You know it's not going to be your night when...

[daveharty]

[hv=pc=n&s=s32haqtdt9654c987&w=sakt875hj32dkqcq6&n=shk654da832ckj542&e=sqj964h987dj7cat3&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1c1sp2s(%21%21%21)ppp]399|300[/hv]

 

I was sitting North. My partner led a club; when the dummy came down, even he--the most even-tempered man I know--could barely "keep his countenance."

 

Eight tricks was the limit.

 

"That was a very sound raise," I observed to West after the hand.

 

"I was a little worried that I might have too good a hand, but all partner did was overcall, you know," he replied.

 

Indeed.

[Cyberyeti]

Serves N right for not making the obvious X of 2♠, NS can make 5♦ on normal defence and a good guess in the club suit and certainly should be bidding as far as 3.

[JLOGIC]

It isn't as bad to not X as it seems, when partner doesn't bid over 1S and they just raise to 2 it is very likely that either partner is just broke and your LHO has a good hand, in which case Xing will just help him play the hand (and might get you into trouble if partner is 5332 and they decide to just double you), or that partner has spade length and might pass when he wasn't going to reopen with a pen X.

 

And if partner does have only 3 spades or 4 small we are going to get outbid anyways, and given that he would have neg Xed with 4 hearts and some values or bid 2C with 4 clubs and some values, his most likely length is spades, it is possible he has diamonds but even then we are likely only gaining when partner has 4 spades and 5 diamond hand types.

 

Ofc that analysis does not hold here where they have 11 spades and 23 HCP and only raised to 2S and can only make 2 while we make 5D but that is not really related to what is usually happening imo.

 

Personally I think it's usually pretty bad to X, but white/red at MP vs bad opps is a time where I'd consider it (we might have a good save, they might misjudge what to do, we might push them up and they drop a trick, they are unlikely to play it a trick better because our bid helped them, etc). If you add in partner won't sit it light then it's probably pretty good.

[lalldonn]

I wouldn't double as north, but I would balance with 2NT as south I think. But maybe I'm just resulting since he has nothing in the minors, but I would definitely consider letting them play 2♠ more the fault of south than north at least.

[JLOGIC]

I wouldn't double as north, but I would balance with 2NT as south I think. But maybe I'm just resulting since he has nothing in the minors, but I would definitely consider letting them play 2♠ more the fault of south than north at least.

 

Good point, I didn't notice south had a balance.

[Cyberyeti]

Good point, I didn't notice south had a balance.

I didn't feel S did have a balance, isn't N quite likely to hold a 3424 13 count here ?

 

S is much closer to a balance if you're playing weak no trump so this holding is excluded.

[JLOGIC]

3424 seems like his single most likely shape, but that is probably often true when you know your opps have an 8+ card fit, partners most likely shape is the one that gives you 3 7 card fits. I doubt he has 3424 that often compared to all of 3325, 3235, 3244(depending on which minor you open?), 2335, 2434, 2344 (depending on which minor you open), 3316, 3226, 2326, 2236, and the less likely shapes that are remotely possible (stiff heart, stiff spade types).

 

I think passing it out is worse than not Xing with the north hand (I usually wouldn't X and usually would balance), but I don't think either are horrible crimes, I just think it pays to balance with 6 points and 2 low spades when you haven't shown any values and you're white at MP. Obv this actual hand is from outer space lol.

[mikeh]

I wouldn't balance as S, tho maybe I should.

 

I do think that the auction strongly suggests partner holds a weak 1N type of hand, with 3 card spade length being slightly more probable than 2, and vastly more probable than one, and that the possibility of a void is so remote as to not be worth thinking about.

 

Give partner some random balanced 12 or 13 count, and we will be going set most of the time, usually by 2 tricks and sometimes 3.

 

However, one doesn't always get doubled when one should be, and sometimes the opps bid one more themselves.

 

So at mps, I think S should balance 2N, but I know myself well enough that I don't think I'd do it.

 

Imps, an insta pass.

[JLOGIC]

Oh,and one other thing, it is not necessarily a disaster or close to it if we balance and play it white opposite 3424. Sure we might go down 3 but that's what it's all about, if you can hold it to down 2 it will USUALLY be ok (this might be the hand where 2S can go down but they still have over half the deck and 8 spades, it rates to make, and at least some tables will make). I always say just play every partscore hand when white at MP vs bad opps, because these hands are very difficult for the defense and you scramble 7 tricks a surprising amount of the time for a ridiculous big AVE+ board. And sometimes they misjudge and compete, you never know.

 

The flip side is, if we do actually have a fit which we usually will, it is very good to be bidding since 2S is more likely to make and we can almost certainly get out for down 2. This kind of thing puts a lot of pressure on them.

 

You may be wondering why I am making these arguments for south balancing but not for north, but I think it makes a big difference that north is in a live auction, not that he will go for a number but that generally he is outgunned and the opps are about to bid 4S so giving away that info is bad, and if they're not partner MUST (this hand excluded), have spade length, and we really don't want to induce a light pass. Having a spade void and an 11 count is very weird here and irl its almost always going 4S on your left, or partner is going to have long spades (and if he wants to double still he can, but we certainly don't want to endplay him into a light pass).

 

Also, the north hand is unlimited, we would also double with an 18 count or a 15 count so it makes it hard for partner to evaluate. The south hand is limited by his initial pass, and is truly in a balancing seat, and nothing weird is happening as far as he knows.

Edited March 8, 2013 by JLOGIC

[Alik1974]

I think it's the type of hand that you are bound to lose because the opponents are weak. Balancing as South is certainly an option, but I am not convinved that it is a winning action (considering all possible deals where this auction could have occured and also all types of opponents), If you know beforehand that the opponents are weak, then it is a little different.

[gszes]

good discussion hand especially pointing out the impossibility of 2n

being anything but a minor suit take out (with probably long dia) by S

(which I would have used).

 

I do not agree with playing all white contracts at the 3 level but this one offers

a very good shot at having a fit and if we can play 3c what appears to be a ruffing

value in the short hand (naturally i am wrong).

 

I would take the same action at IMPS mainly because I have little fear the opps

belong in 4s. Bidding here is mainly just to try and get them to push.