contract, is to know how many keycards partner has.

 

East is in a position in which jamming makes sense and he should be allowed to jam without fearing that his partner fails to understand the situation.

 

If, as you say, my thinking, in terms of how East should analyze his options, is correct, why assume that West is listening to a different auction?

 

Well, if your way of thinking is correct, clearly he shouldn't, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that we are playing against a pair who does not share that view.

 

Even if two thirds of the world do it your way, and we don't know which category the opposition fall into, then we are still veering towards placing East with shape more often than West.

[Free]

The lead is a joke. Against grand there's no reason to lead honestly. Also, why would West lead an unsupported Ace after exclusion BW? It wouldn't be the first time that the Ace gets ruffed and declarer holds ♣K. On the other hand, West may think it's safe enough after his partner raised to 6. Basically, ♣K could be anywhere.

 

However, I don't believe East would raise to 6♣ on a balanced hand with only a 6 card suit at equal vulnerability. I think there's more chance of West having ♣AKJxx rather than a 6 card suit (and East having 7 ♣s). West overcalled without a passed partner, so his bid must be legit. East therefore must have a very weak hand, so probably 'some' distribution. I give East singleton or void ♥ since he's shown 2♠ and 2+♦ already. I'll start with ♥A and finesse against West.