Find a lead

[mr1303]

[hv=pc=n&s=st976hkdajt2cjt63&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1hp2cp2hp4np5cp6hppp]133|200[/hv]

 

Acol land. 2H was not forcing, and if you ask you're told that 5C shows 0 or 3 key cards they think.

 

What do you lead here?

 

Opps are not very good.

[billw55]

Opps are not very good.

In that case my first impulse is to cash ♦A and hope he hooks into my stiff ♥K.

[Zelandakh]

In that case my first impulse is to cash ♦A and hope he hooks into my stiff ♥K.

RHO showed 0 or 3 key cards and we can deduce from this that LHO has 0 or 3 key cards. Which way round do you think these will be given that LHO initiated RKCB opposite a minimum opener? Is it likely that declarer will finesse into us?

[billw55]

RHO showed 0 or 3 key cards and we can deduce from this that LHO has 0 or 3 key cards. Which way round do you think these will be given that LHO initiated RKCB opposite a minimum opener? Is it likely that declarer will finesse into us?

hmmm .. good point.

[PhilKing]

♦A - no second choice. ♥Txx in partner's hand may be enough to beat this, and our ace may disappear if we don't cash it.

 

My real hope is that we have several winners to cash. If they can bid a slam missing two key cards, why not three?

[Finch]

Agree ♦A. They could be off a lot of keycards.

[P_Marlowe]

The Ace.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Fluffy]

for ♦A to be needed it loks like declarer would have to have 10 cards in the majors and ♣AKQ, or some other lay out where he ruffs out ♣J runs enough trumps and then the diamond goes away.

 

For a non diamond lead to be right all you need is that both opps are balanced with slow diamond or spade loser. I would go for a spade lead.

[mikeh]

RHO showed 0 or 3 key cards and we can deduce from this that LHO has 0 or 3 key cards. Which way round do you think these will be given that LHO initiated RKCB opposite a minimum opener? Is it likely that declarer will finesse into us?

Why would we think LHO committed to slam with 3 keycards opposite a response that, if reliable, suggested that they held either 6 of the 5 keycards or 3 of them?

 

I'd expect LHO to hold precisely 2 keycards, but to have rejected looking for grand on the basis that the 2♥ nonforcing bid made it unrealistic.

 

If I am correct, then we hold 3 keycards and the lead almost certainly doesn't matter. I doubt the problem would be posted, so my logic has, I think, missed the point of the hand.

 

Anyway, I think the diamond A is still clear. I'm worried that maybe they hold 11 trump, missing the AK, and that one of them, maybe LHO, will get an immediate pitch.[hv=pc=n&w=sa4ht8542d7caqj97&e=skq6hqj9763dq9ck5]266|100[/hv]

 

Yes, the bidding sucks, and obviously this is just one of a myriad of possibilities, but we know they don't have a clue :P

[wyman]

for ♦A to be needed it loks like declarer would have to have 10 cards in the majors and ♣AKQ, or some other lay out where he ruffs out ♣J runs enough trumps and then the diamond goes away.

 

For a non diamond lead to be right all you need is that both opps are balanced with slow diamond or spade loser. I would go for a spade lead.

 

I did not think as deeply about the problem in all honestly, but my gut said to lead a spade, though I considered the diamond ace as a second choice. I also considered the king of hearts, which probably gives less away than a spade in the longrun.